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Population ‘moving south in droves’ creates opportunities for U.S. real estate investments



This is Globe Advisor’s weekly newsletter for professional financial advisors, published every Friday. If someone has forwarded this newsletter to you via e-mail, or you’re reading this on the web, you can register for Globe Advisor, then sign up for this newsletter and others on our newsletter sign-up page.

More investors are turning to alternative investments such as private real estate, equity and debt to help balance their portfolios.

Real estate is particularly appealing to Canadians, both at home and across the border in the U.S. Perhaps not surprisingly, Canadians made up the largest share of foreign buyers of U.S. property, or 11 per cent of purchases, from April 2021 to March 2022, followed by Mexicans, at 8 per cent, and Chinese, at 6 per cent, according to the National Association of Realtors.

For investors, real estate may not sound like a great investment today, given rising interest rates. However, some argue it’s an attractive time to buy into the asset class, particularly the lenders.


“Floating-rate assets paired with attractive characteristics can offer investors a way to mitigate inflation risk,” says Dean Kirkham, president and chief operating officer at real estate financier Trez Capital in Vancouver.

Globe Advisor spoke recently with Mr. Kirkham about how alternative assets, specifically real estate, can fit into Canadian investors’ portfolios.

What are some of the key trends you’re seeing right now in real estate?

The biggest thing we’re seeing on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border is a massive shortfall in housing due to a combination of rising immigration and more restrictive lending since the 2008 global financial crisis.

In the U.S., where we’re focused, there are two markets – the U.S. sunbelt region and the rest of the country. The population is moving south in droves. While inflation and rising interest rates are a concern, the population is still growing and may accelerate due to migration trends.

So, it’s providing a lot of opportunity in these markets that we’re not seeing in the rest of the U.S. We’re focused on investment in the southern U.S. for this reason. We feel confident in the values in this market from a lender’s perspective and the possibility of achieving higher returns on our investments – even better than what we were getting in the past.

Why are higher interest rates an opportunity for investors?

Rising interest rates have cooled the housing market, yet there’s still a lot of demand.

Developers who can get projects off the ground in this high-interest rate environment are well-positioned because of the housing shortfall. Higher rents are also making these projects more viable, creating sufficient returns for developers to launch projects and move forward. That’s where we see the opportunities.

What are you hearing from advisors on your strategy?

When it comes to alternative assets, advisors are looking for expert asset managers who have experience and understand what’s happening in a particular space, such as real estate in our case.

Many like real estate because it’s a relatively stable investment backed by strong macroeconomic trends. Advisors are also interested in achieving stable returns as part of a broader portfolio mix.

This interview has been edited and condensed.

– Brenda Bouw, Globe Advisor reporter

Must-reads from Globe Advisor this week

How to manage the mindset around debt as the cost of borrowing increases

In a persistently low-interest rate environment, the often painful consequences of taking on debt are minimized. Borrowing money during the past 14 years or so has felt almost free, leading borrowers to assume that their rates will stay low and debt payments will remain the same. However, during the past year, interest rates have risen faster than in any other one-year period during the past 30 years. While this sharp increase has affected most asset classes negatively, many people are feeling the pain most acutely when it comes to managing debt. Alexandra Horwood of Richardson Wealth Ltd. gives tips on how to manage debt to reach financial goals.

Why second marriages require a more robust review of estate plans

With one in four adult Canadians getting married for a second time in their lives, according to recent Statistics Canada data, developing an estate plan that works for their new circumstances is becoming more crucial to protect their individual assets, trust and estate, experts say. That’s especially important if both partners have children from their first marriage. While some may want to set up a marriage contract in advance, others may want to take care of their affairs later with an estate lawyer. Deanne Gage looks at why second-marriage couples should set up a mutual estate planning agreement separate from their wills.

How Canada’s immigration goal will drive the growth of residential REITs

Canada’s goal of attracting 1.5 million immigrants during the next three years is acting as a powerful catalyst for the real estate investment trusts that own apartments and multi-family rental accommodations. Although interest rate increases during the past year have battered the sector, analysts say the panic selling was overdone and the future is bright given that demand for affordable housing is already far greater than the supply. The wave of immigration is intensifying the shortages, they add. Adam Mayers gives an outlook for the sector and explores where opportunities exist.

