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Pakistan's Poisonous Politics | Time – TIME

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Pakistan’s politics were plenty toxic even before the failed assassination against ousted former Prime Minister Imran Khan. When Khan was removed from power following a parliamentary vote of no confidence in April, he claimed Pakistan’s military and its friends in Washington wanted to silence him. He then kicked off a series of protest marches that have drawn massive crowds.

In October, Khan insinuated that the army had killed a journalist, an uncharacteristically blunt frontal assault on Pakistan’s army, and the country’s head of military intelligence felt compelled to call an unprecedented public press conference to deny the charge. Officials in the current government, led by Shehbaz Sharif, accused Khan of terrorism, illegally receiving money from foreigners, and other forms of financial fraud. Then, during a protest rally earlier this month, Khan was shot in the leg, some of his supporters were wounded, and one was killed.

It’s all part of a three-way fight between Pakistan’s current government, its powerful and politically meddlesome military, and Khan, a former cricket star and playboy who governed as a supporter of Muslim fundamentalism. Khan blamed the attempt to kill him on Prime Minister Sharif, the Interior Minister, and a senior military officer. If some Pakistanis who doubted past charges of conspiracy find them more plausible now that shots have been fired, critics within the government have accused Khan of staging the shooting to discredit Sharif and win sympathy.

The suspected gunman provided conflicting accounts of his own motives before finally settling on “blasphemy” as Khan’s unpardonable offense. Khan himself claims there was more than one shooter. The government and military are dragging their feet on launching a formal investigation. Even with one, the mysteries surrounding this event are unlikely ever to be solved, and each side will believe the version of events it chooses to credit.

The political temperature continues to rise. Since Oct. 28, the still popular Khan has led what he’s billed as another “Long March” across the country toward Islamabad, the capital, to protest his ouster as Prime Minister and to demand early elections, which he says would restore him to power with a large popular mandate to clean up corruption and uproot a deep-state-style conspiracy to keep power in a very few hands. He is popular enough that his rivals and enemies have no intention of giving him that opportunity. The government is not required to hold elections until October 2023.

Khan’s challenges and this latest political intrigue will only make it harder for Sharif’s government to manage an economy in deep trouble. Decades of waste and corruption have taken a cumulative toll, and Khan’s populist economic policies as Prime Minister only added to the IOUs of a country that was already billions in debt, particularly to China. Recent floods that killed almost 1,500 people and impacted millions of lives have inflicted tens of billions of dollars in damage. Inflation has reached historic heights. Current Prime Minister Sharif has worked hard to win a $7 billion relief package from the International Monetary Fund, which would require Pakistan to, among other things, cut state subsidies to help Pakistanis pay their soaring energy bills. An austerity budget and more spending cuts are badly needed to bring Pakistan’s books a bit closer to balance, but Khan, seeing an unmissable opportunity to attack the government, has denounced the cuts. He claims, implausibly, that if he becomes Prime Minister again, the cuts won’t be needed.

A confrontation is coming. Once his leg has sufficiently healed, Khan will rejoin thousands of his supporters and continue their march toward Islamabad. Men holding guns will be waiting, and no one is likely to back down.

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Bloc Québécois ready to extract gains for Quebec in exchange for supporting Liberals

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MONTEBELLO, Que. – The Bloc Québécois is ready to wheel and deal with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government in exchange for support during confidence votes now that the Liberal government’s confidence and supply agreement with the NDP has ended.

That support won’t come cheap, the Quebec-based Bloc said, and the sovereigntist party led by Yves-François Blanchet has already drawn up a list of demands.

In an interview ahead of the opening of Monday’s party caucus retreat in the Outaouais region, Bloc House Leader Alain Therrien said his party is happy to regain its balance of power.

“Our objectives remain the same, but the means to get there will be much easier,” Therrien said. “We will negotiate and seek gains for Quebec … our balance of power has improved, that’s for sure.”

He called the situation a “window of opportunity” now that the Liberals are truly a minority government after New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh tore up the confidence and supply deal between the two parties last week, leaving the Bloc with an opening.

While Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have promised multiple confidence votes in the hope of triggering a general election, the Bloc’s strategy is not to rush to the polls and instead use their new-found standing to make what they consider to be gains for Quebec.

A Bloc strategist who was granted anonymity by The Canadian Press because he was not authorized to speak publicly stated bluntly that the NDP had officially handed the balance of power back to the Bloc. The Bloc is taking for granted that when a federal election is held in about a year or less, it will be a majority Conservative government led by Poilievre, whose party has surged in the polls for over a year and has been ahead in the rest of Canada for over a year.

Quebec won’t factor so much in that win, the source added, where the Bloc will be hoping to grab seats from the Liberals and where the Conservatives hope to gain from the Bloc.

“It’s going to happen with or without Quebec,” the source said. “They (the Conservatives) are 20 points ahead everywhere in Canada, with the exception of Quebec, and that won’t change … their (Conservative) vote is firm.”

It is not surprising that the Bloc sees excellent news in the tearing up of the agreement that allowed the Liberals to govern without listening to their demands, said University of Ottawa political scientist Geneviève Tellier.

“The Bloc only has influence if the government, no matter which one, is a minority,” she explained. “In the case of a majority government, the Bloc’s relevance becomes more difficult to justify because, like the other parties, it can oppose, it can hold the government to account, but it cannot influence the government’s policies.”

