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Pfizer poised for drop after US$48B climb on COVID vaccine – BNN

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Pfizer Inc.’s US$48 billion gain in market value since late March, egged on by optimism for a successful Covid-19 vaccine, may soon hit a wall.

Among the top three developers, Pfizer may be first to reveal late-stage results from its trials of tens of thousands of people with partner BioNTech SE. And if history is any guide, the shares may eventually head lower no matter what the data show.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. calls it the vaccine trade — where daytrading generalist investors pile into stocks developing treatments and vaccines for the disease, then flee shortly after results or updates that appear to be good news. It happened to Gilead Sciences Inc. — shares of the drugmaker fell back to earth as soon as its antiviral medicine for Covid-19 secured a regulatory nod in early May.

For Pfizer, the vaccine fueled run-up has gotten ahead of “the fundamental opportunity,” JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Chris Schott said in a research note. The bank’s clients were most bearish on Pfizer, he said.

The recently expanded late-stage study in 44,000 patients of Pfizer and BioNTech’s messenger-RNA vaccine may have data in coming weeks. Pfizer targets a regulatory filing on its shot in the U.S. as soon as October. Moderna Inc.’s late-stage data and AstraZeneca Plc’s efforts with the University of Oxford aren’t far behind. Astra’s trial in the U.K. has resumed after a pause of less than a week after a participant fell ill.

“Buying ahead of the data is quite risky,” said Adam Barker, an analyst with Shore Capital Group Ltd. “The next big data readouts will actually tell us whether the vaccine has worked or not,” he said. “If its efficacy is less than a 50 per cent reduction in risk, that’s not ideal,” he said, alluding to the Food and Drug Administration’s bar for approval.

Pfizer didn’t immediately respond to an email or phone call requesting comment.

Generalists, Specialists

On the day after data is released for major vaccine players, “the focus will shift to commercial execution,” said Mani Foroohar, an analyst at SVB Leerink, who recently gave Moderna it’s first bear call. “It’s a very different skill set of investing as opposed to trading,” he said in a phone interview.

Goldman Sachs analyst Asad Haider agreed, writing that “generalists seem focused on playing forward headlines on vaccine progress as feeding into the recovery/reopen trade.” On the other hand, “specialists continue to debate, among other things, the economics for all vaccine players with a generally negative bias,” according to a client note last month.

Stocks with Covid-19 medicine results typically outperform ahead of an update as well as the two days immediately after before fading and giving back advances in the following four days, according to Goldman’s historical analysis.

Options analysis imply a 12 per cent share move in either direction for Pfizer by November. For partner BioNTech, options suggest an even wider move — in the 50 per cent range. American depository receipts of the German company have doubled this year, though the stock has fallen from a record in July on the heels of a stock offering.

The trials will gauge how effective a vaccine is based on infection rates in those getting a placebo compared with those getting a shot and may produce interim results as soon as the first 30 or 40 people become infected. How quickly those infections occur will have an impact on the timing of interim results.

“It’s truly a numbers game,” Yaron Werber, an analyst at Cowen & Co., said in a phone interview. Werber and a handful of other Wall Street analysts view the Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine as the most promising so far, though the advantages are based on surrogate measures of neutralizing antibody and immune-fighting T-cell levels that only offer suggestions of how effective the shots may be.

The timing of a vaccine has come under increasing scrutiny as the U.S. presidential election nears and President Donald Trump appears to be pressuring the Food and Drug Administration for a shot, despite assurances from the agency as well as some drugmakers that decisions will be based on science.

Market strategists have been optimistic. UBS Group AG sees more than a 50 per cent chance of a vaccine by the first half of 2021. “The equity market is pricing in less than that, particularly at the industry/stock level,” the bank’s strategists led by Keith Parker wrote. “This implies the balance of risks is tilted to the upside.”

Broader Market

There’s a difference between the impact for the market and for individual companies, according to Daniel Mahony, a health-care fund manager at Polar Capital LLP in London. If Pfizer announces data that suggest something meets the FDA’s gating criteria of at least 50 per cent effectiveness, markets may get a “slight relief that actually we might be getting a tool that can help governments get this under control,” he said.

Still, promising signs from earlier vaccine studies don’t “necessarily mean that’s going to work,” he said. “We just have to wait for the data.”

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Stop Asking Your Interviewer Cliché Questions

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Most job search advice is cookie-cutter. The advice you’re following is almost certainly the same advice other job seekers follow, making you just another candidate following the same script.

In today’s hyper-competitive job market, standing out is critical, a challenge most job seekers struggle with. Instead of relying on generic questions recommended by self-proclaimed career coaches, which often lead to a forgettable interview, ask unique, thought-provoking questions that’ll spark engaging conversations and leave a lasting impression.

English philosopher Francis Bacon once said, “A prudent question is one half of wisdom.”

The questions you ask convey the following:

  • Your level of interest in the company and the role.
  • Contributing to your employer’s success is essential.
  • You desire a cultural fit.

