(Bloomberg) — Like many relationships, the one between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had long rested on two simple principles for when disputes arose: deal with them behind closed doors or bite your tongue.
After the neighbors’ very public spat over future OPEC+ oil output, that’s now looking hopelessly old-fashioned and the consequences are rippling out from the Persian Gulf.
Most obviously, the tussle has left a question mark over crude supply as major nations emerge from Covid lockdowns. OPEC+ abandoned its meeting on Monday without a deal, sending oil past $77.
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But it also underlined a growing economic rivalry that’s been sharpened by the pandemic and has implications for global companies, as well as a political divergence with repercussions across the Middle East from Yemen to Israel, Iran to Qatar.
While no one’s saying ties are set to break down, the ground rules have shifted.
“More than 80% of the time, these two capitals are on the same page,” said UAE political science professor Abdulkhaleq Abdullah. “However, there is growing economic competition, it is growing deeper by the day, and we are still in the early stages of it.”
OPEC+ in Crisis as Specter of Harmful Infighting Looms Again
The trigger for the OPEC+ showdown was UAE opposition to a Saudi-led production deal. The U.S. is urging compromise. Abu Dhabi wants to re-negotiate the level from which its output cuts or increases are calculated, giving it the ability to pump more oil after spending heavily to increase capacity and strengthening ties with energy-hungry markets in Asia.
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The acrimonious rhetoric surprised everyone, said a person familiar with high-level discussions, describing it as politics spilling over into the oil talks and vice versa. Mediation made little headway, and a couple of decisions taken away from the Vienna negotiating table threatened to further poison the atmosphere.
Saudi Arabia banned flights to the UAE as talks broke down at the weekend, citing virus concerns. While the timing could be coincidental, it comes ahead of an Islamic holiday when Gulf visitors typically descend on Dubai, now reopened for tourism.
Riyadh also said it would exclude imports from free zones or linked to Israel from a preferential tariff agreement with neighboring Gulf countries, potentially dealing a blow to a key pillar of the UAE economy.
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Oil and Dollars: Why the UAE Is Risking a Falling-Out With OPEC+
The relationship between Abu Dhabi’s crown prince, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed and his Saudi counterpart, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, appears to have cooled, though, as Abu Dhabi flexes its muscles geopolitically, asserting an independent foreign policy. It normalized ties with Israel last year and drew back in 2019 from the Saudi-led coalition at war with Iran-backed fighters in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia for its part pushed its Arab allies to restore ties with Qatar to end a separate long dispute, a move the UAE was persuaded to go along with despite tensions continuing to simmer.
‘Game On’
At the same time Saudi Arabia has stepped up its ambitious campaign to supplant Dubai as the Middle East’s business capital as it prepares for life after oil. The Saudi push included an ultimatum earlier this year for foreign firms to move their regional hubs to Riyadh by 2024 or lose business.
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Saudi Ultimatum to Move In or Lose Out Unsettles Global Firms
“The Saudis have explicitly made competition with the UAE ‘game on’ across the aviation business, tourism sector, even green energy, regional headquarters, and now oil policy,” said Karen Young a senior fellow and founding director of the Program on Economics and Energy at the Washington-based Middle East Institute. Still, shared interests mean the neighbors will remain close, she said.
Recent deals indeed suggest Abu Dhabi is keen to stay on good terms with OPEC+ heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia. Its sovereign wealth fund Mubadala Investment Co., run by Khaldoon Al Mubarak, a close adviser the UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed, joined a consortium that paid $12.4 billion for a stake in a pipeline subsidiary of Saudi Aramco. It also paid about $200 million for a holding in Russia’s Eni+ Group International last month.
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Dubai’s former finance chief, Nasser Al-Shaikh, said differences over oil policy aren’t the main concern, although it’s better that they’re not aired in public.
“My fear as a Gulf citizen is that the differences move into other issues,” he said on Twitter, adding he trusted leaders to resolve the dispute.
The row also comes at a sensitive time for the region. Both of the Sunni Muslim monarchies find U.S. President Joe Biden’s drawn-out attempts to rejoin a nuclear deal with Shiite regional power Iran and world powers unsettling.
“What’s exacerbating these tensions is the UAE’s projection of regional leadership,” said a Saudi political analyst, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the topic.
“The UAE’s hyperactivity is used as a machine to project more influence in the region, and perhaps is interpreted in Saudi as trying to overshadow it,” he said. “Both states have already realized the limits of this partnership.”
