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Posthaste: Interest rates aren’t affecting Canada’s love affair with real estate like they used to – Financial Post

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Good Morning!

Today’s data on Canada’s biggest housing market saw benchmark prices shoot up 8.7% from the January before, the biggest jump in more than two years. Toronto sales also rose 15.4% from last year, the 10th straight advance. Active listings fell 35%, pointing to a tightening market, said BMO senior economist Sarah Howcroft in a morning note.

“It bears repeating that ongoing housing market strength will be front of mind for the Bank of Canada in any policy easing considerations,” she said.

But should it? The Bank of Canada has raised concerns about “housing froth”, suggesting a rate cut would further fuel the escalation.

Yet TD Economics argues in a recent report that a Bank of Canada cut would benefit the economy’s growth, while its influence on the housing risk is limited.

“The Bank of Canada doesn’t want to further stoke this fire via rate cuts that could encourage home buying behaviour. But the unfortunate truth if that it probably can’t do much to manage this market,” TD economists Beata Caranci and James Orlando said in the report.

The rebound in the housing market has happened despite the Bank holding rates at a higher level than in the United States, and supply and demand is driving the market now. Canada’s population growth is two to three times higher than peer economies, and most of the newcomers settle in or around a handful of cities, TD said. In Canada, 60% of the population lives within 200 kilometres of just five cities.

Record supply of housing is underway, but still playing catchup. TD says interest rates are not likely the catalyst anymore, especially because of tighter mortgage rules.

Canadians have a love affair with homes, TD said. Because they were spared the carnage of the U.S. housing crash in 2008, Canadians also love investing in real estate. Over the past 10 years, the average sale price of a Canadian home has averaged a compound annual return of 4.6%, compared with 4.3% in the U.S., says TD. Toronto and Vancouver are even higher, with returns of 7.5% and 5.2% respectively. Compare those to the returns of the 10-year Canadian government bond at 3.7% annually and the S&P TSX Composite at 6.9%. The numbers “drive home the point that the last 10 years have offered good returns for financial assets.”

TD warns that it might not always be that way. There are real risks that if Canada entered recession, the levered gains would become levered losses. Financial stress is already becoming apparent in rise of insolvencies, which were related to Bank of Canada hikes starting in 2017.

“An interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada would influence an easing in financial conditions in the consumer loan market,” said the report.

TD says the Bank should continue to raise awareness of financial risks, but government and regulators need to address the housing market.

“The interest rate lever should be pulled to protect broader economic growth and domestic sentiment at earliest signs of a wobbling,” TD said.

Here’s what you need to know this morning:

Canada’s trade deficit shrank to one of the smallest in recent years, data showed yesterday. The December gap fell to $370 million, down from the revised deficit of $1.2 billion in November and smaller than economists’ estimates. But in this case, slimmer is not much better, according to CIBC economist Andrew Grantham. The rebound in exports from the disruption in November of a pipeline rupture and a rail strike was not as robust as CIBC economists expected, he said. Exports gains were mostly driven by oil. Excluding energy, exports were only up 0.3%. and exports of manufactured products were down. “Even with the slightly slimmer than expected headline print, today’s trade data will do little to inspire confidence in the underlying trend within the Canadian economy,” Grantham wrote. “The lack of progress in non-energy exports, even with expected boost from the rail strike ending is a somewhat disappointing first signal for December GDP.”

— Please send your news, comments and stories to pheaven@postmedia.com. — Pamela Heaven @pamheaven

With files from The Canadian Press, Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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