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Powell opens door to Fed rate cut on 'evolving' risks from virus – BNNBloomberg.ca

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the coronavirus “poses evolving risks” to the U.S. economy and signaled the central bank is prepared to cut interest rates if necessary to sustain the country’s longest-ever expansion.

The rare statement issued Friday by Powell before the financial markets closed for the U.S. weekend came as stocks posted their seventh-straight daily loss, a slump which earlier prompted a string of Wall Street banks to predict the Fed would start reducing rates at its meeting next month, if not sooner.

Yields on U.S. Treasury securities, one of the world’s safest assets, this week fell to record lows as investors turned increasingly concerned that the deadly virus would damage U.S. and global economic growth.

“The fundamentals of the U.S. economy remain strong,” Powell said in the four-sentence statement Friday. “However, the coronavirus poses evolving risks to economic activity. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring developments and their implications for the economic outlook. We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy.”

The missive recalls previous instances when the Fed changed course or had to address a budding crisis. When credit markets began to seize up in August 2007, the central bank issued a statement saying it was “prepared to act as needed.” Just last June, Powell said the Fed would “act as appropriate” to sustain the expansion.

The Fed cut rates at its meetings in July, September and October, but has since been on hold and indicated it planned to be so long as there was no “material change” to the outlook. The virus may now deliver such a shift in the economy amid mounting concern it’s already hurt the Chinese economy and now threatens to damage supply chains, demand, tourism and trade elsewhere.

The S&P 500 pared losses after the statement was remained lower for the day, closing down 0.8 per cent on Friday and 11.5 per cent lower over the week, the largest drop since 2008.

‘Squarely on the Table’

Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, said Powell has put an interest-rate cut “squarely on the table” for when the Federal Open Market Committee meets March 17-18 in Washington.

“This is a step in the right direction to help calm some of the concerns,” he said. “This is important in that they’re saying they’re not going to be stubborn here.”

Fed officials spent the week pushing back somewhat on the need for emergency rate cuts, saying there was too much uncertainty about the virus’s economic impact despite its spread from China. There is also doubt over what lower rates would achieve given they may not prompt consumers or companies to spend if they’re uncertain about the future or scared for their health.

But stocks kept sliding and economists started slicing their forecasts for the U.S. economy. Some started to warn of the weakest global expansion in a decade as the impact of the virus outbreak rippled from China to Europe and the Americas.

“I hope the Fed gets involved and I hope they get involved soon,” President Donald Trump, who’s repeatedly pressured the Fed to cut rates, told reporters later on Friday.

The debate now is whether central bankers will wait until their March meeting or act quicker, as well as the size of a potential move.

Buys Time

“The statement buys some time with the caveat that they follow through with a rate cut,” said Derek Tang, an economist at LH Meyer/Monetary Policy Analytics in Washington. “The question is, will it buy them enough time to reach mid-March? That is less clear.”

The statement released Friday was from Powell, not the full Fed Board nor from the FOMC, which has the ultimate say on rate moves in normal circumstances.

U.S. data are published with too much of a delay to make a strong case for a Fed move based on current economic reports. But officials could look at the crashing markets, fall in private-sector forecasts, earnings warnings by companies and the rise in the dollar to argue the virus has delivered a shock to demand that could slow inflation at a time when they are already striving to hit their 2 per cent target.

Demand Shock

“Financial markets are suggesting that a very substantial demand shock is under way,” said Laura Rosner, a senior economist and partner at MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC, which sees cuts in March and April. “We are starting at a low base of inflation, so that certainly helps make the case as well.”

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists said Friday they now expect the coronavirus to inflict a “short-lived global contraction” on the world economy that forces the Fed to slash interest rates by 75 basis points over the first half of this year. Bank of America Corp. forecast a half-point cut at the Fed’s March meeting to “stem the panic in markets.”

“While the statement is surely intended to calm markets and bridge to the scheduled March meeting it would allow the Fed to move earlier on an intermeeting basis if necessary,” said Krishna Guha, vice chairman at Evercore ISI in Washington.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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