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Politics Podcast: Biggest Political Moments Of 2019. Key Questions For 2020. – FiveThirtyEight

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As the year comes to close, the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team looks back on the most significant political moments of 2019 and previews the most pressing questions of 2020. They also discuss the Democrats’ debate over health care and the events that led the House to impeach President Trump.

You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio player above or by downloading it in iTunes, the ESPN App or your favorite podcast platform. If you are new to podcasts, learn how to listen.

The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast publishes Monday evenings, with additional episodes throughout the week. Help new listeners discover the show by leaving us a rating and review on iTunes. Have a comment, question or suggestion for “good polling vs. bad polling”? Get in touch by email, on Twitter or in the comments.

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March 30, 2020 What's Next for Timor-Leste's Politics? – The Diplomat

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Since January, Timor-Leste’s politics has been shrouded in uncertainty following the collapse of its previous governing coalition after the failure to pass a budget amid coalition infighting. Though a new government looks set to take office soon, it will face a range of formidable challenges that will need addressing.

While Timor-Leste has made progress towards statebuilding in some areas since its full independence back in 2002 after a painful struggle against colonialism, it still faces significant political and economic challenges as one of the world’s poorest economies and a polity that that has seen eight governments come and go in less than two decades.

Those challenges have continued on over into 2020 as well. In January, the prior government that had been led by Prime Minister Taur Matan Ruak collapsed after failing to pass a budget, leaving open the possibility of the formation of a new government. And over the past month or so, indications surfaced that a six-party coalition in Timor-Leste led by independence leader and former prime minister Xanana Gusmao has the necessary support to form a new government.

But even if a new government does take office soon – the country’s ninth in less than two decades – Timor-Leste faces some significant challenges ahead. Politically, managing a six-party coalition with a slim majority at just 34 out of 65 parliamentary seats will not be easy, especially given its fragility (currently, the Gusmao-led National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT) holds 21 seats; KHUNTO and Democratic Party have five seats each; and three parties have just one seat each). Economically, beyond getting a budget passed, the new government will have to have to contend with short and long-term challenges which include falling energy prices amid a global coronavirus pandemic as well as advancing the Tasi Mane petroleum project, critical given that almost the entirety of government revenue still comes from hydrocarbons.

Of course, that does not mean that these issues are insurmountable. Indeed, for some, Gusmao’s return and the advent of a new government does offer a new opportunity to reset the country’s politics and make progress on the country’s challenges in a more sustainable manner amid what appears to be a more turbulent global outlook. But the key question for Timor-Leste, as ever, is less about whether it can form another government, but whether the country’s leaders can overcome their differences just enough to hold governing coalitions long enough to manage this mix of opportunities and challenges.

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Trump brings his tear-down-your-opponents politics to the coronavirus fight – The Washington Post

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“One of the issues we’re struggling with is the demand increase,” said Ed Pesicka, CEO of the health-care logistics company Owens & Minor. “You know, used an anecdotal example of one hospital in New York that traditionally uses roughly [10,000] to 20,000 masks a week [and is] now using [200,000] to 300,000 masks a week. So you multiply that times the entire U.S., let alone the same demand outside of the U.S.”

Trump seized on that increase to make a point.

“How do you go from 10 to 20, to 300,000? Ten to 20,000 masks to 300,000?” he said. “Even though this is different, something is going on, and you ought to look into it as reporters. Where are the masks going? Are they going out the back door? How do you go from 10,000 to 300,000? . . . Somebody should probably look into that, because I just don’t see, from a practical standpoint, how that’s possible to go from that to that.”

It’s not terribly complicated. An increase from 10,000 to 300,000 is a thirty-fold increase. Consider the sorts of shifts that might drive that increase: a virus that’s far more contagious than things like the seasonal flu, and a flood of patients pulling in health-care workers from throughout the hospital. The former shift means that protective equipment needs to be worn and changed more often. The latter means that more people need to wear it. That thirty-fold increase is the far end of the scale. Pesicka also talked about an increase from 20,000 to 200,000 — a jump only a third the size.

Later, after criticizing New York state for warehousing ventilators instead of distributing them immediately to hospitals, Trump revisited Pesicka’s comments, claiming that “the biggest man in the business is, like, shocked” at the increase — a sentiment that Pesicka did not express in his public comments.

Trump’s suggestion that the masks were being purloined quickly gained attention, prompting his campaign to go into damage-control mode. It focused on a statement from New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) from March 6.

“There have been thefts of medical equipment and masks from hospitals, believe it or not. Not just people taking a couple or three. I mean actual thefts of those products,” Cuomo said. He added that he has asked the state police to investigate marketplaces that are selling masks and “playing into this, exploiting anxiety.”

One campaign staffer also pointed to an article in which a doctor reported “thefts of respirator masks and other essential protective equipment in lobbies and other high-traffic areas.”

