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Opinion | Today’s Opinions: U.S. economy; Clarence Thomas; Israel; and more

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In today’s edition:

The economy is good, unless you say it’s bad

Here’s some good news: The U.S. economy is beating forecasts. Here’s some great news: Those forecasts were made even before the pandemic upended everything.

So with GDP growing at a brisk annualized rate of almost 5 percent, why does everybody still think the economy is so bad?

Catherine Rampell’s column takes a tour through this week’s Commerce Department report on the economy, which also contained encouraging numbers on inflation and rising wages. Things, in short, are looking very good.

But look over your shoulder, as many Americans seem to be doing, and the shock of inflation is still there, preserved in the freezer-case window next to the very expensive Eggos. As Catherine writes, “historical research from developed countries suggests that few things make the public angrier than an unexpected burst of inflation.”

Ramesh Ponnuru frames Americans’ discontent a little differently. He writes that wages just haven’t caught up to prices. A great chart in his column shows that wages are one area in which growth is still well below pre-pandemic trends.

“Americans will not consider the economy to be performing well unless their paychecks rise faster than their bills,” Ramesh predicts, arguing also that if the people who make up an economy say the economy is not doing well, it isn’t, period.

Could Republicans do better? The Editorial Board pulled together what it found to be the 2024 presidential candidates’ best and worst ideas for the economy.

Winners included Nikki Haley’s sensible proposals to reform Social Security; losers included Vivek Ramaswamy’s, well, mostly everything. Find the full list in the editorial.

Prudent loan forgiveness?

“The case of Clarence Thomas’s motor home gets curiouser and curiouser.” I’m always saying this!

That’s the headline on Ruth Marcus’s column on the latest news of the Supreme Court justice’s fishy financial entanglements. If you’re not up to date, Thomas had claimed he repaid the $267,000 loan from a friend that allowed him to purchase a luxury motor home. But now, a Senate Finance Committee report’s findings on the transaction don’t square with that claim.

If this were a one-off, fine, maybe. But after all the other money high jinks, Ruth writes, Thomas “has forfeited the benefit of the doubt.”

Chaser: Read Alexandra Petri’s imaginary dispatch from the luxury yacht Thomas wished was actually a motor home parked in a Walmart parking lot.

From George Will’s column explaining his concern about the military readiness of the Navy and, therefore, its deterrence capabilities. He considers the fleet “shockingly short of capacities commensurate with the world’s multiplying threats.”

And things aren’t really getting fixed, either. To comply with certain international commitments, the United States would need to be building on average at least 2.3 attack subs every year; it is building 1.2.

Take one more step back: “Shipbuilding facilities sufficient to fulfill the aspirations do not exist and cannot be quickly created,” George writes. That’s not to mention the military’s recruiting shortfalls.

The country is becoming complacent, George worries, and history is not usually kind to leaders who flub safeguards against war.

Chaser: Last month, former defense secretary Mark Esper proposed some promising solutions for the military’s dip in recruiting.

More politics

As different as this crisis in the Middle East feels from earlier emergencies in the area — on scale, on global attention — the challenge the United States faces is the same as ever, David Ignatius writes: “How can it protect Israel, its closest ally in the region, while also bolstering stability and maintaining its partnerships with Arab neighbors?”

David recognizes it as a tricky tightrope and lauds President Biden as a particularly talented funambulist so far. His column lays out where the United States ought to go from here, all the while keeping up its leadership mantle.

Jason Willick, however, is not so convinced that the administration is making the right moves. His column is a warning: Constrain Israel too much, and the region might end up more dangerous than ever.

Chaser: Chuck Lane spoke this week with the daughter of an Israeli held hostage by Hamas. Her plea to the world is moving.

Smartest, fastest

It’s a goodbye. It’s a haiku. It’s… The Bye-Ku.

Forgive inflation

But don’t ever forget it

(Also, don’t forgive)

Plus! A Friday bye-ku (Fri-ku!) from reader Karen P.:

Poor little peace dove

Feathers charred, plucked out and lost

No calm for this world

***

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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