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Economy

Opinion | It’s Not the Economy. It’s the Fascism.

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To spend more than a little time toggling between news sites of different bents is to notice a fierce debate over the American economy right now. Which matters more — the easing of inflation or the persistence of prices that many people can’t afford or accept? Low unemployment or high interest rates? Is the intensity of Americans’ bad feelings about the economy a sane response or a senseless funk estranged from their actual financial circumstances?

On such questions may the 2024 election turn, so the litigation of them is no surprise. It’s not just the economy, stupid. It’s the public relations war over it.

But never in my adult lifetime has that battle seemed so agonizingly beside the point, such a distraction from the most important questions before us. In 2024, it’s not the economy. It’s the democracy. It’s the decency. It’s the truth.

I’m not talking about what will influence voters most. I’m talking about what should. And I write that knowing that I’ll be branded an elitist whose good fortune puts him out of touch with the concerns of people living paycheck to paycheck or priced out of housing and medical care. I am lucky — privileged, to use and own the word of the moment — and I’m an imperfect messenger, as blinded by the peculiarities of his experience in the world as others are by theirs.

But I don’t see any clear evidence that a change of presidents would equal an uptick in Americans’ living standards. And 2024, in any case, isn’t shaping up to be a normal election with normal stakes or anything close to that, at least not if Donald Trump winds up with the Republican presidential nomination — the likeliest outcome, to judge by current conditions. Not if he’s beaten by a Republican who had to buy into his fictions or emulate his ugliness to claim the prize. Not if the Republican Party remains hostage to the extremism on display in the House over these past few months.

That assessment isn’t Trump derangement syndrome. It’s straightforward observation, consistent with Liz Cheney’s new memoir, “Oath and Honor,” at which my Times colleague Peter Baker got an advance peek. Cheney describes House Republicans’ enduring surrender to Trump as cowardly and cynical, and she’s cleareyed on what his nomination in 2024 would mean. “We will be voting on whether to preserve our republic,” she writes. “As a nation, we can endure damaging policies for a four-year term. But we cannot survive a president willing to terminate our Constitution.”

Trump has been saying, doing and contemplating some especially terrifying things lately, and while many of them wash over a populace exhausted by and inured to his puerile rants, outlandish provocations and petty-dictator diatribes, they’re not just the same old same old.

They’re not just theater, either. Long gone are the days when Trump’s darkest comments and direst vows could be dismissed as perverse performance art — as huffing and puffing that wouldn’t and couldn’t amount to all that much. That soothing myth died once and for all during the final months of his presidency, when he layered the Big Lie atop the heaving mountain of little and medium-size ones and cheered on a mob making its way to the Capitol.

And the notion that he’d at some point be contained by fellow Republicans who would put up with only so much? What a quaint hope that was. Most of those Republicans cowered before him. Most still do. The two current runners-up for the Republican presidential nomination, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, raised their hands when they were asked, during a debate in August, about whether they’d support Trump as the party’s nominee even if he was convicted of felonies. That’s why the stakes of this election are titanic even without Trump on the ballot. The stain of him is deep and wide.

The fact of him is scarier and scarier. Last week he sent out his Thanksgiving message, a social media post whose eccentric punctuation and erratic capitalization were the typographical equivalent of spittle, at 2 a.m., and he didn’t use it to wish supporters and other Americans well. He roasted his perceived enemies, presenting a platter of slurs with all the semantic trimmings: “Radical Left Lunatics,” “Psycho,” “Marxists,” “Communists.”

Just two weeks earlier, for Veterans Day, he traded inspiration for fulmination in a speech in New Hampshire, promising to “root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical-left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country.” Like vermin! And the month before that, he said that undocumented immigrants were “poisoning the blood of our country.” Trump has been saying, doing and contemplating some especially terrifying things lately

His bastard music is consequential because it’s paired with a “series of plans by Mr. Trump and his allies that would upend core elements of American governance, democracy, foreign policy and the rule of law if he regained the White House,” as Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and Charlie Savage wrote in a recent Times article that all voters should read once, then read again, then commit to memory so they can refer to it constantly. Those plans include the use of military funds for huge detention camps for undocumented immigrants, a Justice Department turned into a personal revenge force and ideological litmus tests for federal employees to ensure maximal sycophancy.