Why this money manager is betting on global food and entertainment giants

While some investors believe a sharp economic downtown is on the horizon, money manager Christine Poole sees some moderating factors that could lessen the pain. “I’m not in the camp of a ‘hard landing’ at this point, unless we have some black swan event,” says the chief executive officer and managing director of Toronto-based GlobeInvest Capital Management Inc., who oversees about $265-million in assets. One stock she’s been adding is Mondelez International Inc. MDLZ-Q, the global snack food company. Brenda Bouw speaks to her about what she’s buying and selling.

Also see:

What makes for a comprehensive estate plan?

Why health care is becoming a growing part of more advisors’ practices

This 85-year-old who’s written several books in retirement relishes being ‘in charge’ of her time

Wall Street titans confront ESG backlash as new financial risk

Over US$1-trillion of risky U.S. loans still shackled to LIBOR as deadline looms

What you and your clients need to know

Mutual fund managers that stand out in prioritizing investor interests

When looking for a mutual fund to hold for the long term, investors commonly consider things such as historical performance (on an absolute basis and in comparison to category peers) as well as fees. Equally important, though, and often overlooked, is having an understanding of the firm that manages the mutual fund, also known as the asset manager. How a firm operates and the way in which decisions are made can affect areas including capacity and risk management, recruitment and retention of key personnel, investment professional compensation, and pricing schemes. Weaknesses and strengths in these areas can affect the longevity of investments. Danielle LeClair of Morningstar Research Inc. looks at top-rated mutual funds from top-rated managers.

Remote work is hurting productivity and innovation, says RBC CEO

The stunted pace of workers returning to the office is taking a notch out of productivity and innovation, Royal Bank of Canada chief executive officer Dave McKay says. The head of Canada’s largest lender made the comments during a conference call to discuss the bank’s first-quarter earnings. While some employers in Canada have mandated that staff work at offices more often, corporate leaders have grappled with employees resisting calls for teams to return to the workplace. “All CEOs in every sector I talk to are struggling with a balance of developing talent, promoting talent, building culture, creating productivity. It’s tough, we don’t have the final model yet,” says Mr. McKay. Stefanie Marotta reports on what the bank is doing.

The government should include a capital gains tax exemption for employee ownership trusts

Seventy-six per cent. That’s the number of Canadian business owners who anticipate retiring in the next decade and must now explore what’s next for their company. With the federal budget just around the corner, the government is in a unique position to help these owners protect their businesses, look after their workers and preserve their legacies with the implementation of employee ownership trusts, in which businesses are essentially sold to staff. As a supporter of the newly formed Canadian Employee Ownership Coalition, and in light of the proven benefits to society of employee ownership, Tony Loffreda urges the government to give serious consideration to include a capital gains tax exemption for business owners in its trust model.

– Globe Advisor Staff

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2 real estate agents fired over their 'you could do worse' ad campaign double down on their brand –



A pair of real estate agents in London, Ont., who were fired from a realty firm for taking their advertising campaign, “You could do worse,” to billboards and social media have doubled down on their mantra.

Tristan Squire-Smith, 42, and Johnny Hewerdine, 43, were fired in December from a real estate business they don’t want to publicly name, but were quickly snapped up by the Realty Firm. CBC News has seen a copy of their termination letter, which cites “professional differences.”

We might not be for everybody, but the people who like us, really love us.– Tristan Squire-Smith, real estate agent

“They fired us for excessively using the phrase, ‘You could do worse,'” said Hewerdine, a Realty Firm broker who previously worked as an electrician. ‘We just stuck with it and actually doubled down on it, and now it’s just completely taken off.”


The mantra is polarizing, Hewerdine admitted.

But the two say they’re working to humanize the industry.

“It’s a great sort of self-deprecating phrase that means you’re actually not doing too bad,” said Squire-Smith, a registered nurse who retrained as a real estate agent during the pandemic and still works part time in long-term care. 

“We might not be for everybody, but the people who like us really love us,” he said.

