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Pennsylvania's political geography: Where each party's voters come from – The Washington Post

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Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)

Fifth in a series on swing states

After losing the presidency in 2016, Democrats had a few excuses for their weak performance in the upper Midwest. Hillary Clinton had barely campaigned in the Great Lakes region, outside of Ohio; she had held back campaign resources, as her data suggested such states as Michigan and Wisconsin would remain part of a “blue wall.”

None of those rationales made sense for Pennsylvania, a state Clinton tended to for months and where she buried Donald Trump in TV advertising. Democrats bet on a few trends that simply did not materialize, like a suburban vote surge overwhelming losses in rural areas, and suburban women jumping — maybe at the last minute — for the chance to elect a female president. Clinton ended up losing the votes of White women by nine points, according to exit polls, and losing the suburbs by four points. Meanwhile, voters without college degrees, who had backed Barack Obama’s 2012 bid by 15 points, went for Trump by seven points.

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Penn.’s shift from 2012 to 2016

Trump gained in most of the state, but especially in rural regions.

Dem. won by

500k votes

GOP won

by 250k

Philadelphia

Statewide 2016 margin

In 2018, Democrats swept statewide races and picked up House seats, with Republican nominees for governor and U.S. Senate holding on to rural areas while the vote in suburban Philadelphia, northeast Pennsylvania and Erie County swung back toward Joe Biden’s party.

Pennsylvania’s shift from 2012 to 2016

Clinton outperformed Obama in Southeast but Trump gained almost everywhere else, especially rural regions

Dem. won by

500k votes

GOP won

by 250k

Philadelphia

Statewide 2016 margin

In 2018, Democrats swept statewide races and picked up House seats, with Republican nominees for governor and U.S. Senate holding on to rural areas while the vote in suburban Philadelphia, northeast Pennsylvania and Erie County swung back toward Joe Biden’s party.

Pennsylvania’s shift from 2012 to 2016

Clinton outperformed Obama in Southeast and Allegheny, but Trump gained everywhere else, especially rural regions

Dem. won by

500k votes

GOP won

by 250k

Philadelphia

Statewide 2016 margin

In 2018, Democrats swept statewide races and picked up House seats, with Republican nominees for governor and U.S. Senate holding on to rural areas while the vote in suburban Philadelphia, northeast Pennsylvania and Erie County swung back toward Joe Biden’s party.

On the county-by-county map beloved by the president, the vote shift is hard to detect. Trump won three counties (Erie, Luzerne, Northampton) that were carried by the 2012 Obama-Biden ticket; Clinton won one county, Chester, that the party had lost four years earlier. That obscures the scale of Republican gains, which turned places that Obama had lost by a few points into places where Clinton lost by landslides.

In 2018, Democrats romped back and swept Pennsylvania’s statewide elections, but some of these voters didn’t come back. Even Sen. Robert P. Casey Jr. (D), the scion of Scranton’s most successful political family, watched his vote share decline in Northeast Pennsylvania. Statewide, his margin from 2012 to 2018 grew from 10 points to 13 points. But instead of narrowly winning Philadelphia’s outer suburbs, he won them in a rout; instead of romping in the Northeast, he fought to a draw.

We’ve split Pennsylvania into seven states — or, if you must get technical, seven commonwealths. Democrats turn out big margins in three of them: the urban centers of Allegheny and Philadelphia counties, and the populous suburbs of the Southeast. Three other regions were red before 2016 and got redder: the West, conservative Central Pennsylvania and the Dutch Country around Harrisburg and Lancaster. The key swing region is the Northeast, from Allentown to Scranton to the deeply conservative townships of Wayne and Pike counties.

This is the fifth in a series breaking down the key swing states of 2020, showing how electoral trends played out over the past few years and where the shift in votes really mattered.

Philadelphia

Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …

  • Has a higher share of people living in cities than average.
  • Has more non-White residents than average.
  • Has fewer college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
Image: Illustrated map of Pennsylvania.