Have Haley and DeSantis grabbed hold of this potent ammunition to make a more forceful case for themselves? Hardly. They’re no more eager to take on Trump the budding fascist than they are to take on Trump the practiced fantasist, because they prioritize coddling his supporters and gaining power over standing up for the rule of law and the integrity of democracy. And DeSantis, in any case, is styling himself as the efficient version of Trump — more bang for your contemptuous buck.

It’s in that context that a focus on the prices of eggs and gas seems, well, like a luxury.


A ram with attitude in the Northumberland countryside.Getty Images

David Sedaris has been busy! In The New Yorker last week, he acknowledged that “you can’t hold animals to human standards” — a cat that kills a songbird is simply being a cat, just as a wolf that devours a calf is following its nature. “That said, rams are assholes,” Sedaris wrote. “We’ve had them on our property for five years now, a slightly different mob every summer, and each new addition is meaner than the last. Light a bonfire in their pasture and they’d likely head-butt the flames, just to show them who’s who.” (Thanks to Susan Caruso of Glen Head, N.Y., for nominating this.) The essay’s title, with its nod to the novelist Thomas Harris and his protagonist Clarice Starling, provided additional delight: “The Violence of the Rams.”

A separate Sedaris essay — about hypersensitivity in general and hypercoddled children in particular — appeared last week in The Free Press. He observed, “Children now are like animals who have no natural predators left.” He’s clearly on a zoological bent.

Back to The New Yorker: Elizabeth Kolbert noted that the composition and impact of a product can be very different things. “Silicon chips are essentially made of quartz, although this is a bit like saying that the Mona Lisa is essentially made of linseed oil,” she wrote. (Stephen Markscheid, Wilmette, Ill.)

In The Guardian, Joel Golby raved about the streaming series “Slow Horses,” saying that its star, Gary Oldman, “looks so deliciously dreadful as Jackson Lamb, lank hair combed down with chipshop grease, a Fergie-red nose with pores the size of saucers, staggering around like a huge garlic bulb learned how to walk.” (Katie Baer, Pittsboro, N.C.)

In his newsletter Old Goats, Jonathan Alter paid tribute to Charlie Peters, the founder of The Washington Monthly: “In a world of received wisdom, Charlie was a genuinely original thinker, with a mind that forged ores of common sense into a brilliant alloy of skepticism and idealism.” (Peter Magnusson, Chico, Calif.)

In The Wall Street Journal, Greg Ip marveled at the grinding fiscal woes of South America’s third-most-populous country: “Argentina is the bedtime horror story that other economies use to scare each other.” (Derek Dorn, Brooklyn)

In The Age of Melbourne, Australia, Matthew Knott examined the recent ouster of Michael Pezzullo, Australia’s Department of Home Affairs secretary: “To say that Pezzullo knew where the bodies were buried in Home Affairs would be a massive understatement. More like he dug the burial plots, carved the tombstones and managed the cemetery’s day-to-day operations.” (Drew Tagliabue, Manhattan)

In The Washington Post, Quentin Letts imagined the thinking that preceded the recruitment of David Cameron back into Britain’s government: “The former P.M. is a deliciously smooth creature, as luxurious as a vintage Bentley. Smoky voice, peachy cheeks, a drawling bedside manner — he has all the political gifts. Best of all, his appointment would be a coup de théâtre. Surprise is an underrated commodity in politics, for it denies opponents the chance to get their insults in first.” (Marian Cannell, Durham, N.C.)