Randy Pawlowski, past president of the London St. Thomas Association of Realtors, wouldn’t comment directly on the billboard or the slogan, but told CBC that he stands for professionalism in the industry.

‘Zero awards won’

The latest billboard by Squire-Smith and Hewerdine is up on Wharncliffe Road, a busy thoroughfare in London, and features photographs of them as teenagers. Squire-Smith has long curly blond hair and Hewerdine is wearing his graduation robes from his Grade 8 portrait. Another one of their billboards proudly proclaims, “Zero awards won! (No fine print required).”

Johnny Hewerdine and Tristan Squire-Smith pose in front of their newly minted billboard on Wharncliffe Road in London, Ont.
Hewerdine and Squire-Smith pose in front of their newly minted billboard on Wharncliffe Road in London. (Submitted by Johnny Hewerdine)

The two men met two decades ago and were on the varsity swim team together at Western University.

“These photos are taken at our most awkward moment of our lives,” said Hewerdine. “I’m a 13-year-old Grade 8 graduate in this photo and I believe Tristan is 15 years old.”

Both say they’re trying to humanize the industry.

“We’re just really focusing on the consumer, opposed to us standing up on a billboard with arms crossed, trying to make us look perfect,” said Hewerdine.

Tristan Squire-Smith and Johnny Hewerdine have more conventional photos too, but say they enjoy using videos and photos that are a bit more 'human.'
Squire-Smith and Hewerdine have more conventional photos too, but say that for their work, they enjoy using videos and photos that are a bit more ‘human.’ (Submitted by Squire-Smith and Hewerdine)

“They’re total professionals,” said Pete Greenwood, who hired Hewerdine to sell his condo earlier this month. It was listed for $389,900 and sold for $400,000 in five days.

“He’s just a good guy to work with, and so’s Tristan,” said Greenwood. “They did a 30-second video of my house and turns out we’re all big Seinfeld fans, so we actually did a Seinfeld-themed video of my house.

“I never laughed so hard in my life,” he said.

London Morning7:11What’s behind the billboard with the slogan ‘you could do worse’?

London Morning host Rebecca Zandbergen gets to the bottom of a fresh billboard with an odd advertising slogan. Real estate agents Tristan Squire-Smith and Johnny Hewerdine explain how they were going for something out of the ordinary.

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Cottage housing market to see price decline: Royal LePage – CTV News



A recent report from Royal LePage is predicting a drop in prices for Canadian cabins and cottages this year as demand softens from economic uncertainty and low housing stock.

The Royal LePage Recreational Property Report, released on Tuesday, expects the aggregate price of a single-family home in Canada’s recreational housing market to fall 4.5 per cent this year to $592,005 compared to 2022.

Royal LePage’s aggregate home price is based on median prices, including for single-family, single-family waterfront and standard condominium homes.


“Despite a modest decrease expected this year, the national aggregate price would remain more than 32 per cent above 2020 levels, after two years of double-digit price gains in the country’s recreational real estate market,” the report says.

While Quebec and Ontario should see the largest price decreases year-over-year at eight and five per cent respectively, the report offers a hopeful outlook for Alberta.

The province is expected to be the only region in the country where recreational housing prices will increase this year at 0.5 per cent.

This all comes after the aggregate price rose 11.7 per cent year-over-year to $619,900 in 2022, the report says. In 2021, prices rose 26.6 per cent year-over-year.

“After two years of relentless year-round competition, Canada’s recreational property markets have slowed and returned to traditional seasonal sales patterns,” Royal LePage president and CEO Phil Soper is quoted saying in the report.

Soper says interest rate increases have less of an impact on recreational homes, given buyers tend to put more money down and borrow less. Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada announced it would be holding interest rates at 4.5 per cent after continuous increases since March 2022.

However, general consumer inflation and lack of inventory have “damped sales activity,” while recreational homebuyers tend to have the “benefit of time” to find the right property, he says. “Call it a want versus a need.”


An online survey of 202 Royal LePage recreational real estate brokers and sales representatives, conducted between March 1 and March 18, found 57 per cent are reporting lower inventory than last year.

Compared to pre-pandemic times, even more – 65 per cent – say inventory is lower.