A myth has developed about Philadelphia’s role in the 2016 election — the myth of lower turnout. Pennsylvania’s biggest city gets lumped in with Milwaukee or Detroit, places where a drop in Black voter enthusiasm was decisive in Trump’s Midwest victory. But the Clinton campaign actually held its own in Philadelphia, running fewer than 5,000 votes behind Obama’s 2012 campaign. No other Democrats, in modern history, had gotten such a massive margin out of the city, even as Trump ran a few thousand votes ahead of 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Heading into this election, Democrats are less worried about turning out their vote than they are about the Republican effort to supplement its usual poll watchers with election monitors from outside the city. (The GOP is in court to make that happen, while Democrats fret about rural voters arriving to slow down in-person voting with challenges.) There are pockets of Republican support in the northeastern part of Philadelphia County, and the campaign may play more for working-class White voters here, after the Democratic Party’s left triumphed in local elections and changed the city’s approach to policing.

2016 vote total

Donald Trump

108,572

Hillary Clinton

584,016

2016 vote totals
  • Donald Trump: 108,572
  • Hillary Clinton: 584,016

Counties included: Philadelphia

Allegheny

Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …

  • Has a higher share of people living in cities than average.
  • Has fewer non-White residents than average.
  • Has more college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
Image: Illustrated map of Pennsylvania.

When the president pulled the United States out of the Paris climate accord, he invoked Pennsylvania’s steel city as the reason. “I was elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh,” Trump said. “Not Paris.” Pittsburgh’s Democratic mayor, Bill Peduto, fired back by committing the city to international climate standards. Trump had been electorally obliterated in Pittsburgh, winning fewer votes than Romney, and the city has moved further to the left since then, with Democrats seizing on the Tree of Life synagogue shooting of 2018 to argue that the president has incited hatred and violence.

Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has politically tended to Pittsburgh for ages, jogging through the city’s Labor Day parade and giving two of his campaign’s major speeches there: his first address as a candidate last year and his Aug. 31 remarks about civil unrest. The president is politically toxic in the city itself and weak in its closest suburbs, but Clinton improved on Obama’s margin here by fewer than 20,000 votes. Biden is playing for a landslide, and getting one would minimize his losses up and down Interstate 79.

2016 vote total

Donald Trump

259,590

Hillary Clinton

367,369

2016 vote totals
  • Donald Trump: 259,590
  • Hillary Clinton: 367,369

Counties included: Allegheny

Southeast

Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …

  • Has a higher share of people living in cities than average.
  • Has an average share of non-White residents.
  • Has more college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
Image: Illustrated map of Pennsylvania.

Democrats can recall Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer’s theory word for word, and with a lot of pain: “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs in Philadelphia.” Tone-deafness aside, Schumer’s math was off. Clinton did blow away previous Democratic margins in the suburbs of Philadelphia, but Trump held onto more Republicans than Clinton expected, something she credited to the FBI’s 11th-hour probe of an aide’s laptop to check for more of her emails.

Republicans have lost ground in the region only since 2016, losing their historic registration advantage, losing control of local governments, and giving up two House seats after a 2018 court-ordered redistricting. (Moderate Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick narrowly held onto the Bucks County seat but has one of the least Trump-friendly voting records in his party.) The most rural parts of the region moved toward the GOP, but suburbs surged toward Democrats, with the party’s 2018 ticket winning each county by double digits.

2016 vote total

Donald Trump

553,758

Hillary Clinton

742,365

2016 vote totals
  • Donald Trump: 553,758
  • Hillary Clinton: 742,365

Counties included: Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery

Northeast

Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …

  • Has a lower share of people living in cities than average.
  • Has fewer non-White residents than average.
  • Has fewer college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
Image: Illustrated map of Pennsylvania.

If Democrats lost the 2016 election in one part of Pennsylvania, it was here, and they hardly saw it coming. Clinton’s suburb-centered campaign spent little time in working-class White towns that had always supported Democrats. The Trump campaign, which had watched then-Rep. Lou Barletta turn his part of the region red by cracking down on undocumented immigrants, made a serious play here. The result was the biggest regional flip in the state, with a roughly 36,000-vote margin for Obama in 2012 turning into an approximately 86,000-vote margin for Trump — enough all by itself to turn the state red.