On the Bloc’s priority list is gaining royal recommendation for Bill C-319, which aims to bring pensions for seniors aged 65 to 74 to the same level as that paid to those aged 75 and over.

A bill with budgetary implications that comes from a member of Parliament, as is the case here, must necessarily obtain royal recommendation before third reading, failing which the rules provide that the Speaker of the House will end the proceedings and rule it inadmissible.

The Bloc also wants Quebec to obtain more powers in immigration matters, particularly in the area of ​​temporary foreign workers, and recoup money it says is owed to the province.

The demands concerning seniors’ pensions and immigration powers are “easy, feasible and clear,” Therrien said.

“It’s clear that it will be on the table. I can tell you: I’m the one who will negotiate,” he added.

The Bloc also wants to see cuts to money for oil companies, more health-care funds for provinces as demanded by premiers and stemming or eliminating Ottawa’s encroachment of provincial jurisdictions.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 8, 2024.

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N.B. Liberals officially launch election bid before official start of fall campaign

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s Liberals got a jump on the province’s coming fall election today with the official launch of their party’s campaign.

The kickoff, which took place in the Fredericton riding where Liberal Leader Susan Holt plans to run this time, came before the official start of the general election set for Oct. 21.

The Liberal platform contains promises to open at least 30 community care clinics over the next four years at a cost of $115.2 million, and roll out a $27.4 million-a-year program to offer free or low-cost food at all schools starting next September.

The governing Progressive Conservatives, led by BlaineHiggs, have so far pledged to lower the Harmonized Sales Tax from 15 per cent to 13 per cent if re-elected.

Political observers say the issues most affecting people in New Brunswick are affordability, health care, housing and education.

Recent polls suggest Higgs, whose leadership style has drawn critiques from within his caucus and whose policies on pronoun use in schools have stirred considerable controversy within the province, may face an uphill battle with voters this fall.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 8, 2024.

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Trudeau to face fretful caucus ahead of return to the House

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will face a fretful and strained caucus in British Columbia Monday, with MPs looking for him to finally reveal his plan to address the political purgatory the party has endured for months.

Several Liberal MPs privately and publicly demanded they meet as a team after the devastating byelection loss of a longtime political stronghold in Toronto last June, but the prime minister refused to convene his caucus before the fall.

Their political fortunes did not improve over the summer, and this week the Liberals took two more significant blows: the abrupt departure of the NDP from the political pact that prevented an early election, and the resignation of the Liberals’ national campaign director.

Now, with two more byelections looming on Sept. 16 and a general election sometime in the next year, several caucus members who are still not comfortable speaking publicly told The Canadian Press they’re anxiously awaiting a game plan from the prime minister and his advisers that will help them save their seats.

The Liberals have floundered in the polls for more than a year now as Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have capitalized on countrywide concerns about inflation, the cost of living and lack of available housing.

Though Trudeau hasn’t yet addressed all of his MPs en masse, he has spoken with them in groups throughout June and July and stopped in on several regional caucus meetings ahead of the Nanaimo retreat.

“We’re focused on delivering for Canadians,” Trudeau said at a Quebec Liberal caucus meeting Thursday.

He listed several programs in the works, including a national school food program and $10-a-day childcare, as well as national coverage for insulin and contraceptives, which the Liberals developed in partnership with the NDP.

“These are things that matter for Canadians,” he said, before he accused the NDP of focusing on politics while the Liberals are “focused on Canadians.”

Wayne Long, a Liberal MP representing a New Brunswick riding, says the problem is that Canadians appear to have tuned the prime minister out.

Long was the only Liberal member to publicly call for Trudeau’s resignation in the aftermath of the Toronto-St. Paul’s byelection loss, though several other MPs expressed the same sentiment privately at the time.

Long shared his views with the prime minister again at the Atlantic caucus retreat ahead of Monday’s meeting.

“I’m really worried the old ‘stay calm and carry on,’ which effectively is where we are, is not going to put us on a road to victory in the next election,” said Long, who does not plan to run again.

“If we’re going to mount a campaign that can beat Pierre Poilievre, in my opinion that campaign cannot be led by Justin Trudeau.”

Long fears a Trudeau campaign could lead to a Poilievre government that dismantles the prime minister’s nine-year legacy, piece by piece.

Long is one of several Liberal MPs who confirmed to The Canadian Press they do not plan to go the meeting in Nanaimo. But Mark Carney, the Bank of Canada governor whose name is routinely dropped around Ottawa as a possible successor to Trudeau as Liberal leader, will be in attendance.

He’s expected to address MPs about the economy and a plan for growth.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s decision to back out of the supply and confidence deal certainly complicates any calls for the prime minister to step aside and allow a new leader to face off against Pierre Poilievre in the next election, since that election could now come at any time.

“It makes a much more precarious situation, because Singh probably holds the keys to when that election could be,” said Andrew Perez, a longtime Liberal with Perez Strategies, who also called for Trudeau’s resignation earlier this summer.

“Maybe it presents an argument for the pro-Trudeau side to say that we need to stick with Trudeau, because there’s no time.”

But while some caucus members describe feeling frustrated by the political tribulation, Long insists that those who are running again aren’t yet feeling defeated.

Speaking about those in the Atlantic caucus, he said “to a person, they’re ready to fight. They’re they’re ready to go.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 8, 2024.

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