“While low inventory poses a challenge for buyers looking for that special cabin or lakeside cottage, the coinciding contraction in demand has resulted in a return to more normal market conditions,” the report says.

The same survey also looked at cases where people moved and lived full-time at their recreational property during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Twenty-eight per cent of those surveyed said the trend of people now moving back to urban or suburban areas after relocating has become “somewhat common.”

However, 56 per cent described it as uncommon in their markets.

Those surveyed in Atlantic Canada were the most likely at 46 per cent to say this trend has become somewhat common.

“During the pandemic, with offices closed and people working from home, Canadians discovered that a recreational property could double as a principal residence, complete with capital gains exempt status,” Soper said.

“With high-speed internet now readily available in many rural markets, families flocked to recreational regions to put extra space between themselves and their neighbours and to take advantage of nature; particularly when cultural and sporting venues, shops and restaurants in cities were closed.

“Many urban businesses now require employees to be in the office at least a few days a week, making long commutes challenging. For many, living in cottage country full-time has lost its romantic shine, meaning we are back to viewing the cottage, cabin and chalet as a weekend and summer escape from urban living.”


The Royal LePage Recreational Property Report compiles insights, data and forecasts from 50 markets. Median price data was compiled and analyzed by Royal LePage for the period between Jan. 1, 2022, and Dec. 31, 2022, and Jan. 1, 2021, and Dec. 31, 2021. Data was sourced through local brokerages and boards in each of the surveyed regions. Royal LePage’s aggregate home price is based on a weighted model using median prices. Data availability is based on a transactional threshold and whether regional data is available using the report’s standard housing types. Aggregate prices may change from previous reports due to a change in the number of participating regions.

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For resort town workers, housing scarcity is worsening



Max Martin outside of the home he rents in Jasper, Alta., on March 19.Peggy Plato/The Globe and Mail

For more than seven decades, housing availability in the mountain town of Jasper, Alta., has been a challenge.

Although the total number of dwellings is slowly growing, in the past 10 years, the rental units in the primary market – units built specifically as rental – has declined as some units have transitioned into condo ownership. The shortfall in the number of dwellings needed to meet demand in Jasper has gone from 235 units in 2002 to roughly 700 in 2022.

“In Jasper, housing has always been in short supply,” says the town’s mayor, Richard Ireland. “Over the years, efforts have been made to correct that, but the problem seems to just continue regardless of all the steps that have been taken.”

These steps have consisted in asking Parks Canada to release land for the construction of both market and non-market, or subsidized and co-op housing.


Located on a national park, Jasper’s town boundary is constrained by Parks Canada’s regulations to limit the townsite’s physical expansion and protect the environment.

To ensure the town’s population remains in balance with the 118,222 square metres of developable land allocated to Jasper, Parks Canada requires that only those who work or run a business are eligible to live there – and releases parcels as needed.

“We’ve been able to get housing that’s more affordable and stays that way,” Mr. Ireland says. “But even with all the units that have been built, the pressure continues.”

In the face of skyrocketing visitor numbers, the need for more staff in Jasper is growing, and the availability of well-maintained, affordable housing for workers in Canada’s second most popular national park seems to be reaching a breaking point.

Since 2014, vacancy rates in Jasper’s primary rental market have remained close to zero, driving rents up by 30 per cent over the same period.

Christine Reyes (whose name has been changed to protect her identity) and her boyfriend share a one-bedroom apartment in Cavell Apartments, the town’s first purpose-built rental complex developed to provide staff accommodation in the 1970s.

Originally from the Philippines, Ms. Reyes moved to Cavell Apartments in the fall of 2021. Since then, the couple’s rent has gone up by 20 per cent – from $1,075 to $1,270 – and further increases are expected in 2023.

“What we’re paying now is just enough for us to make [ends meet],” Ms. Reyes says, noting she pays an additional $185 a month in parking, storage and pet fees. “I have family back home that I’m sending money to. I don’t think I could send money if rent [goes] up.”

In February, some tenants of Cavell Apartments received a letter from property management, informing them rents would be rising by about 40 per cent this year. The notice cites inflation, interest rates, as well as supply and demand as the drivers of such an increase.