Much of the movement came in Luzerne County, where the city of Wilkes-Barre stayed blue but the townships around it surged toward the GOP. Democrats won it back in 2018, improving throughout the region, but Trump’s protectionist trade messaging and anti-establishment positioning was perfect for towns and cities that had been told for decades that someone was coming to reverse their decline. Scranton’s Lackawanna County stayed blue, but only by a hair; in 2012, the Obama-Biden ticket won it by 27 points.

2016 vote total

Donald Trump

422,590

Hillary Clinton

336,845

2016 vote totals
  • Donald Trump: 422,590
  • Hillary Clinton: 336,845

Counties included: Carbon, Lackawanna, Lehigh, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton, Pike, Schuylkill, Susquehanna, Wayne, Wyoming

Dutch Country

Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …

  • Has a lower share of people living in cities than average.
  • Has fewer non-White residents than average.
  • Has fewer college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
Image: Illustrated map of Pennsylvania.

George W. Bush never carried Pennsylvania, but it was his reelection campaign that first realized how many more Republican votes were obtainable in Dutch Country and the region around the state capital of Harrisburg. Bush added 30,000 votes to his total in Lancaster County from 2000 to 2004, and not even Trump has matched that performance since. But Democrats learned the hard way, with Trump, that social conservatives were just as happy voting for a brash, thrice-married New Yorker as they were voting for a traditional family man.

Across the region, Trump improved the GOP margin from more than 156,000 votes to more than 225,000 votes, winning everything outside of the small cities, like Harrisburg, York, Lebanon and Lancaster. Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf, who lives in York, cut those margins in his 2018 reelection but still lost the region. Democrats are also competing seriously for the 10th Congressional District, which backed Trump by nine points in 2016 but reelected Republican Rep. Scott Perry in 2018 by just three points — a potential hint at how Democrats can bid for voters in a conservative region that doesn’t rely on energy exploration for economic growth.

2016 vote total

Donald Trump

630,294

Hillary Clinton

404,959

2016 vote totals
  • Donald Trump: 630,294
  • Hillary Clinton: 404,959

Counties included: Adams, Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, York

Central

Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …

  • Has a lower share of people living in cities than average.
  • Has fewer non-White residents than average.
  • Has fewer college-educated residents than average.
Image without a caption
Image: Illustrated map of Pennsylvania.

Thirty-six years ago, when James Carville helped elect Robert P. Casey Sr. as governor in a tight race, he summed up the commonwealth this way: “Between Paoli and Penn Hills, Pennsylvania is Alabama without the Blacks.” Democrats and Republicans have paraphrased that ever since, to explain the turnout war between the red rural “T” that connects Pittsburgh to Philadelphia. It was red before Trump ran, but he made it redder, adding more than 120,000 Republican votes as Democratic turnout stayed flat.

Across the region, only Centre County, home to Penn State University, leans toward Democrats, and the party’s win margin comes entirely from the borough of State College. That advantage might be hampered by the pandemic, which has stranded many students off campus and made traditional Democratic campaigning at universities impossible. There are no similar problems for Republicans, who were excited enough about Trump in 2016 and now have four years of antiabortion, pro-Second Amendment, pro-fracking policies to run on. The only questions are about the size of the coming Trump landslide here.

2016 vote total

Donald Trump

448,048

Hillary Clinton

182,955

2016 vote totals
  • Donald Trump: 448,048
  • Hillary Clinton: 182,955

Counties included: Armstrong, Bedford, Blair, Bradford, Cameron, Centre, Clarion, Clearfield, Clinton, Columbia, Elk, Forest, Fulton, Huntingdon, Indiana, Jefferson, Juniata, Lycoming, McKean, Mifflin, Montour, Northumberland, Potter, Snyder, Sullivan, Tioga, Union, Venango, Warren

West

Compared with the state overall, the voting population here …

  • Has a lower share of people living in cities than average.
  • Has fewer non-White residents than average.
  • Has fewer college-educated residents than average.
Image: (Lauren Tierney/The Washington Post)
Image: Illustrated map of Pennsylvania.