In The Times, Peter C. Baker described the experience of a “new” Beatles single, “Now and Then,” that’s an A.I.-stitched patchwork of previously existing Beatles scraps: “The image that formed in my mind as I listened and relistened was that of a spotless, echoey mausoleum, built from shiny gray marble and haunted by garbled digital cries that sound like people I once knew, trying to connect across impossible distances.” (Dan Humiston, McKinleyville, Calif., and Joshua Michael, Bainbridge Island, Wash., among others)

And Tom Friedman cautioned that you cannot properly see the conflict in the Middle East through any simple lens: “If you want to report accurately about Israelis and Palestinians, always bring a kaleidoscope.” (Deborah Kurtz, Kalkan, Turkey)

To nominate favorite bits of recent writing from The Times or other publications to be mentioned in “For the Love of Sentences,” please email me here and include your name and place of residence.


From left, Dominic Sessa, Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph in “The Holdovers.”Seacia Pavao/Focus Features
  • Just when I think can’t bear another word about some public figure, along comes an Olivia Nuzzi profile of that person that makes me greedily read thousands of words more. Her sketch of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in New York magazine last week isn’t to be missed. It combines character study with presidential-election arithmetic in a deft and fluid (and frightening) fashion, and the descriptions of Kennedy’s dog-mobile — you’ll see — are alone worth the price of admission.

  • Two of the ways in which the dearth of local news might be addressed — with enterprising start-ups and with student journalism — converge in this excellent article in The Assembly, a nearly three-year-old publication that covers North Carolina, by Charlotte Kramon, a senior at Duke University. It’s about “a drug-dealing duo and their college student clients,” and it’s a cautionary tale on several fronts.

  • Also here in North Carolina, Eric Johnson had a sane, eloquent take in The News & Observer of Raleigh on how colleges should — and, indeed, sometimes dorespond to charged events like the Israel-Hamas war.

  • This is the time of year when I try to dip into the deep pool of awards-season films, and while I’m barely wet, I’m already a bit disappointed. I found “Killers of the Flower Moon” draggy and repetitive, and Lily Gladstone and Robert DeNiro didn’t seem to be acting in the same movie; their performances weren’t in stylistic sync. (I liked hers better.) “Saltburn,” meantime, isn’t in sync with itself. It’s what you’d get if you decided, for no good reason, to make a shepherd’s pie of “The Talented Mr. Ripley,” “Eyes Wide Shut” and “Gosford Park” — something overstuffed and nonsensical, as Wesley Morris explained brilliantly in his review in The Times. Still, I was glad not to miss Rosamund Pike’s supporting performance as an obscenely wealthy woman in thrall to her own (imagined) modesty and goodness. And I was glad not to miss “The Holdovers,” period. The story of three melancholic souls forming an unlikely union during a subdued holiday season, it’s lovely, and Paul Giamatti, Dominic Sessa and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, as that trio, harmonize beautifully.


Getty Images

I suppose I got my first notice that Leslie, the eldest of my nine nieces and nephews, was all grown up when she graduated from college in 2018.

I got a reminder three years later, when she and her college sweetheart married.

But it somehow didn’t really hit home until last week, on the night before Thanksgiving, when she and her husband, Charlie, had a few family members, including me, over to their New York City apartment for dinner.

There they were, harried from their long workdays — she as a consultant, he as a lawyer. They had a proper dining room table properly set for guests. They had a full meal ready. Leslie poured the wine for me, after all those years of me pouring the wine for her.

I felt completely disoriented. It has always been my understanding that an uncle provides the sustenance, an uncle plots the fun and an uncle foots the bill. Isn’t that the whole point of being an uncle? I’m kidding, partly; there’s also the love and cheerleading and listening and admiring.

But as a glutton and an Italian American, I’ve taken particular pride in feeding my nieces and nephews: cookies when their parents weren’t looking, ice cream when I wasn’t supposed to, cocktails when they were old enough. All of that was on me. I liked it that way.

But last Wednesday night was on Leslie and Charlie. Can I grow to like that?

I’ll try. But I’m still picking up the check when we eat out.

 

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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