Canada was left out of the trilateral defence and security pact known as AUKUS — and a new report by a respected American think-tank says Ottawa must overcome its apparent indifference to the deal or risk being left behind by its allies.
The analysis report, published online Tuesday by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, was co-authored by Vincent Rigby, a former national security and intelligence adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
The report pulled no punches.
“The glacial pace at which Canada appears to be adapting to the realities of modern great power competition has left it far behind the curve, with consequences for both Ottawa’s reputation among its allies and its ability to protect Canadian territory, sovereignty, and contribute to global peace and stability,” said the report, which probed the reasons why Canada was left out of AUKUS.
“The simple answer is that Ottawa was apparently not invited.”
Several defence and diplomatic sources have said Canada was not invited to take part before the pact was formally announced by the United States, Britain and Australia in September 2021 .
CBC News is not naming the confidential sources of information because they are not authorized to speak publicly.
Rigby said he saw no indication Canada was about to be invited to join the arrangement that became AUKUS just a few months before it was announced.
“There was no indication when I was national security and intelligence adviser” that a deal was in the works, said Rigby, whose tenure as Trudeau’s national security and intelligence adviser ended in June 2021. (He fully retired from the public service in September 2021.)
Rigby said that while he worked with Trudeau, he had “regular discussions” with Canada’s allies in the Five Eyes intelligence sharing partnership — Canada, the U.S., the U.K., Australia and New Zealand — and the idea of AUKUS membership never came up.
“I had regular discussions with my counterparts in the United States, in the United Kingdom, in Australia. We talked about the threat environment,” he said. “We talked about how we, as a Five Eyes partnership, needed to do more in terms of responding to external threats, including from China, including in the Indo-Pacific region.
Canada not seen as a ‘significant player’
“But in terms of actually coming together and focusing on either submarine capability or broader defence, technological cooperation, that did not arise on my watch.”
He said that if Canada wasn’t invited to take part in AUKUS in the weeks following his departure from government, it “speaks volumes about the way Canada is perceived by its allies at the present time … that we’re not necessarily seen as a significant player on the international stage and in particular in the Indo-Pacific region.”
Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull told CBC News that it’s his understanding Canada was not invited because of its long-standing aversion to acquiring nuclear subs.
Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull: ‘I can understand why Canadians are really puzzled why they were not brought into the loop.’ (Rick Rycroft/Associated Press)
“The initiative for AUKUS came about because the then-Australian government, led by Mr. [Scott] Morrison, wanted to break the contract with France and wanted to proceed with naval nuclear propulsion,” said Turnbull, referring to his country’s previous plan to buy conventional submarines from France. That plan was cancelled in favour of the AUKUS arrangement.
“They began with discussions with the British and … then they then found their way to Washington,” Turnbull added.
The AUKUS pact has two main components or “pillars”: the acquisition by Australia of American and British nuclear submarine technology, and transfers of military technology and intelligence.
Turnbull said that since Canada doesn’t operate or manufacture nuclear submarines, or aspire to build a nuclear fleet, it wasn’t part of the dialogue.
“I can understand why Canadians are really puzzled why they were not brought into the loop,” he said, pointing out that Canada has a lot of experience with nuclear energy technology. “Canada does have a considerable and extensive nuclear experience in terms of operating nuclear civilian nuclear power stations. Australia does not.”
‘It caught us unaware’
Turnbull’s assessment agrees with former Canadian diplomat Colin Robertson’s perception of events.
“It caught us unaware, but the [political] balm was, well, we’ve got a preferred relationship with the United States, we don’t really need it,” said Robertson, now vice president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, an Ottawa-based think-tank that occasionally has hosted events sponsored by defence contractors.
The report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Canada would have been turned off by the cost of acquiring and maintaining a nuclear sub fleet through AUKUS.
In this photo provided by U.S. Navy, the Virginia-class fast-attack submarine USS Missouri (SSN 780) departs Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam for deployment on Sept. 1, 2021. (Amanda R. Gray/U.S. Navy via AP)
“The apparent indifference of Canada toward AUKUS seems to stem from a combination of sticker-shock and an inadequate understanding of the benefits to be derived from the agreement,” said the report, which noted the submarine portion of the deal could cost Australia between $268 billion and $368 billion Australian ($179 billion and $245 billion US) over a 30-year period.