The similarities between Caroline Mulroney’s eulogy for her father and Justin Trudeau’s homage to his ‘Papa’ were impossible to ignore
Published Mar 29, 2024 • Last updated 1 hour ago • 4 minute read
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There were many heartfelt tributes to former prime minister Brian Mulroney during his state funeral at Montreal’s Notre-Dame Basilica on March 23. One that caught significant attention was the eulogy by his daughter, Caroline, a cabinet minister in Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s government.
The legion of family, friends and political cohorts that day had a good laugh over a particular remark that Mulroney made. “Speeches were such a major part of his life,” she said, “that he told us that when it was his turn to go up to what he called that great political rally in the sky, he wanted us to bury him with his podium.”
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Indeed, it’s a great line — and it rings true in every fibre of its being!
That’s not what struck me about Mulroney’s speech, however. Rather, it was the passionate words, raw emotion and cadence she employed when describing her late father. She had lived in his massive (and unavoidable) shadow. His formidable presence followed her in every step she took — but in a good way. What he specifically meant to her, the family and our country was mapped out on one of the biggest stages she’ll ever encounter in her life.
So much so, that one person sitting in the Basilica — who also gave a eulogy — may have felt, if but for a fleeting moment, that he was experiencing déjà vu: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. (We’ll get to him shortly.)
“There was a destiny attached to my father, that even in his youth, no one could deny,” Mulroney said in one poignant moment. “Even prime minister (John) Diefenbaker at the peak of his powers, wrote a letter to my grandfather, extolling his son’s potential after his first encounter with my dad.”
She continued, “My dad saw the world in a bigger way than most. His humanity defined him. Which is why he transcended politics and connected with people in a way that left an indelible mark on their hearts and souls. In our grief, our family is comforted and so grateful for the universal outpouring of affection and admiration for what my father meant to them and to Canada.”
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Her concluding lines tugged at the heartstrings of one’s soul. “We are heartbroken by our loss. We adored him. I miss you daddy.”
It was a wonderful eulogy that her father — who I knew, admired and respected — would have been proud of. Words mattered to him. He loved language and prose, and mastered them to perfection. The art of writing, speaking and storytelling were gifts from God.
When I watched Mulroney speak at the state funeral of her beloved father, I was instantly reminded of Trudeau’s eulogy at the state funeral of his beloved father.
The man who would become Canada’s 23rd prime minister was a relatively unknown figure when he walked to the lectern on Oct. 4, 2000. There had been various images of him in the media, but he had largely avoided the spotlight. His father’s massive shadow and formidable presence, much like Caroline Mulroney’s father, was always there — but in a good way.
When Trudeau spoke that day, it was the biggest audience of his young life. He did extremely well. His speech was emotional, powerful and deeply personal.
“Pierre Elliott Trudeau. The very words convey so many things to so many people,” he said. “Statesman, intellectual, professor, adversary, outdoorsman, lawyer, journalist, author, prime minister. But more than anything, to me, he was dad. And what a dad. He loved us with the passion and the devotion that encompassed his life. He taught us to believe in ourselves, to stand up for ourselves, to know ourselves and to accept responsibility for ourselves. We knew we were the luckiest kids in the world. And we had done nothing to actually deserve it.”
There’s also this passage which perfectly encapsulates Trudeau’s love for his father and what he believed he did for the nation. “My father’s fundamental belief never came from a textbook. It stemmed from his deep love for and faith in all Canadians and over the past few days, with every card, every rose, every tear, every wave and every pirouette, you returned his love … He left politics in ’84, but he came back for Meech, he came back for Charlottetown, he came back to remind us of who we are and what we’re all capable of.”
And finally, this concluding sentiment. “But he won’t be coming back any more. It’s all up to us — all of us — now. The woods are lovely, dark and deep. He has kept his promises and earned his sleep. Je t’aime, Papa.”
Mulroney and Trudeau, much like their fathers, are different people with different strengths, weaknesses and political ideologies. The similarities are equally impossible to ignore. Scions of two impressive public figures. Children who walk in the giant footsteps their fathers left behind. Two impressive eulogies at different points in their lives and careers that will be remembered forever.