Twenty years ago, Al Gore swept every county in southwestern Pennsylvania, and an antiabortion Democrat from the region was the party’s nominee for Senate. Republicans have gained ground in the region ever since, as conservative Democrats were swept out of local offices, and pro-coal, pro-gun messaging became even more associated with the GOP. By 2016, as noted above, national Democrats were literally writing it off. But they thought they could do so, because they were winning elections without it.

The party won back some ground in 2018, but not much; even Rep. Conor Lamb, who won an old district cutting through the region, lost every county and was elected thanks to his strength in Pittsburgh’s closest suburbs, in Allegheny County. But he reduced the GOP’s win margins to the levels they’d won by in 2008, and a Biden performance at that level would complicate the Republicans’ statewide strategy. For a Democrat, losing the region by 110,000 or so votes, as Obama did in 2012, was survivable; losing it by 240,000 votes, as Hillary Clinton did, was not.

Biden, one of very few national Democratic Party figures who campaigned for Lamb, has stayed close to him, and has tailored his position on fracking — no ban but no new fossil fuel exploration on federal land — to the region. Local Democrats remain nervous that Biden has not campaigned in Erie County, which moved to Trump in 2016, and that he has not done more to combat the false accusation that he would “ban fracking.” On Aug. 31, when Biden came to Pittsburgh and denounced a fracking ban, his eyes were on the region outside the city. When he campaigned in Latrobe’s Westmoreland County a few days later, Trump was thinking about the same thing.

2016 vote total

Donald Trump

547,551

Hillary Clinton

307,559

2016 vote totals
  • Donald Trump: 547,551
  • Hillary Clinton: 307,559

Counties included: Beaver, Butler, Cambria, Crawford, Erie, Fayette, Greene, Lawrence, Mercer, Somerset, Washington, Westmoreland

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Meet Shannon Waters, The Narwhal’s B.C. politics and environment reporter – The Narwhal

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When Shannon Waters first joined the press gallery at the B.C. legislature, the decision on whether or not to continue the Site C dam project was looming large. Shannon was there as a reporter for BC Today, a daily political newsletter, and she remembers being blown away by long-time Narwhal reporter Sarah Cox’s work.

“Her ability to look at these huge complex reports, which, at the time, I mostly just felt like I was drowning in, and cut through that to tell stories about what was really going on was impressive,” Shannon says. “That was my initial intro and I have been following The Narwhal ever since!” 

Fast forward more than six years later, Shannon joins The Narwhal as our first-ever B.C. politics and environment reporter. And get this, Sarah will be her editor in the new gig. 

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“After years of admiring their work, I’m excited to work with Sarah and the whole Narwhal team,” Shannon says.

I sat down with Shannon to get to know her better and hear more about what brought her The Narwhal’s growing pod. 

What’s your favourite animal? 

That’s easy, it’s an octopus. I have one tattooed on my arm. I just think it’s really neat that we have a creature on this planet as intelligent as an octopus. It’s the closest thing to alien life that we’ve ever come across but it’s right here on the planet with us. And I think that’s very cool. 

The Narwhal’s new B.C. politics and environment reporter Shannon Waters comes by her name honestly, she’s a real water and ocean lover. Photo: Jillian Miller / The Narwhal

What is the thing about journalism that gets you excited to start your work day?

I get excited about working as a journalist because every day is a bit different. I like having the opportunity to learn new things on a regular basis, partly because I get bored really easily. 

My favorite thing about being a reporter is you never really know exactly how your day is gonna go and you’re always getting to talk to interesting people. As a bonus, I also really like to write, and I always have.

Your first job was at a radio station in Prince George, B.C. How did this early experience shape you?

I think it really honed my sense of journalism being part of the community and a community service. We covered all kinds of things. I was on the school board beat when I first got there and then I was covering city hall a little later on. I did a weekend shift. I covered crime stories.

Sometimes you’d start out the day covering one story and then by the end of the day, you’d be doing something else. I was also in Prince George in 2017, for the wildfires, and the city became a hub for people who were displaced from all across B.C. That was a really intense, eye-opening experience about what communities can do for people when they are put to the test. So again, learning things, and that variety and getting to write about them for a living.