While the proposed hike for existing tenants has been reconsidered, a bachelor suite in the complex was listed in March for a monthly rent of $1,604.50 – a rate akin to downtown Vancouver’s average rent for the same type of unit.

The property management company did not respond to requests for comment.

In a town where a significant share of renters are employed in the tourism industry, and whose hourly wage averages $18.36 (roughly $1.80 less than in B.C.), spending more than $900 a month in rent isn’t a viable option.

For local businesses, this challenge means they have to step in and absorb some of the cost of housing on behalf of their staff.

To ensure she can hire full-time staff year-round, Lynn Wannop, owner of Coco’s Café, has rented a two-bedroom unit in Cavell Apartments for nearly a decade. “That apartment makes it so that I can hold on to staff in the winter, when it’s really slow,” she explains.

Currently, she pays $1,225 a month in rent for the unit, and charges her staff $500 to live there. But in the face of the proposed increases, she wouldn’t have a choice but to continue to pay whatever rate the landlords ask. “As a business owner I have to suck it up and pay,” Ms. Wannop says. “I can’t operate my business without it.”

But spending more in staff housing costs means Ms. Wannop can’t raise wages either.

“I want my staff to be able to afford to live,” she says. “But I can’t afford to pay them any more.”

Moreover, Jasper’s housing shortfall doesn’t only drive rents up – it also creates challenges for tenants who end up living in sub-par accommodations for a lack of alternatives within their budget.

Since November, Max Martin and four friends have shared a five-bedroom, two-bathroom bungalow in the middle of town. While the group pay what they consider a reasonable amount in rent, the condition of the home is precarious.

Max Martin in an unusable, mould-filled bathroom in the home he rents with four friends.The Globe and Mail

“We have mould that [the landlords] have refused to come help fix,” Mr. Martin says, adding that “we went without heating for almost seven weeks.”

According to recent inspection reports from Alberta Health Services and the Jasper Fire Department, the dwelling presents critical safety issues, including windows that don’t open, exterior doors that can’t be locked for a lack of keys, faulty heating, and no smoke alarms.

In Mr. Martin’s view, Jasper’s tight rental market allows landlords to take advantage of young workers who, like him, come from overseas attracted by the natural beauty of the Rocky Mountains.

“People should be held accountable for their actions and the choices they make,” Mr. Martin says. “Especially when it comes to other people’s lives. As a landlord you’re in a privileged position where you can have a house that provides you passive income to let live and do what you want.”

But more supply is on the way.

Last December, a new purpose-built rental complex finally received a development permit, six years after the project was first announced. However, a building permit application is yet to be received by Parks Canada (the developer has until Dec. 13 to apply for this permit).

Featuring 144,822 square feet of apartments spread between two buildings, this development is expected to make a dent on Jasper’s housing gap when completed – but it’s unlikely that new market units can support the affordability levels required by tourism and hospitality staff.

Because market housing is subject to speculation and financialization, providing rental housing at rates commensurate to the wages of workers isn’t always possible, as returns for shareholders take priority.

“This model prays on power imbalances and problems that were already in place,” says Laura Murphy, research coordinator at the University of Alberta’s Affordable Housing Solutions Lab. “Especially in Alberta, where tenants are really dependent on landlords … because we don’t have lot of protections for tenants.”

In Alberta there are no limits to how much landlords can hike rents, as long as these increase only once a year.

To address this, Ms. Murphy suggests governments invest in non-market housing, as this “has proven to work time and time and again.”

Currently, there are about 155 non-market units in Jasper, but only 21 of them are rentals – and the landlord’s agreement with the municipality to provide housing at below market rates in the latter ends in 2029.

Like anywhere else in Canada, to boost the supply of suitable housing that remains affordable in perpetuity, Jasper requires support from senior levels of government.

“[In] 2023, council has budgeted a $5-million debenture to assist housing, but we will need some other partners to do that,” Mr. Ireland says. “We now need matching funds from either the province or the feds. We’ve gone to the province and made that application, so we will see what comes of that.”

On March 22, the municipality announced it would receive $6.5-million from the provincial and federal governments.

Combined with private investment, this new funding is expected to create 40 affordable units.



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