When the Bank of Canada held its interest rate steady last week it acknowledged the economy was slowing.
But by how much? The public mostly hears headline economic numbers, but when you look through the lens of population growth an even bleaker picture comes into focus.
A recent report by Desjardins argues that the population boom is masking the full extent of Canada’s economic gloom.
The newcomers, who bought cars and home furnishings as they settled in, boosted the economy so that it appeared to “defy the gravitational pull of high interest rates,” he said.
When measured on a per capita basis, however, real gross domestic product has fallen in each of the past four quarters and growth in domestic demand has fared even worse, he said.
Much of the weakness is due to a drop in interest-rate-sensitive sectors like housing, but consumption of non-durable goods like gas and food, and investment in machinery and equipment have also declined on a per capita basis.
Also, the lack of business investment in Canada is alarming, said Bartlett.
An unprecedented number of the newcomers are non-permanent residents, including temporary workers who came to Canada to fill specific labour shortages.
“Instead of investing in productivity-enhancing technology, it appears that businesses have been addressing labour shortages with temporary foreign labour,” he said. This has increased hours worked but lowered productivity.
“Looking ahead, souring sentiment suggests business investment isn’t likely to pick up anytime soon,” said Bartlett.
The Bank of Canada’s latest Business Outlook Survey showed investment intentions for companies outside of natural resources sectors were the lowest since 2020.
And “flagging consumer confidence portends a similar fate for household consumption,” he said.
Meanwhile in the United States the economy grew by over 2 per cent in the second quarter, while Canada’s economy contracted, showing “the divergence between the two economies,” said economists at BMO Capital Markets.
They now think that Canada’s landing will be “a bit bumpier,” and have cut their estimates for 2023 GDP growth to 1.1 per cent and 0.6 per cent next year, both lower than their forecasts for the United States.
There are several reasons why Canada’s economy is lagging the U.S., “notably in per-capita terms,” said BMO senior economist Sal Guatieri — and one of them is that while labour productivity is rising in the U.S. it continues to fall in Canada.
One thing the slumping economy may do is keep the Bank of Canada on the sidelines. BMO expects no change in the 5 per cent policy rate until late next spring, when the Bank will gradually begin to cut rates.
When the Bank of Canada paused interest rate hikes earlier this year it put a spring in the step of Toronto’s housing market. But don’t look for that same bounce after this latest pause, says BMO Capital Markets senior economist Robert Kavcic, because this time “the headwinds are stiffer.”
The market has seen a surge in new listings, there are signs the job market is weakening, and mortgage rates are climbed higher. Kavcic said the lowest fixed-rate mortgage available is now about 100 basis points higher than the best option offered during the spring bounce.
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Warren Buffet became the world’s most famous investor by focusing on intrinsic value and free cash flow, which he calls owner’s income.
This approach, though, has fallen out of fashion as low interest rates since 2008 have allowed what would normally be uneconomic businesses to receive cheap funding.
But things are changing, argues investing pro Martin Pelletier, and now there couldn’t be a better time for a return to the basics. 
Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.
Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.
Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.
Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.
Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.
Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).
Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.
June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.
Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”
Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.
July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.
Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.
Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.
The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.
“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.
“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”
Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.
The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.
The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.
Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.
More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.
Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.
“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.
Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.
“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.
Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.
Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.
Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”
“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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