You’re a self-described political nerd. Where does that come from? 

I’m fascinated by politics because it touches every aspect of our lives, and there’s not really any way to get away from it. I consider myself a bit cynical about our political systems but even if you don’t like them, or don’t believe in them, or don’t want anything to do with them, you can’t really get away from politics. I find it fascinating to look at what is going on in the political sphere, what kind of policies are popular at the moment? Which ones are being rejected? How is that conversation going? How did it get started? Where might it go? And politics is also about people. 

I like being someone who can hopefully try and help people understand why politics matters, what they can do to try and affect the change that they might want to see and how the politics in their area or the policies being enacted by politicians affects them and the people around them. It’s not something that everybody finds fascinating. A lot of people’s eyes glaze over when you tell them you’re a political or a legislative reporter. But I really enjoy the work. And it’s one of those things that feels like, well, somebody should be doing it. And so for now, at least, that somebody can be me.

It’s an election year in B.C. What are you most excited about?

I’m looking forward to seeing what happens. We’re really in a very interesting space in B.C. right now. If you were talking to me a year ago about the election, I would probably have sounded a bit more bored, because it seemed like much more of a foregone conclusion — you know, the NDP were going to likely win a majority and we’d have sort of more of the same. But now you have this really interesting churn in the political landscape with the emergence of the B.C. Conservatives as a real contender of a party according to the polling that we’ve been seeing. Meanwhile B.C. United, which is the very well-established B.C. Liberal party renamed, has sort of had the wheels come off. 

So, I’m really interested to see what happens on the campaign trail as you have these parties trying to court voters, what sort of ideas they’re going to put forward. I’m also really curious what it means for the Green Party. B.C. hasn’t had a lot of elections where we’ve had so many parties competing for seats in the legislature and I think that’s going to make for a very interesting and probably quite dramatic campaign.

Shannon Waters, The Narwhal's B.C. politics and environment reporter, looks out at the trees wearing a Narwhal shirt.
Shannon is no stranger to the B.C. legislature and will be digging deep as she grows the politics and environment beat for The Narwhal. Photo: Jillian Miller / The Narwhal

What kind of stories do you hope to tell more of?

I am excited about getting more in depth. I’ve been doing daily news for about seven years now, including covering elections. I have really enjoyed doing that and I feel like when you’re a daily news reporter you also have all these thoughts about potential stories that need a closer look or more time to percolate. So I’m really looking forward to looking at the news landscape and seeing what’s missing. With the election, I’m also excited to look back and think: what was the government saying about this particular policy in the last election? What have they done on it during the interim? And what are they saying now? 

I think one of the biggest things I learned as BC Today’s reporter and later Politics Today’s editor-in-chief is finding the stories in the minutia and the nuts and bolts of what goes on in the legislature. There’s a list that has been building in my head for a long time of all of these stories that I’ve wanted to take a closer look at over the years and I’m excited to get started. 

What are three things people might not know about you?

I could eat peanut butter toast and drink coffee every day of my life and die happy. Growing up I wanted to be a marine biologist and study either sharks or cephalopods. I am the biggest word nerd, which can be a good thing for someone who writes for a living, but is sometimes a struggle. I am still striving to use the word “absquatulate” in a story someday!

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Trudeau questions Poilievre's judgment, says the Conservative Leader 'will do anything to win' – The Globe and Mail

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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is flanked by Minister of Housing Sean Fraser, right, and Treasury Board President Anita Anand, left, during a press conference in Oakville, Ont., on April 24.Cole Burston/The Canadian Press

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau criticized Pierre Poilievre over his judgment, a day after the Conservative Leader visited a protest against carbon pricing that featured a “Make Canada Great Again” slogan and a symbol that appeared to be tied to a far-right, anti-government group.

Mr. Trudeau accused Mr. Poilievre of exacerbating divisions and welcoming the “support of conspiracy theorists and extremists.”

“Every politician has to make choices about what kind of leader they want to be,” the Prime Minister said at a press conference Wednesday in Oakville, Ont.