There’s one other similarity that could be on the horizon. Trudeau used his eulogy to springboard into the public eye, politics and leadership. Mulroney is already in the public eye and politics. She unsuccessfully ran for the Ontario PC leadership in 2019, but didn’t have the presence, confidence or speaking ability that she did during her eulogy. That moment has finally arrived, and it’s up to her to use it as wisely as Trudeau did.
Former cabinet minister is the latest Tory rebel to exit politics
Published Mar 28, 2024 • Last updated 12 hours ago • 3 minute read
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Progressive Conservative stalwart Trevor Holder, the province’s longest-serving MLA in the legislature, is bowing out of politics, becoming the latest Tory rebel to make that call ahead of the provincial election.
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In the legislature Thursday, Holder, who has served the Saint John riding of Portland-Simonds for the last 25 years and was a cabinet minister under three premiers, made the announcement, thanking all his colleagues “regardless of political stripe” who later rose in the House to give him a round of applause.
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“All I ever wanted – along with all of you – was a chance to help make (New Brunswick) better than it already is,” said Holder, who described himself as a “north-end kid” from Saint John.
Holder didn’t make himself available to the media after his announcement. He also didn’t formally resign on Thursday, sending a note out to reporters that he “won’t be back in May” but hasn’t “set the official date yet” for his resignation.
News of his exit comes less than a year after Holder resigned as the province’s minister of post-secondary education, training and labour, citing the impact of Premier Blaine Higgs’s top-down leadership style on caucus decision-making.
Holder was the second minister to resign from cabinet last June amid Tory caucus infighting over changes to the province’s gender identity policy for public school students.
Fellow Saint John MLA and Tory stalwart Dorothy Shephard was the first to resign from cabinet last summer, giving up her post as minister of social development before announcing last week she won’t reoffer in the upcoming election this fall.
Shephard also cited Higgs’s leadership style in her decision to leave cabinet.
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During his speech Thursday, Holder made a point to thank Higgs “for the conversations over the last number of days leading up to my decision here.”
Higgs later told media he didn’t know Holder’s exact plans for the future but knew the Saint John MLA had “opportunities.”
“He’s a great statesman in the legislature and certainly his care for his community is genuine,” the premier said.
When asked if he had addressed Holder’s concerns about caucus decision-making, Higgs said he thought so but acknowledged he’s “always struggled with things not getting done at a certain level of pace.”
“It’s rare if you ever come out of caucus or cabinet with unanimous decisions,” he said.
“There’s always a degree of differences, and that’s not going to change, but leadership requires real decisions and you’re not everything to everybody, so you do what you believe is right and you do with it conviction and you hope it’s just the right thing to do.”
Holder ‘a truly progressive conservative’: Coon
Both opposition leaders spoke glowingly of Holder’s commitment to provincial politics.
“He was a real asset to the legislature, he was a real pleasure to work with, so it’s a loss to see him leaving the legislative assembly,” Liberal leader Susan Holt told media Thursday.
That was echoed by Green leader David Coon.
“(Holder’s) very committed to improving our system of government and he’s made real contributions to doing so,” Coon said. “I’m sad to see him go. He’s truly a progressive conservative in the truest meaning of that term.”
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In his 16-minute speech, Holder spoke of the importance of bipartisanship, describing his relationship with former Liberal cabinet minister Victor Boudreau.
They used to “tear each other” up in the House, Holder recalled, but “when I was in opposition, (Boudreau) helped me with my constituents, and when I was in government, I did my best to do the same for him – and this is how this legislature needs to work.”
First elected at the age of 25 in June 1999, Holder has won a total of six elections over the course of his 25-year provincial political career. He’s a former minister of environment and local government, tourism and parks, wellness, culture and sport, and tourism, heritage and culture. He also served as deputy speaker.
Holder thanked his wife Brenda Thursday, along with their two daughters, Margaret and Katherine, for their support over the course of his political career.
Holder’s and Shephard’s departure announcements are the latest in a string of changes within the Tory caucus ahead of the election.
In February, fellow Saint John colleague Arlene Dunn abruptly resigned from her ministerial and MLA duties. Meanwhile, colleagues Daniel Allain, Jeff Carr and Ross Wetmore – who were part of the Tory rebels who supported a Liberal motion on Policy 713 changes – have announced they won’t reoffer in the next election.
Wetmore had announced his retirement intentions before the Policy 713 kerfuffle.
Fellow rebel Andrea Anderson-Mason, MLA for Fundy-The Isles-Saint John West, has yet to announce her plans.
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