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Opinion | We all agree on who shouldn't be allowed to make political donations. Then it gets tricky – NiagaraFallsReview.ca

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Voters are massively opposed to big business or big unions ever again donating to — or distorting — the political process.

And they are grappling with how to get the old money politics under control.

We know this thanks to a new poll for the Toronto Star carried out by Campaign Research, which probed public attitudes to Premier Doug Ford latest campaign finance reforms. Amid growing public cynicism about how politicians from all parties raise private funds — and how governments in power spend public funds — it’s a point worth driving home:

People want our politics kept free of corrosive corporate influences that corrupt decision-making. Our politicians must not only be clean, but seen to be clean.

A lopsided 69 per cent of Ontarians support a ban on business and union contributions, with only 10 per cent opposed, according to the poll. That’s a strong majority in favour of policing the political process, which is why we posed the question.

The bigger question is what should replace it. And here the answers are surprising, sometimes confusing, and something of a challenge for people who care about democratic reform.

The numbers don’t lie. Just as we must follow the money, we must also follow the polling data to make sense of public opinion.

This month’s survey comes against the backdrop of continued controversy over how the Progressive Conservative government deals with sensitive development issues, and whether the pristine Greenbelt is up for grabs. The increased resort to so-called “Ministerial Zoning Orders” (MZOs) by Ford’s Tories — which short circuit routine environmental safeguards and zoning rules — risks playing into the hands of developers with deep pockets.

This province was the Wild West of money politics until recently, with top cabinet ministers in former premier Kathleen Wynne’s government raising hundreds of thousands of dollars each to fill individual quotas set by the Liberal party. Amid much controversy (and a lot of column inches in the Toronto Star), Wynne did what no other party in power had ever done in Ontario — she banned the financial power of private interests, notably the big brewers, the Beer Store and their labour unions (with outsized influence on both Liberals and New Democrats).

Ontario cleaned up its act. But how do we keep it clean going forward?

Under pressure, Wynne agreed to replace prohibited private funding with public funding — allocated per vote received — so that the major political parties wouldn’t be bankrupted by the switch. It worked, until it almost came unravelled.

Campaigning as a populist outsider in 2018, Ford vowed to eliminate the so-called “per-vote subsidy” if he ever won power. His government quickly announced plans to phase out the roughly $2.50 per vote allocation, and Ford told me last October he was determined not to waver.

But to his credit, in mid-pandemic, the premier had second thoughts on campaign finance reform — as he has on other matters that matter. Last month he quietly extended the public financing of political parties for at least another three years, throwing a lifeline to the democratic process at a time when voters are tapped out by COVID-19.

It turns out Ontarians are almost evenly split.

About the premier’s decision to extend per vote subsidies: 35 per cent for, versus 36 per cent against.

(Campaign Research polled 1,344 people across Ontario from March 8-11 using Maru/Blue’s online panel; it is an opt-in poll, but for comparison purposes, a random sample of this size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.)

For Ford, who got into politics as an anti-government populist — but now runs the government as a popularity-conscious premier still riding high in the polls — the public split, and the high level of indecision, gave him manoeuvring room to reconsider. After all, the facts have changed since he made what he thought would be a popular promise — people are hurting, which makes it harder for parties to make their fundraising pitches (until someone’s stumble gives them an opening).

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Which means the premier won’t pay a price, either way, for doing the right thing — except, perhaps, among his most right-wing supporters. Among Tories, fully 42 per cent opposed the premier’s decision to extend public subsidies, with 34 per cent opposed.

Liberals were evenly split, while New Democrats broadly backed Ford’s extension — 47 per cent in favour versus 27 per cent opposed (not as wide a margin as the NDP might imagine).

Interestingly, Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner, who passionately favours per vote subsidies, may be out of step with his own supporters: 37 per cent oppose the extension of public funding, and 27 per cent support it, which suggests Greens sometimes see blue.

Schreiner is right to back public funding, as I do. But the polling numbers suggest a democratic disconnect.

Under cover of extending the per vote subsidy, the premier also doubled the limits on individual donations from $1,650 a year to $3,300 annually. The polling shows voters split down the middle on this, with 38 per cent supporting the move and 36 per cent opposed.

It turns out Ford has threaded the needle on campaign funding. It’s all in the polling data.

If democracy activists want to lower those contribution limits — which are in the middle of the pack, among provinces, but too high by my measure — the best way to persuade politicians like Ford to do the right thing is to win public support for tougher rules.

It’s hard to persuade public opinion. But that’s democracy.

In practice, private money distorts decision making. In principle, public money doesn’t.

But if you want to win the day on democratic reforms, you first have to win the campaign to persuade people. That’s politics.

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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