All of this distracts — intentionally — from Pesicka’s main point: the need for protective equipment is surging and straining the ability of manufacturers and distributors to provide it. For all of Trump’s touting of how much is being done, which continued during a lengthy interview on “Fox & Friends” on Monday morning, it’s nonetheless obvious that the resources were not on hand to meet the surging needs of hospitals across the country.

The Trump campaign has repeatedly cited Post reporting indicating that the national stockpile of medical supplies was not replenished after a surge in need in 2009, ignoring that three of the subsequent years were ones when Trump was president. Trump’s comments Sunday were probably driven in part by a Post report that an early-February request for $2 billion in funding to replenish the strategic stockpile was slashed to $500 million at the end of the month, a 75 percent cut.

Let’s say for the sake of argument that New York hospitals are losing 10 percent of their masks to theft. There’s no evidence that the scale of whatever losses are still occurring is that dramatic, but let’s just say it is. Does that change that there is a dire shortage of masks and a need for more? Does that reduce the number of masks that are needed? Should the federal government instead provide only the 10,000 or 20,000 that hospitals used to get?

Trump has repeatedly suggested that there is somehow something suspect about New York’s requests in particular. Perhaps he sincerely thinks there is, given the way in which some enrichment schemes in the city have historically worked. But his insistence to Fox News’s Sean Hannity that New York was requesting more ventilators than it needed last week — as well as his arguments on Fox on Monday that the state did not buy ventilators that were available when they were for sale in 2015 (and when the coronavirus at the center of the pandemic likely did not exist), that the state is not distributing ventilators (because it’s waiting to see where they’re needed) and that New York hospitals are allowing masks to be stolen by the thousands — all have a main focus: shifting blame away from himself and onto Cuomo and others.

This is a political strategy. It’s one that served him well in the 2016 general election campaign, focusing negative attention on Hillary Clinton and helping suppress enthusiasm for her candidacy. His victory that year can be attributed to people who didn’t like either major-party candidate, a group he won by double digits, including in the three states that gave him his electoral vote margin. Here, again, he is offering America another focus of its frustration.

For his base of support, it’s icing; most don’t need his redirection in order to stay loyal. For everyone else, though, it introduces a conversation about where points of failure exist that are not centered in the White House. His campaign officials respond to questions about Trump’s comments about the 300,000 masks as though they are incensed that the president’s claims should be treated with skepticism or were not obviously true. In reality, they and Trump are thrilled to have the conversation be one in which they can equate Cuomo’s narrow, old comments with Trump’s sweeping, new ones — and one in which masks being swiped from a hospital lobby in Boston is a reason that New York doesn’t have the masks it needs now.

Both on Sunday and in his interview Monday morning, Trump spoke about how the virus has affected a hospital in Queens, near where he grew up. It’s hard not to live in the area, as Trump did for most of his life, and not be affected by the obvious strains and fear that New Yorkers are experiencing.

For a president focused on winning reelection in seven months, though, it’s also hard to resist trying to figure out which opponent needs to be scapegoated to make yourself look better by comparison.

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Procedural politics: What just happened with the coronavirus bill? | TheHill – The Hill

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The procedural peregrinations of the $2.2 trillion emergency spending bill were dizzying to say the least; downright mind-boggling to be more accurate.

To begin, the Senate acted first on the stimulus package, notwithstanding the constitutional mandate and House precedents that require revenue and appropriations bills to originate in the House. That requirement was circumvented by the Senate taking up a minor 16-page House-passed tax bill and substituting the bill’s language in its entirely with the 800-plus-page emergency spending measure.

The original House bill (H.R. 748), titled the “Middle Class Health Benefits Tax Repeal Act,” was introduced by Rep. Joe CourtneyJoseph (Joe) D. CourtneyOvernight Defense: 32 dead in ISIS-claimed attack in Kabul | Trump says Taliban could ‘possibly’ overrun Afghan government when US leaves | House poised for Iran war powers vote next week Fixing the disability workforce crisis Overnight Defense: Inside Trump’s 4B Pentagon budget | Highlights include .4B for Space Force, preview of Air Force One paint job | Senate eyes Wednesday debate on Iran war powers | 109 US troops diagnosed with brain injuries from attack MORE (D-Conn.) in January 2019. It would repeal the excise tax on high-cost employer-sponsored healthcare coverage, the so-called “Cadillac tax” in the Affordable Care Act. By May, the bill had picked-up some 367 House co-sponsors, more than enough to qualify for placement on the new House Consensus Calendar (which requires at least 290 co-sponsors).

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In July 2019, Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard NealRichard Edmund NealDemocrats eye additional relief checks for coronavirus Judge puts new hold on Democrats’ lawsuit seeking Trump tax returns MA lawmakers press HHS secretary on status of state’s protective equipment MORE (D-Mass.) called the bill up under a suspension of House rules, a procedure which allows for 40 minutes of debate, no amendments, and requires a two-thirds vote for passage. The measure passed handily, 419 to 6, and was sent to the Senate.