Defence minister is asked whether Canada has requested to join AUKUS
Responding to questions about whether Canada has formally asked to be a part of AUKUS, Minister of National Defence Anita Anand says Canada is ‘highly interested in continuing to work with our allies, including Australia, the United States and the U.K.’
At an event on Wednesday at the Canadian War Museum in Ottawa, Defence Minister Anita Anand was asked whether Canada was told the allies were negotiating the creation of AUKUS. She avoided answering the question.
Anand said Canada is looking “forward” in its relationships with allies and wants to work with them on advanced technologies, such as AI, quantum computing and various forms of defence tech. She cited cooperation already underway between Canada and Australia on missile detection.
Canada has signaled it is interested in furthering its cooperation with allies in artificial intelligence and other high technology not related to the nuclear program.
Robertson said he doubts Canada’s allies are eager to see it at the table for the tech transfer and intelligence-sharing portion of the agreement.
“I don’t think the Australians want to see us in,” he said, adding that the Americans might admit Canada “if we push them hard enough.” He said that U.S. support likely would be conditional on Canada showing more initiative in meeting NORAD’s modernization goals in the Arctic.
Turnbull, however, argued that it’s in the best interests of all the allies to let Canada, and perhaps New Zealand, join the non-nuclear aspects of the arrangement.
“Is Canada better off not participating in the partnership with the U.K., Australia and the United States to build nuclear powered submarines? That is a question only Canadians can answer,” Turnbull said.
The former prime minister pointed out that the defence relationship between the members of the Five Eyes alliance “is so close already. Many people have questioned how it is possible for it to become any closer.
“But if it can be closer, if the collaboration, technological collaboration can become more seamless, that can only be a good thing.”
‘Canada has much to offer AUKUS’
The Center for Strategic and International Studies report agreed. It said that some of Canada’s policy framework and initiatives — particularly those related to the possession and development of critical minerals — make it an important potential partner.
“Canada has much to offer AUKUS, and vice versa,” said the report.
“But striking the right balance remains a challenge for both sides. For Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States, opening the door to too many partners too soon risks making the agreement overly broad and unwieldy.”
For Canada, said the report, the downside of joining AUKUS would be “demands over the longer term for dramatic increases in defence spending which may not be easy for Ottawa and the public writ large to accept.”
The consequences of not joining could be even less palatable, the report said.
“Beyond reputational damage, Canada’s weak security stance in the face of growing challenges from revanchist and revisionist powers will compromise Canadian national interests, as can be seen with aggressive Russian moves in the Arctic and increasingly hostile Chinese activities in Canada, including electoral interference.”
BATHURST, N.B. – RCMP in New Brunswick say a weekend ground search for evidence related to the disappearance of a teenage girl in 2021 didn’t reveal any new information.
In an emailed statement, the RCMP said 20 people participated in the search for evidence in the case of Madison Roy-Boudreau of Bathurst.
The release said the search occurred in the Middle River area, just south of the girl’s hometown.
Police have said the 14-year-old’s disappearance is being treated as a homicide investigation.
The RCMP said the search “did not reveal any new information regarding the circumstances of her disappearance.”
There are no plans for another search until police receive a tip or a lead pointing to a new search area.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
VICTORIA – A middle school in Victoria was forced into a lockdown after a man entered the building without permission, and police say they had to use a stun gun to make an arrest.
Victoria police say officers received multiple calls around noon on Monday of an unknown male entering Central Middle School, leading staff to set off emergency procedures that put the building under lockdown.
Police say its emergency response team arrived within minutes and found the suspect, who “appeared to be in a drug-induced state,” in the school’s library.
A statement from police says the suspect resisted arrest, and officers had to use a Taser to subdue the man.
He’s being held by police and has been assessed by emergency medical staff.
Police say the man was not armed and there were no continuing safety concerns for students and staff following the arrest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
VANCOUVER – Former B.C. Green leader Andrew Weaver knows what it’s like to form a minority government with the NDP, but says such a deal to create the province’s next administration is less likely this time than seven years ago.
Weaver struck a power-sharing agreement that resulted in John Horgan’s NDP minority government in 2017, but said in an interview Monday there is now more animosity between the two parties.
Neither the NDP nor the B.C. Conservatives secured a majority in Saturday’s election, raising the prospect of a minority NDP government if Leader David Eby can get the support of two Green legislators.
Manual recounts in two ridings could also play an important role in the outcome, which will not be known for about a week.
