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Pandemic has devastated India's economy and left its children vulnerable to exploitation as cheap labour – CBC.ca

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Ajay Tomar regularly scans the platforms of the New Delhi Railway Station, the busiest in India, running through a checklist in his head. 

The social worker is trained to spot signs of children being trafficked into forced labour. One telltale sign is seeing one or two kids are surrounded by a group of adults, the children isolated. He always glances at their hands to check if they are worn, a clue the child has been working illegally. 

Child labour is illegal in India for anyone under 14 except in special circumstances, such as working for a family business. But it’s a problem that has been exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic, with indications pointing to a sharp increase in the number of children being exploited as cheap labourers. 

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India’s last census, in 2011, showed the country had nearly 8.2 million child labourers between the ages of five and 14, mainly in the country’s poor rural states, such as Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Children’s rights groups say that number improved significantly this past decade but fear the pandemic will reverse much of that progress.

A 10-year-old boy works inside a lime paste factory in a Mumbai slum in November 2010. Child advocates say that the child labour situation has improved in the past decade but worry that progress will be set back as the pandemic economy forces children back to work. (Danish Siddiqui/Reuters)

India’s swift and severe lockdown to stop the spread of COVID-19, imposed in March with mere hours’ notice, made a desperate situation worse and created “fertile ground” for traffickers, according to Sudarshan Suchi, CEO of Save the Children India. 

It abruptly shut all of the country’s schools and forced migrant labourers out of work, Suchi said, and once the measures started to ease, industry turned to the cheapest labour available to make up the shortfall: children.   

Children who have missed their online classes due to a lack of internet facilities sit on the ground maintain a safe distance as they listen to pre-recorded lessons over loudspeakers in Dandwal village in the western state of Maharashtra. (Prashant Waydande/Reuters)

Schools in many parts of the country remain shut

The country has the second-highest number of COVID-19 cases after the U.S., at 9.6 million, and third-highest number of deaths, at almost 140,000.

Reopening orders vary from state to state, but schools across the country are still closed or operating at a much-reduced capacity, and children in some of India’s poorer communities are not in class because they don’t have access to online learning.  

Children watch online lectures inside a digital mobile education library in Mumbai set up so that children without access to cellphones can follow classes virtually during the pandemic. Schools in many part of India are closed as COVID-19 cases show no sign of slowing down. (Francis Mascarenhas/Reuters)

On the heels of its deadliest month from COVID-19 cases, Delhi’s Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia said schools would remain shut until a vaccine is available. 

In other states, such as Gujarat, classes were set to resume in late November before authorities, spooked by a rise in infections, decided to hold off. 

As a result, Suchi said, his crews have seen a “marked increase” in child labour in urban and rural areas, where children are often pushed into working at garment factories, car repair shops or garbage dumps, where they pick out plastics to earn a few cents.  

“The vulnerability is at its highest right now,” he said. 

Suchi also worries the damage has already been done, since once children from poorer communities leave class for work, it’s much harder for them to return.

WATCH | In pandemic, children have become source of cheap labour in some parts of India:

In India, with a COVID-19 case count second only to the U.S., it’s children who’ve become the cheapest and easiest sources of income for families ravaged by economic fallout. 2:32

Families complicit in child labour

Tomar, who works for the Delhi-based non-governmental organization Prayas, has been seeing more of that vulnerability, too, as families turn to children to help scrape together enough money to survive.

“We find kids here who have come to work … with their fathers and mothers,” Tomar said.

While he was speaking to CBC News, Tomar’s fellow social workers on the railway rescue team were interviewing a preteen boy who tried to run away from the two adults who had forced him into manual labour. One of them was his cousin; the other his brother.

Kids on the platform at the New Delhi Railway Station. Workers from the Prayas Juvenile Aid Centre Society patrol the station on the lookout for children who are being forced to work illegally by adults. (Stephanie Jenzer/CBC)

The boy eventually told the social workers that his relatives forced him to work 14 days in a row at a bicycle-chain repair factory near the New Delhi train station until he got so tired he tried to travel back to his home state of Bihar, hundreds of kilometres away, to see his mother. His captors tailed him to the station, where Tomar’s team noticed the group and intervened. 

Tomar said the fact the boy’s brother was involved in forcing him to work is all too common.

“We find out every day that families are almost all OK [with it],” said Tomar. “We can’t say anything to them. They are vulnerable, marginalized people.” 

Ajay Tomar, a social worker with Prayas, believes during the pandemic, some children he would have normally been able to rescue may be slipping through the cracks. (Stephanie Jenzer/CBC)

Economy contracted 24% during pandemic

Chaman Shagufta, who works as a counsellor with the same organization at a children’s shelter in one of Delhi’s poorest neighbourhoods, knows that all too well. 

She often has to tease the stories out of the children and track inconsistencies before handing their files over to India’s child welfare authorities, who determine if a child should be allowed to return to their family or be sent to a shelter.