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“He will do anything to win, anything to torque up negativity and fear and it only emphasizes that he has nothing to say to actually solve the problems that he’s busy amplifying.”

On Tuesday, Mr. Poilievre stopped at a protest against carbon pricing near the New Brunswick-Nova Scotia border while on his way from PEI to Nova Scotia. Video of the protest shows an expletive-laden flag directed at Mr. Trudeau that was a symbol of the anti-vaccine-mandate protests that gripped Ottawa two years ago, as well as an anti-carbon-tax sign and a van with the slogan “Make Canada Great Again” written on it.

“We saw you so I told the team to pull over and say ‘hello,’” Mr. Poilievre said to the protesters in one of the videos posted online. He thanked them for “all you’re doing.”

“We’re going to axe the tax and its going to be in part because you guys fought back,” Mr. Poilievre said in the videos. “Everyone hates the tax because everyone’s been screwed over. People believed his lies. Everything he said was bullshit, from top to bottom.”

When asked to take a picture in front of the flag with the expletive, Mr. Poilievre responded: “Let’s do it in front of something else.”

One of the vans at the protests has what appeared to be a symbol of the anti-government, far-right group called Diagolon. Mr. Trudeau tried on Wednesday to tie that to Mr. Poilievre. The Conservative Leader has previously disavowed the group.

In a statement Wednesday through his lawyer, the group’s leader, Jeremy MacKenzie, said he was Mr. Poilievre’s biggest detractor in Canada. He also criticized Mr. Trudeau, saying “both of these weak men are completely out of touch with reality and incapable of telling the truth.”

Mr. Poilievre’s office defended the Conservative Leader’s visit to the protest in a statement on Wednesday.

“As a vocal opponent of Justin Trudeau’s punishing carbon tax which has driven up the cost of groceries, gas and heating, he made a brief, impromptu stop,” spokesperson Sebastian Skamski said.

“If Justin Trudeau is concerned about extremism, he should look at parades on Canadian streets openly celebrating Hamas’ slaughter of Jews on October 7th.”

During his press conference, Mr. Trudeau also pointed out that Mr. Poilievre has done nothing to reject the endorsement of right-wing commentator Alex Jones earlier this month. Mr. Jones, on X, called Mr. Poilievre “the real deal” and said “Canada desperately needs a lot more leaders like him and so does the rest of the world.”

Mr. Jones was ordered to pay nearly $1-billion in damages to the families of the victims of the deadly 2012 Sandy Hook school shooting, which he portrayed as a hoax.

“This is the kind of man who’s saying Pierre Poilievre has the right ideas to bring the country toward the right, towards conspiracy theories, towards extremism, towards polarization,” Mr. Trudeau said.

In response to the Prime Minister’s remarks, Mr. Skamski said “we do not follow” Mr. Jones “or listen to what he has to say.”

“Common-sense Conservatives are listening to the priorities of the millions of Canadians that want to axe the tax, build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime,” he added.

“It is the endorsement of hard-working, everyday Canadians that Conservatives are working to earn. Unlike Justin Trudeau, we’re not paying attention to what some American is saying.”

With a report from The Canadian Press.

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Politics Briefing: Younger demographics not swayed by federal budget benefits targeted at them, poll indicates

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Hello,

The federal government’s efforts to connect with Gen Z adults and millennials through programs in last week’s federal budget has not yet worked, says a new poll.

The Angus Reid Institute says today that the opposition Conservatives are running at 43 per cent voter support compared to 23 per cent for the governing Liberals, while the NDP are at 19 per cent.

Polling by the institute also finds the Liberals are the third choice among Gen Z and millennial voters, falling behind the NDP and Conservatives.

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According to the institute, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is viewed more positively among Gen Z adults than Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with Poilievre at 29 per cent approval and Trudeau at 17 per cent. Poilievre also has a higher favorability than Trudeau’s approval among younger and older millennials.

Gen Z adults were born between 1997 and 2012, while the birth period of millennials was 1981 to 1996.