Weaver, who is no longer a member of the Greens, endorsed a Conservative candidate in his home riding.
He said Eby would be in a better position to negotiate if Furstenau, who lost her seat, stepped aside as party leader.
“I think Mr. Eby would be able to have fresh discussions with fresh new faces around the table, (after) four years of political sniping … between Sonia and the NDP in the B.C. legislature,” he said.
He said Furstenau’s loss put the two elected Greens in an awkward position because parties “need the leader in the legislature.”
Furstenau could resign as leader or one of the elected Greens could step down and let her run in a byelection in their riding, he said.
“They need to resolve that issue sooner rather than later,” he said.
The Green victories went to Rob Botterell in Saanich North and the Islands and Jeremy Valeriote in West Vancouver-Sea to Sky.
Neither Botterell nor Valeriote have held seats in the legislature before, Weaver noted.
“It’s not like in 2017 when, you know, I had been in the (legislature) for four years already,” Weaver said, adding that “the learning curve is steep.”
Sanjay Jeram, chair of undergraduate studies in political science at Simon Fraser University, said he doesn’t think it’ll be an “easygoing relationship between (the NDP and Greens) this time around.”
“I don’t know if Eby and Furstenau have the same relationship — or the potential to have the same relationship — as Horgan and Weaver did,” he said. “I think their demands will be a little more strict and it’ll be a little more of a cold alliance than it was in 2017 if they do form an alliance.”
Horgan and Weaver shook hands on a confidence-and-supply agreement before attending a rugby match, where they were spotted sitting together before the deal became public knowledge.
Eby said in his election-night speech that he had already reached out to Furstenau and suggested common “progressive values” between their parties.
Furstenau said in her concession speech that her party was poised to play a “pivotal role” in the legislature.
Botterell said in an election-night interview that he was “totally supportive of Sonia” and he would “do everything I can to support her and the path forward that she chooses to take because that’s her decision.”
The Green Party of Canada issued a news release Monday, congratulating the candidates on their victories, noting Valeriote’s win is the first time that a Green MLA has been elected outside of Vancouver Island.
“Now, like all British Columbians we await the final seat count to know which party will have the best chance to form government. Let’s hope that the Green caucus has a pivotal role,” the release said, echoing Furstenau’s turn of phrase.
The final results of the election won’t be known until at least next week.
Elections BC says manual recounts will be held on Oct. 26 to 28 in two ridings where NDP candidates led B.C. Conservatives by fewer than 100 votes after the initial count ended on Sunday.
The outcomes in Surrey City Centre and Juan de Fuca-Malahat could determine who forms government.
The election’s initial results have the NDP elected or leading in 46 ridings, and the B.C. Conservatives in 45, both short of the 47 majority mark in B.C.’s 93-seat legislature.
If the Conservatives win both of the recount ridings and win all other ridings where they lead, Rustad will win with a one-seat majority.
If the NDP holds onto at least one of the ridings where there are recounts, wins the other races it leads, and strikes a deal with the Greens, they would have enough numbers to form a minority government.
But another election could also be on the cards, since the winner will have to nominate a Speaker, reducing the government’s numbers in the legislature by one vote.
Elections BC says it will also be counting about 49,000 absentee and mail-in ballots from Oct. 26 to 28.
The NDP went into the election with 55 ridings, representing a comfortable majority in what was then an 87-seat legislature.
Jeram, with Simon Fraser University, said though the counts aren’t finalized, the Conservatives were the big winners in the election.
“They weren’t really a not much of a formal party until not that long ago, and to go from two per cent of the vote to winning 45 or more seats in the B.C. provincial election is just incredible,” he said in an interview Monday.
Jeram said people had expected Eby to call an election after he took over from John Horgan in 2022, and if he had, he doesn’t think there would have been the same result.
He said the B.C. Conservative’s popularity grew as a result of the decision of the BC Liberals to rebrand as BC United and later drop out.
“Had Eby called an election before that really shook out, and maybe especially before (Pierre) Poilievre, kind of really had the wind in his sails and started to grow, I think he could have won the majority for sure.”
He said he wasn’t surprised by the results of the election, saying polls were fairly accurate.
“Ultimately, it really was a result that we saw coming for a while, since the moment that BC United withdrew and put their support behind the conservatives, I think this was the outcome that was expected.”
— With files from Darryl Greer
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