Shagufta’s rapid-fire questions, punctuated by terms of endearment, are effective in getting two young boys picked up at the New Delhi Railway Station on their way to Maharashtra from the poverty-plagued state of Bihar to tell part of their story.

“Before the lockdown, we were in school,” said one boy.

Boys at one of the 38 children’s homes and shelters run by Prayas practise drawing and the alphabet. (Stephanie Jenzer/CBC)

He insisted he was 15, but Shagufta was unconvinced, suspecting the boy was closer to 12. 

“It’s very much a probability that they have come for work since schools are locked down and nobody is studying,” she said. 

Many parents know children are being sent off to work, she said, and reason that they may as well “earn something” during the shutdown period. 

It’s a sign of the dire straits families are in in an economy that has contracted 24 per cent between April and June of this year, according to government GDP figures. 

Children near a street corner in central Delhi where they beg for money from drivers stuck in traffic. (Stephanie Jenzer/CBC)

‘Nowhere children’

Children are most at risk under those circumstances, said Amod Kanth, the former Delhi police officer who founded the NGO Prayas. 

“I prefer to call them ‘nowhere children,’ he said. “They are not on the radar. They are not visible. They are not accounted for because they happen to be drifting, traveling, migrating.

“They suffer more compared to others in the pandemic.”

Amod Kanth, a former New Delhi police officer who founded Prayas, says children ‘are not on the radar’ during the pandemic and suffer more as a result. (Stephanie Jenzer/CBC)

In another children’s home operated by Prayas, Poonam waits patiently for a quick visit in the hallway outside the large room where her three eldest children are getting an art lesson from social workers. 

The 30-year old mother of four boys lives in one of Delhi’s poorest slums and told CBC News the eight months since the start of India’s lockdown order were the hardest she’s had to endure. 

“It was tough,” she said. “My children were starving.”

Her husband, an addict, had already left her and she was also caring for her own mother, who has health problems.    

Poonam is a 30-year-old mother of four who works selling vegetables. During the pandemic, she has only been able to earn less than $3 a day. She says she had no choice but to let her children beg for money in order to survive. (Stephanie Jenzer/CBC)

Desperation pushed her to send three of her sons, ages 5, 7 and 11, to beg on the streets outside a local temple and at busy intersections while she ran her vegetable stand, making about 150 rupees (less than $3 Cdn) a day, she said. 

Only, fewer people were out buying vegetables and the struggle to find enough money for the family to eat was crushing.

The boys were spotted begging a month ago and taken in by social workers, who alerted the authorities and started the child welfare committee process to determine whether the three can be sent home. 

They are living temporarily at the Prayas shelter, and Poonam desperately wants to keep it that way. 

“It’s too hard. They will die if they come back to me,” Poonam said, her voice breaking with emotion.

At a home for vulnerable children in northeast Delhi, boys learn handicraft skills. (Stephanie Jenzer/CBC)

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Economy

IMF Sees OPEC+ Oil Output Lift From July in Saudi Economic Boost – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — The International Monetary Fund expects OPEC and its partners to start increasing oil output gradually from July, a transition that’s set to catapult Saudi Arabia back into the ranks of the world’s fastest-growing economies next year. 

“We are assuming the full reversal of cuts is happening at the beginning of 2025,” Amine Mati, the lender’s mission chief to the kingdom, said in an interview in Washington, where the IMF and the World Bank are holding their spring meetings.

The view explains why the IMF is turning more upbeat on Saudi Arabia, whose economy contracted last year as it led the OPEC+ alliance alongside Russia in production cuts that squeezed supplies and pushed up crude prices. In 2022, record crude output propelled Saudi Arabia to the fastest expansion in the Group of 20.

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Under the latest outlook unveiled this week, the IMF improved next year’s growth estimate for the world’s biggest crude exporter from 5.5% to 6% — second only to India among major economies in an upswing that would be among the kingdom’s fastest spurts over the past decade. 

The fund projects Saudi oil output will reach 10 million barrels per day in early 2025, from what’s now a near three-year low of 9 million barrels. Saudi Arabia says its production capacity is around 12 million barrels a day and it’s rarely pumped as low as today’s levels in the past decade.

Mati said the IMF slightly lowered its forecast for Saudi economic growth this year to 2.6% from 2.7% based on actual figures for 2023 and the extension of production curbs to June. Bloomberg Economics predicts an expansion of 1.1% in 2024 and assumes the output cuts will stay until the end of this year.

Worsening hostilities in the Middle East provide the backdrop to a possible policy shift after oil prices topped $90 a barrel for the first time in months. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies will gather on June 1 and some analysts expect the group may start to unwind the curbs.

After sacrificing sales volumes to support the oil market, Saudi Arabia may instead opt to pump more as it faces years of fiscal deficits and with crude prices still below what it needs to balance the budget.

Saudi Arabia is spending hundreds of billions of dollars to diversify an economy that still relies on oil and its close derivatives — petrochemicals and plastics — for more than 90% of its exports.