The poll conclusions are based on online polling conducted from April 19 – three days after the budget was released – to April 23, among a randomized sample of 3, 015 Canadians. Such research has a probability sample of plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Asked about the poll today, Trudeau said the budget is aimed at solving problems, helping young people and delivering homes and services such as child care.

“I am confident that as Canadians see these measures happening, they will be more optimistic about their future, the way we need them to be,” Trudeau told a news conference in Oakville, Ont.

He also said he expected Canadians to be thoughtful about the future when they vote. “I trust Canadians to be reasonable,” he said.

The Globe and Mail has previously reported that Trudeau’s government has set an internal goal of narrowing the Conservative Party’s double-digit lead by five points every six months. A federal election is expected next year.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter sign-up page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

TODAY’S HEADLINES

Pierre Poilievre visits convoy camp, claims Trudeau is lying about ‘everything’: CBC reports that the Conservative Leader is facing questions after stopping to cheer on an anti-carbon tax convoy camp near the border between New Brunswick and Nova Scotia, where he bluntly accused Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of lying about “everything.”

Smith defends appointment of task force led by doctor skeptical of COVID-19 measures: The Globe and Mail has published details of the little-known task force that was given a sweeping mandate by the government to assess data used to inform pandemic decision-making. Story here.

Canadians should expect politicians to support right to bail, Arif Virani’s office says: The office of Canada’s Justice Minister says, warning that “immediate” and “uninformed reactions” only worsens matters.

Parti Québécois is on its way back to the centre of Quebec politics: The province’s next general election isn’t until 2026, a political eternity away, and support for separating from Canada remains stagnant. But a resurgent Quebec nationalism, frustration with Ottawa, and the PQ’s youthful, upbeat leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon have put sovereignty back on the agenda.

Anaida Poilievre in B.C.: The wife of the federal Conservative Leader has been on a visit to Kelowna in recent days that was expected to conclude today, according to Castanet.net.

Ontario to do away with sick note requirement for short absences: The province will soon introduce legislation that, if passed, will no longer allow employers to require a sick note from a doctor for the provincially protected three days of sick leave workers are entitled to.

Australian reporter runs into visa trouble in India after reporting on slaying of Canadian Sikh separatist: In a statement, the New York-based Committee to Protect Journalists said Indian authorities should safeguard press freedom and stop using visa regulations to prevent foreign journalists covering sensitive subjects.

Canadian military to destroy 11,000 Second World War-era pistols: The Ottawa Citizen reports that the move comes as the Canadian Forces confirmed it has received the final deliveries of a new nine-millimetre pistol as part of a $19.4-million project.

B.C. opposition leader in politics-free oasis: The first hint that there may be more to Kevin Falcon, leader of the official opposition BC United party, than his political stereotype comes when you pull up to his North Vancouver home – a single-level country cottage rancher dwarfed on one side by large, angular, modern monstrosity. A NorthernBeat profile.

TODAY’S POLITICAL QUOTES.

“Having an argument with CRA about not wanting to pay your taxes is not a position I want anyone to be in. Good luck with that Premier Moe.” – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the Canada Revenue Agency weighing in on Saskatchewan’s government move to stop collecting and remitting the federal carbon levy.

“That’s not something that we’re hoping for. We’re not trying to plan for an election.“ – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, at a news conference in Edmonton today, on the possibilities of an election now ahead of the vote expected in the fall of 2025.

THIS AND THAT

Commons, Senate: The House of Commons is on a break until April 29. The Senate sits again April 30.

Deputy Prime Minister’s day: In the Newfoundland and Labrador city of Mount Pearl, Chrystia Freeland held an event to talk about the federal budget.

Ministers on the road: Cabinet efforts to sell the budget continue, with announcements largely focused on housing. Citizens’ Services Minister Terry Beech and Small Business Minister Rechie Valdez are in Burnaby, B.C. Defence Minister Bill Blair is in Yellowknife. Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault is in Edmonton. Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Natural Revenue Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau are in the Quebec city of Trois-Rivières.

