Real estate investors are drawing back from Canada’s biggest city as high interest rates, construction costs and remote work take a deeper toll.
Commercial real estate investment in the Greater Toronto Area dropped 27 per cent in the second quarter of this year, down more than $2.5 billion from the year before, according to the latest report from CRE intelligence firm Altus Group.
The plight of office real estate since the pandemic is well known. In a recent report McKinsey Global Institute predicted that remote work could wipe US$800 billion from the value of office buildings in the world’s major cities.
Globally office attendance still is 30 per cent lower than what it was before the pandemic and McKinsey expects demand for office space to sink 13 per cent by the end of the decade.
The return-to-office has also stalled in Canada, said Altus.
The national office availability rate climbed to 18 per cent in the second quarter and hit 18.5 per cent in the GTA, the third highest in Canada after Calgary and Edmonton.
Sublet space rose to almost 25 per cent of the total available office space, up four per cent from the year before.
But interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, a shortage of skilled labour and rising construction costs are also taking a toll on residential investment, which fell 44 per cent from the year before.
“However, investors are optimistic as the constrained supply of rental housing and the high cost of housing in the market supports asset fundamentals,” Altus said.
The only sector that’s growing is industrial, where investment rose 36 per cent from last year to $3.39 billion.
“Rising interest rates and construction costs have not deterred investment and new supply as the GTA remains undersupplied relative to the demand,” said Altus.
But even this star is showing signs of strain.
Altus said investors are turning to the lower risks and stable returns of industrial real estate, but remain cautious as the availability rate rose to 2.3 per cent from 1.3 per cent the year before.
About three million square feet of new supply entered the GTA market in the second quarter of 2023, but unlike previous quarters a “significant portion” of it was not pre-leased, says the report.
Nor does Altus see a quick end to Toronto’s decline in real estate investment. The slowdown in the first half of 2023 is likely to continue for the rest of the year because of high interest rates and a growing gap between what sellers are asking and what buyers want to pay.
“Given the current difficulties in the office and some parts of the retail market, industrial and residential real estate will continue to be favoured asset classes in the GTA market.”
Those in political power along with equity market participants seem to think the war on inflation has already been won, but investing pro Martin Pelletier says it may be too soon to declare victory.
Betting one’s portfolio on an outright win over rising prices in the near term could be a dangerous proposition, so Pelletier offers ways to take out a bit of insurance in the event that the war on inflation drags on longer than many expect.
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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.
The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was little changed in late-morning trading as the financial sector fell, but energy and base metal stocks moved higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.05 of a point at 24,224.95.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 94.31 points at 42,417.69. The S&P 500 index was down 10.91 points at 5,781.13, while the Nasdaq composite was down 29.59 points at 18,262.03.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.71 cents US compared with 73.05 cents US on Wednesday.
The November crude oil contract was up US$1.69 at US$74.93 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up a penny at US$2.67 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$14.70 at US$2,640.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up two cents at US$4.42 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 10, 2024.
Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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