Restrictive US monetary policy won’t necessarily be a drag on Saudi Arabia, which usually moves in lockstep with the Federal Reserve to protect its currency peg to the dollar. 

Mati sees a “negligible” impact from potentially slower interest-rate cuts by the Fed, given the structure of the Saudi banks’ balance sheets and the plentiful liquidity in the kingdom thanks to elevated oil prices.

The IMF also expects the “non-oil sector growth momentum to remain strong” for at least the next couple of years, Mati said, driven by the kingdom’s plans to develop industries from manufacturing to logistics.

The kingdom “has undertaken many transformative reforms and is doing a lot of the right actions in terms of the regulatory environment,” Mati said. “But I think it takes time for some of those reforms to materialize.”

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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IMF Boss Says ‘All Eyes’ on US Amid Risks to Global Economy – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — The head of the International Monetary Fund warned the US that the global economy is closely watching interest rates and industrial policies given the potential spillovers from the world’s biggest economy and reserve currency. 

“All eyes are on the US,” Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview on Bloomberg’s Surveillance on Thursday. 

The two biggest issues, she said, are “what is going to happen with inflation and interest rates” and “how is the US going to navigate this world of more intrusive government policies.”

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The sustained strength of the US dollar is “concerning” for other currencies, particularly the lack of clarity on how long that may last. 

“That’s what I hear from countries,” said the leader of the fund, which has about 190 members. “How long will the Fed be stuck with higher interest rates?”

Georgieva was speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers have been debating the impacts of Washington and Beijing’s policies and their geopolitical rivalry. 

Read More: A Resilient Global Economy Masks Growing Debt and Inequality

Georgieva said the IMF is optimistic that the conditions will be right for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year. 

“The Fed is not yet prepared, and rightly so, to cut,” she said. “How fast? I don’t think we should gear up for a rapid decline in interest rates.”

The IMF chief also repeated her concerns about China devoting too much capital and labor toward export-oriented manufacturing, causing other countries, including the US, to retaliate with protectionist policies.

China Overcapacity

“If China builds overcapacity and pushes exports that create reciprocity of action, then we are in a world of more fragmentation not less, and that ultimately is not good for China,” Georgieva said.

“What I want to see China doing is get serious about reforms, get serious about demand and consumption,” she added.

A number of countries have recently criticized China for what they see as excessive state subsidies for manufacturers, particularly in clean energy sectors, that might flood global markets with cheap goods and threaten competing firms.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hammered at the theme during a recent trip to China, repeatedly calling on Beijing to shift its economic policy toward stimulating domestic demand.

Chinese officials have acknowledged the risk of overcapacity in some areas, but have largely portrayed the criticism as overblown and hypocritical, coming from countries that are also ramping up clean energy subsidies.

(Updates with additional Georgieva comments from eighth paragraph.)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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IMF Boss Says 'All Eyes' on US Amid Risks to Global Economy – Financial Post

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The head of the International Monetary Fund warned the US that the global economy is closely watching interest rates and industrial policies given the potential spillovers from the world’s biggest economy and reserve currency.

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(Bloomberg) — The head of the International Monetary Fund warned the US that the global economy is closely watching interest rates and industrial policies given the potential spillovers from the world’s biggest economy and reserve currency. 

“All eyes are on the US,” Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview on Bloomberg’s Surveillance on Thursday. 

Article content

The two biggest issues, she said, are “what is going to happen with inflation and interest rates” and “how is the US going to navigate this world of more intrusive government policies.”

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The sustained strength of the US dollar is “concerning” for other currencies, particularly the lack of clarity on how long that may last. 

“That’s what I hear from countries,” said the leader of the fund, which has about 190 members. “How long will the Fed be stuck with higher interest rates?”

Georgieva was speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers have been debating the impacts of Washington and Beijing’s policies and their geopolitical rivalry. 

Read More: A Resilient Global Economy Masks Growing Debt and Inequality

Georgieva said the IMF is optimistic that the conditions will be right for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year. 

“The Fed is not yet prepared, and rightly so, to cut,” she said. “How fast? I don’t think we should gear up for a rapid decline in interest rates.”

The IMF chief also repeated her concerns about China devoting too much capital and labor toward export-oriented manufacturing, causing other countries, including the US, to retaliate with protectionist policies.

China Overcapacity

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“If China builds overcapacity and pushes exports that create reciprocity of action, then we are in a world of more fragmentation not less, and that ultimately is not good for China,” Georgieva said.

“What I want to see China doing is get serious about reforms, get serious about demand and consumption,” she added.

A number of countries have recently criticized China for what they see as excessive state subsidies for manufacturers, particularly in clean energy sectors, that might flood global markets with cheap goods and threaten competing firms.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hammered at the theme during a recent trip to China, repeatedly calling on Beijing to shift its economic policy toward stimulating domestic demand.

Chinese officials have acknowledged the risk of overcapacity in some areas, but have largely portrayed the criticism as overblown and hypocritical, coming from countries that are also ramping up clean energy subsidies.

(Updates with additional Georgieva comments from eighth paragraph.)

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