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‘Pressing need’ for Bank of Canada to raise interest rates amid inflation surge – Global News

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The likelihood of an interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada next week is growing as record levels of inflation and high housing prices coincide with an anticipated economic rebound from the Omicron wave of the pandemic, some economists say.

Scotiabank Economics said in a note to investors Wednesday that it expects the Bank of Canada to raise its key overnight rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 per cent at its next meeting Jan 26.

This would be the first of multiple interest rate hikes over the course of the year, senior economist Jean-Francois Perrault forecasts, with rates hitting two per cent by the end of 2022.

While the Bank of Canada signalled at the end of last year that interest rate increases were likely for 2022, it had pegged possible hikes towards the middle of the year.

Read more:

Will the Bank of Canada hike interest rates next week? More investors saying yes

But Perrault said in his note that the central bank could be forced to act sooner than anticipated after Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday that the annual rate of inflation hit 4.8 per cent in December — the highest level in 30 years.

“Despite a clear, but temporary, negative impact of Omicron on economic activity, it is clear that inflationary pressures are larger than earlier assessed and require a more robust monetary policy response,” he wrote.

A ‘pressing need’ for higher rates

James Orlando, a senior economist with TD Economics, told Global News in an interview that conditions are right for an interest rate hike in the near future.

“The Bank of Canada is in a position right now where inflation is at this uncomfortable level, where the economy is hot, where we’re likely going to bounce back strongly from this Omicron time period,” he said.

“There really is a pressing need for the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates.”


Click to play video: 'O’Toole takes aim at Canada’s economic update, rising inflation costs'



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O’Toole takes aim at Canada’s economic update, rising inflation costs


O’Toole takes aim at Canada’s economic update, rising inflation costs – Dec 14, 2021

Orlando also believes the hike will start with 25 basis points, noting that after nearly two years of rock-bottom interest rates tied to the pandemic, the central bank won’t “want to shock people.”

Though markets have built in an interest rate hike on Jan. 26, Orlando says there is a possibility the bank will hold off until its March announcement to wait for the Omicron wave to recede and see how businesses bounce back.

“But with everyone expecting it, the question for the Bank of Canada is, why should they wait?” he asks.

Stephen Tapp, senior economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, agrees.

“My expectation is that, certainly, a rate hike is on the table next Wednesday,” he tells Global News.

He and Orlando said the Bank of Canada would be able to tie an interest rate hike to a monetary policy report due out the same day. Both noted the increase could wait until the March decision if the governors are feeling skittish about the Omicron recovery, but a warning of a looming increase would at least be in the cards for next week.

Tapp says inflation is having a two-pronged effect on businesses right now. Not only are their costs rising due to more expensive goods, but an anticipated need to increase wages in 2022 to cover inflationary pressures will continue to affect their bottom lines.

Read more:

Businesses indirectly hit in lockdowns slipping through cracks of COVID supports

Can the Bank of Canada solve the ‘inflation puzzle?’

While the central bank might be feeling the pressure to raise interest rates to dampen inflation, some of the causes of surging prices could well be out of its hands.

“There is little that the Bank of Canada can do to address the biggest part of the inflation puzzle, and that is the pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions,” says Tu Nguyen, economist with accounting firm RSM Canada.

Nguyen and most other economists who spoke to Global News this week said inflation could remain around the five per cent mark for the next few months but eventually come back down toward three per cent by the end of the year, closer to the upper bound of the Bank of Canada’s targeted range.

Also putting pressure on the Bank of Canada to act are record high housing prices.

Orlando says that Canada could see “further housing market acceleration” if the Bank of Canada doesn’t start to raise its overnight lending rates.

“As house prices go up, people get bigger and bigger mortgages, they lever themselves up to uncomfortable levels.” he says. “And so you just add so much more vulnerability to the economy.”


Click to play video: 'How inflation could impact the housing market in 2022'



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How inflation could impact the housing market in 2022


How inflation could impact the housing market in 2022 – Dec 15, 2021

© 2022 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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