Posthaste: How analysts say Canada could wipe out the CO2 emissions of its entire economy – Financial Post

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Canada’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have been laudable, but there is a way we could do so much more, says a report from National Bank of Canada.

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So far efforts have been largely focused within our boundaries, but considering that Canada is responsible for less than 1.5 per cent of global emissions, these efforts could be for naught because other countries are increasing emissions by a far greater magnitude, says analyst Baltej Sidhu and associate Anh Le in the report.

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“Emissions are global, they are not bound by geographical boundaries, as such, we proposed to reopen the conversation with a global tilt,” they said.

Canada once said that there was no business case for meaningful increases in LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports to support Germany and Japan, but National analysts hope India could be a different story.

The world’s most populous country is facing an enormous energy challenge as it attempts to modernize its economy and meet the needs of a population that is growing by more than 12 million a year.

India recently announced plans to double its coal production by 2030, which National estimates would increase its power sector emissions from coal to roughly the equivalent of Canada’s entire greenhouse gas emissions in 2021.

And emissions aren’t the only problem. India’s thermal power plants are estimated to consume 20-25 billion cubic metres of water a year, more than 50 per cent of the domestic requirements of a country already struggling with water scarcity.

National says there is a better way even if it means supplying India with a fossil fuel alternative.

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“According to our latest calculations, we estimate that partially replacing India’s coal-fired power generation with Canadian LNG would have a more profound impact on the planet than shutting down the Canadian economy entirely,” said Sidhu and economist Stéfane Marion.

Assuming that 88 gigawatts of coal-fired generation comes online in India by 2032 as announced, replacing coal with Canadian natural gas would reduce emissions by 2.4 times the total emissions of Canada’s economy. The natural gas need to do that would represent 66 per cent of Canada’s current production.

If you assume that India’s doubling of coal production leads to a doubling of coal-fired generating capacity by 2030, displacing it with natural gas would cut CO2 by 3.5 times the output of Canada’s economy and require 1.5 times Canada’s natural gas production.

“If our policymakers are serious about limiting the impacts of global warming and promoting economic reconciliation with our First Nations, there is a compelling and pragmatic business case for Canada to help the planet by working with India to limit its carbon emissions, given that renewable energies will not be easily deployed there by 2030,” said Sidhu and Marion.

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Canada’s budgetary deficit ballooned in the first nine months of the fiscal year, data out Friday revealed.

The federal government posted a deficit of $23.6 billion from April to December in the 2023-24 fiscal year. That compares with a deficit of $5.5 billion for the same stretch of last year.

Government revenues were up, totalling $318.1 billion, compared to $310.0 billion a year earlier.

But so were program expenses. These hit $301 billion for the nine months, up from $282.4 billion a year earlier, with increases across all the major categories of spending.

Public debt charges also rose to $35.1 billion, up from $25.8 billion in the year before.

• Cargojet Inc. will report its fourth-quarter results and hold a conference call with investors before markets open today. The report comes after a slide in consumer spending squeezed the air cargo company’s bottom line in its third quarter.
• Today’s Data: U.S. new home sales data
• Earnings: Ivanhoe Mines Ltd

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McLister on Mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Read them here 

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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