Indigenous Services Minister Patty Hajdu is in Lytton, B.C., with an additional event welcoming members of the Skwlāx te Secwepemcúl̓ecw band to four new subdivisions built after the 2023 Bush Creek East wildfire. International Development Minister Ahmed Hussen is in Sault Ste. Marie. Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly is in Québec City. Diversity Minister Kamal Khera is in Kingston, Ontario. Immigration Minister Marc Miller and Tourism Minister Soraya Martinez Ferrada are in Whitehorse. Justice Minister Arif Virani and Families Minister Jenna Sudds are in North York, Ont. Veterans Affairs Minister Ginette Petitpas Taylor is in Charlottetown.

Meanwhile, International Trade Minister Mary Ng is in South Korea leading a group of businesses and organizations through to tomorrow.

GG in Saskatchewan: Mary Simon and her partner, Whit Fraser, on the last day of their official visit to Saskatchewan, is in Saskatoon, with commitments that include visiting the Maternal Care Centre at the Jim Pattison Hospital and meeting with Indigenous leaders.

Ukraine needs more military aid, UCC says: The Ukrainian Canadian Congress says Canada should substantially increase military assistance to Ukraine. “As President Zelensky stated, “The key now is speed,’” said a statement today from the organization. The appeal coincides with U.S. President Joe Biden signing into law an aid package that provides over US$61-billion in aid for Ukraine. “We call on the Canadian government and all allies to follow suit and to immediately and substantially increase military assistance to Ukraine,” said the statement. An update issued on the occasion of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s February visit to Ukraine noted that, since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Canadian government has provided $13.3-billion to Ukraine.

New chief commissioner of the Canadian Grain Commission: David Hunt, most recently an assistant deputy minister in Manitoba’s environment department, has been named to the post for a four-year term by Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay.

PRIME MINISTER’S DAY

In Oakville, near Toronto, Justin Trudeau talked about federal-budget housing measures, and took media questions.

LEADERS

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet is in the Quebec city of Victoriaville, with commitments that include a meeting at the Centre for Social Innovation in Agriculture

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, in the Vancouver Island city of Nanaimo, attended the sentencing of deputy party leader Angela Davidson, also known as Rainbow Eyes, convicted of seven counts of criminal contempt for her participation in the Fairy Creek logging blockades on Vancouver Island.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, in Edmonton, held a media availability.

No schedule released for Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre.

THE DECIBEL

James Griffiths, The Globe’s Asia correspondent, is on the show t to discuss Article 23 – a new national security law in Hong Kong that includes seven new offences related to sedition, treason and state secrets that is expected to have a chilling effect on protest. The Decibel is here.

OPINION

The Liberals’ capital-gains tax hike punishes prosperity

“In her budget speech this month, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pointed to 1980s-era tax changes by the Progressive Conservative government of Brian Mulroney as a precedent for boosting the tax take on capital gains. … If one were to leave it at that, the Liberals come off quite well, having decided to boost the inclusion rate for capital gains – the amount subject to tax – to two-thirds, well below that of the latter years of the Mulroney government. But Ms. Freeland was only telling half the story.” – The Globe and Mail Editorial Board

The Liberals weight-loss goal shows they are running out of options

“The bad polls are weighing down the Liberals, so they have decided to shed some weight: They aim to cut the Conservatives’ lead by five percentage points by July. Like middle-aged dieters beginning a new regime, they’ve looked in the mirror and decided they have to do something. They’ve committed to it, too.” – Campbell Clark

Fear the politicization of pensions, no matter the politician

“Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland don’t have a lot in common. But they do share at least one view: that governments could play a bigger role directing pension investments to the benefit of domestic industries and economic priorities. Canadians, no matter who they vote for, should be worried that these two political heavyweights share any common ground in this regard.” – Kelly Cryderman

The failure of Canada’s health care system is a disgrace – and a deadly one

“What can be said about Canada’s health care system that hasn’t been said countless times over, as we watch more and more people suffer and die as they wait for baseline standards of care? Despite our delusions, we don’t have “world-class” health care, as our Prime Minister has said; we don’t even have universal health care. What we have is health care if you’re lucky, or well connected, or if you happen to have a heart attack on a day when your closest ER is merely overcapacity as usual, and not stuffed to the point of incapacitation.” – Robyn Urback

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