Here are the top four questions experts recommend candidates ask; hence, they’ve become cliché questions you should avoid asking:

  • “What are the key responsibilities of this position?”

Most likely, the job description answers this question. Therefore, asking this question indicates you didn’t read the job description. If you require clarification, ask, “How many outbound calls will I be required to make daily?” “What will be my monthly revenue target?”

  • “What does a typical day look like?”

Although it’s important to understand day-to-day expectations, this question tends to elicit vague responses and rarely leads to a deeper conversation. Don’t focus on what your day will look like; instead, focus on being clear on the results you need to deliver. Nobody I know has ever been fired for not following a “typical day.” However, I know several people who were fired for failing to meet expectations. Before accepting a job offer, ensure you’re capable of meeting the employer’s expectations.

  • “How would you describe the company culture?”

Asking this question screams, “I read somewhere to ask this question.” There are much better ways to research a company’s culture, such as speaking to current and former employees, reading online reviews and news articles. Furthermore, since your interviewer works for the company, they’re presumably comfortable with the culture. Do you expect your interviewer to give you the brutal truth? “Be careful of Craig; get on his bad side, and he’ll make your life miserable.” “Bob is close to retirement. I give him lots of slack, which the rest of the team needs to pick up.”

Truism: No matter how much due diligence you do, only when you start working for the employer will you experience and, therefore, know their culture firsthand.

  • “What opportunities are there for professional development?”

When asked this question, I immediately think the candidate cares more about gaining than contributing, a showstopper. Managing your career is your responsibility, not your employer’s.

Cliché questions don’t impress hiring managers, nor will they differentiate you from your competition. To transform your interaction with your interviewer from a Q&A session into a dynamic discussion, ask unique, insightful questions.

Here are my four go-to questions—I have many moreto accomplish this:

  • “Describe your management style. How will you manage me?”

This question gives your interviewer the opportunity to talk about themselves, which we all love doing. As well, being in sync with my boss is extremely important to me. The management style of who’ll be my boss is a determining factor in whether or not I’ll accept the job.

  • “What is the one thing I should never do that’ll piss you off and possibly damage our working relationship beyond repair?”

This question also allows me to determine whether I and my to-be boss would be in sync. Sometimes I ask, “What are your pet peeves?”

  • “When I join the team, what would be the most important contribution you’d want to see from me in the first six months?”

Setting myself up for failure is the last thing I want. As I mentioned, focus on the results you need to produce and timelines. How realistic are the expectations? It’s never about the question; it’s about what you want to know. It’s important to know whether you’ll be able to meet or even exceed your new boss’s expectations.

  • “If I wanted to sell you on an idea or suggestion, what do you need to know?”

Years ago, a candidate asked me this question. I was impressed he wasn’t looking just to put in time; he was looking for how he could be a contributing employee. Every time I ask this question, it leads to an in-depth discussion.

Other questions I’ve asked:

 

  • “What keeps you up at night?”
  • “If you were to leave this company, who would follow?”
  • “How do you handle an employee making a mistake?”
  • “If you were to give a Ted Talk, what topic would you talk about?”
  • “What are three highly valued skills at [company] that I should master to advance?”
  • “What are the informal expectations of the role?”
  • “What is one misconception people have about you [or the company]?”

 

Your questions reveal a great deal about your motivations, drive to make a meaningful impact on the business, and a chance to morph the questioning into a conversation. Cliché questions don’t lead to meaningful discussions, whereas unique, thought-provoking questions do and, in turn, make you memorable.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

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Canadian Natural Resources reports $2.27-billion third-quarter profit

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CALGARY – Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. reported a third-quarter profit of $2.27 billion, down from $2.34 billion in the same quarter last year.

The company says the profit amounted to $1.06 per diluted share for the quarter that ended Sept. 30 compared with $1.06 per diluted share a year earlier.

Product sales totalled $10.40 billion, down from $11.76 billion in the same quarter last year.

Daily production for the quarter averaged 1,363,086 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 1,393,614 a year ago.

On an adjusted basis, Canadian Natural says it earned 97 cents per diluted share for the quarter, down from an adjusted profit of $1.30 per diluted share in the same quarter last year.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 90 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CNQ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Cenovus Energy reports $820M Q3 profit, down from $1.86B a year ago

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CALGARY – Cenovus Energy Inc. reported its third-quarter profit fell compared with a year as its revenue edged lower.

The company says it earned $820 million or 42 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30, down from $1.86 billion or 97 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue for the quarter totalled $14.25 billion, down from $14.58 billion in the same quarter last year.

Total upstream production in the quarter amounted to 771,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down from 797,000 a year earlier.

Total downstream throughput was 642,900 barrels per day compared with 664,300 in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Cenovus says its funds flow amounted to $1.05 per diluted share in its latest quarter, down from adjusted funds flow of $1.81 per diluted share a year earlier.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 31, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CVE)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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