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Outlook for interest rates, inflation are key trends as banks set to report earnings – CP24 Toronto's Breaking News

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Ian Bickis, The Canadian Press


Published Monday, February 21, 2022 1:31PM EST


Last Updated Monday, February 21, 2022 4:02PM EST

TORONTO – Investors watching bank earnings that start this week will be keeping a keen eye on any hints at how the institutions expect to fare with the two big trends this year: rate hikes and inflation.

The central banks of Canada and the U.S. are expected to start raising rates in March, so analysts will be watching for any outlook changes from Canadian banks on how they expect the higher rates to play out, Scotiabank analyst Meny Grauman said in a note.

“The outlook for rates and the impact that this will have on earnings should remain investors’ key focus heading into Q1 reporting.”

Expenses will be another key trend to watch as wages and other costs rise in the competitive growth environment and as banks invest heavily in technology, Grauman said.

RBC analyst Darko Mihelic said in a note that bank CEOs have so far been saying inflation risk is manageable, but he’ll be looking for any change in tone given recent inflation data and the rising costs U.S. banks reported in January.

He forecasts that first quarter expenses will be up 1.1 per cent from the previous quarter, and up 3.9 per cent from a year earlier.

Mihelic said that for first quarter results, he expects core earnings per share to climb three per cent quarter-over-quarter and nine per cent year-over-year.

For 2022 as a whole, he expects core earnings-per-share growth of six per cent, driven by rising interest rates, improved loan growth and solid credit quality.

The earnings results for the quarter ended Jan. 31 come as the Canadian bank index has well outpaced the TSX and S&P 500 as investors have shifted from growth stocks such as technology to more value-oriented options like banks, which are now trading at the higher end of their historical trading range.

Grauman, however, said bank stocks still have room for growth amid rising interest rates, a strong Canadian mortgage market and a shift to value stocks.

“The key risks to our outlook include COVID, as well as the prospect that rate increases trigger a recession, but we view those risks as relatively modest and believe that the positives continue to outweigh the negatives at this stage in the cycle.”

Dividend increases were the big focus of the last quarterly results, but Grauman said he isn’t expecting further increases this quarter.

One of the other remaining unknowns is the potential special tax on banks that the federal government has said is coming, possibly to be announced in conjunction with the next budget.

But investors so far haven’t shown much concern, Barclays analyst John Aiken said in a note last month.

“The market has shrugged off the impact, likely because it can be recouped through fees.”

The coming higher rates should benefit banks globally, but especially in Canada, he said.

“For the Canadian contingent, which has been facing net interest margin compression, the relief will be palpable.”

Royal Bank kicks off earnings on Thursday, followed by CIBC and National Bank on Friday, BMO and Scotiabank on March 1, and TD Bank on March 3.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 21, 2022.

Companies in this story: (TSX:RY, TSX:BNS, TSX:BMO, TSX:NA, TSX:TD, TSX:CM)

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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