In the Senate H.R. 748 lay dormant until Majority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellMnuchin emerges as key asset in Trump’s war against coronavirus Louisiana Republican: People upset at ‘spending porn on pet projects’ in latest stimulus bill Coronavirus pushes GOP’s Biden-Burisma probe to back burner MORE (R-Ky.) seized on the bill as the vehicle to be hijacked for the stimulus package. After two Democratic filibusters and hours of bargaining, bickering and dickering, a bipartisan agreement on McConnell’s amendment in the nature of a substitute was reached with House and Senate Democrats and the White House. The bill was then taken up on March 25 and passed unanimously, 96 to 0.

While House Speaker Nancy PelosiNancy PelosiMnuchin emerges as key asset in Trump’s war against coronavirus Graham: Pelosi comment on Trump is ‘most shameful, disgusting statement by any politician in modern history’ The coronavirus pandemic versus the climate change emergency MORE (D-Calif.) originally hoped to pass the bill by unanimous consent to spare forcing members back to the Capitol from their districts, it became apparent there was enough grumbling from both parties that a vote would be needed. Members were given a day to return to Washington.

It was still not clear whether a quorum of 216 members would materialize (there are currently five vacancies in the House). Nevertheless, on Friday morning, March 27, at 9 a.m., Majority Leader Steny HoyerSteny Hamilton HoyerDC argues it is shortchanged by coronavirus relief bill Lysol, disinfecting wipes and face masks mark coronavirus vote in House The Hill’s 12:30 Report: House to vote on .2T stimulus after mad dash to Washington MORE (D-Md.) called up by unanimous consent a special rule, coincidentally numbered H. Res. 911, that provided for a vote on a motion to concur in the Senate amendment to H.R. 748 after just three hours of debate.

Over the course of that debate dozens of members came to the floor to voice their support for the measure, most being allocated just one minute or less to speak. As is the custom, the two party leaders, Pelosi and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthyKevin Owen McCarthyMcCarthy says fourth stimulus bill might not be necessary Sunday shows preview: Lawmakers, state governors talk coronavirus, stimulus package and resources as pandemic rages on Lysol, disinfecting wipes and face masks mark coronavirus vote in House MORE (R-Calif.) gave the wrap-up speeches for as long as they wished to speak.

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Pelosi at one point turned to beckon to the galleries, where many members were encouraged to sit to maintain COVID-19 distancing guidelines. She in effect urged members watching from their offices to come now, saying the sooner they got there, the sooner she would stop talking.

Rep. Thomas MassieThomas Harold MassieSunday shows preview: Lawmakers, state governors talk coronavirus, stimulus package and resources as pandemic rages on Overnight Health Care — Presented by PCMA — US coronavirus cases hit 100,000 | Trump signs T stimulus package | Trump employs defense powers to force GM to make ventilators | New concerns over virus testing Overnight Defense: Trump signs T coronavirus relief package | What’s in it for defense | Trump uses defense powers to force GM to make ventilators | Hospital ship arrives in Los Angeles MORE (R-Ky.) had vowed to force a House vote, stating, “I came here to make sure our republic doesn’t die by unanimous consent.” When the chair put the vote on concurring in the Senate amendment and announced the motion was agreed to by voice vote, Massie asked for a recorded vote.

The chair then requested those members wanting a recorded vote to rise. Under House rules, 44 members’ support (shown by standing) is required to force a roll call vote. The chair announced that an insufficient number of members had risen, therefore a recorded vote was not ordered. Massie objected to the vote on the ground that a quorum was not present. The chair immediately announced that a quorum was indeed present (apparently having done a pre-count), and that the Senate amendment was adopted. President TrumpDonald John TrumpHealth insurers Cigna, Humana waive out-of-pocket costs for coronavirus treatment Puerto Rico needs more federal help to combat COVID-19 Fauci says April 30 extension is ‘a wise and prudent decision’ MORE signed the measure into law later that day.

The episode confirms that when our country is under serious threat from whatever source, Congress can move expeditiously to address the crisis. This is not the Schoolhouse Rock version of “I’m just a Bill.” No formal committee action was taken on the emergency bill – starting with Rep. Courtney’s minor tax bill which ballooned into the ultimate omnibus spending and tax relief bill.

It wasn’t exactly an immaculate conception. Dozens of members and staff from the relevant committees and leadership had worked tirelessly for days to put together a bill that secured widespread support. Treasury Secretary Steven MnuchinSteven Terner MnuchinTrump floats restoring full corporate tax deduction for meals as coronavirus derails restaurants Mnuchin emerges as key asset in Trump’s war against coronavirus Sunday shows – New coronavirus projections, quarantine talk dominate MORE proved a consummate dealmaker to ensure White House backing in the end. It may not be the textbook way to legislate but sometimes it’s the only way. And by the way, Courtney’s original excise tax repeal did not make the cut in the final enacted bill.

Don Wolfensberger is a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson center and Bipartisan Policy Center, former staff director of the House Rules Committee, and author of “Changing Cultures in Congress: From Fair Play to Power Plays.” The views expressed are solely his own.

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