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Private real estate not feeling the pinch from high rates: Nuveen CIO

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Homeowners may be feeling the bite from elevated interest rates, but Carly Tripp says the trend has not yet caused distress in the global private real estate markets she operates in.

“Throughout the rate cycle we’ve seen some of the best financial performance in areas like housing, health care related real estate and in industrials,” Tripp, global CIO and head of investments at Nuveen Real Estate, told BNN Bloomberg in an interview.

“Market fundamentals are really strong.”

Nuveen is an American asset manager with over US$1.1 trillion in assets.

One area where Tripp notes market tightness is in the U.S. office sector – though she notes she “wouldn’t even call it distress yet.”

“Even in the U.S., where office usage is 50 per cent less of what it was pre-pandemic, we are seeing limited amounts of foreclosures,” she said.

The positives Tripp is seeing on the private real estate side contrast with how public real estate markets have been reacting to higher rates.

The S&P 500 Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts Index is down over 11 per cent this year, which marks more than 18 per cent underperformance to the S&P 500.

“While the asset class globally has plunged due to rising rates and inflation, all the things our sister asset classes are dealing with, there have been bright spots,” Tripp said.

MACRO SUPPORTS FOR PRIVATE REAL ESTATE

Tripp is bullish long-term on where the private real estate market is going, noting some macro indicators that could further support the sector.

In Nuveen’s view, “the rate cycle is mostly behind us at this point globally,” according to Tripp.

“It’s getting a little easier to pinpoint what returns should look like, what exit yields should look like and what the cost of debt should look like,” she said.

U.S. RATE PATH

Tripp said she expects U.S. interest rates will be “higher for longer,” as the country’s central bankers have forecasted.

Economists expect the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold rates on Wednesday for the second straight meeting. Market watchers and investors will be listening closely for rhetoric from the central bank indicating how long rates could stay elevated.

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

On investing, Tripp emphasized the importance of finding areas in the real estate market that have “macro” themes supporting them.

As an example, she pointed to health-care real estate as one likely area of value as the global population ages.

“In 2050, 25 per cent of the global population will be 65 years old, or older. That is very supportive of investing in medical office or senior housing,” Tripp said.

She also highlighted the rental housing market as an opportunity.

“In the U.S., there’s still a shortage of about three million homes, and while we are faced with an increase in supply, we expect that to shake out and equalize around 2025,” she said. “Long-term we still think it’s structurally supportive.”

PUBLIC REAL ESTATE

Though Carly Tripp is a private real estate investor, also shared some insight from her firm about public real estate markets.

“At Nuveen, our view is that the public markets offer a lot value in commercial real estate, particularly if you’re investing alongside an active manager.” Tripp said.

Nuveen is also bullish on office REITs in public markets despite recent stock pressure.

“They’re trading where they were in the early 90s and have great land-value in our opinion,” she said.

COMPETITION IS LIGHT

Tripp said Nuveen is not yet feeling the heat from competition to buy up private real estate.

“Competition is still light, access to debt is still light and liquidity is still really thin in commercial real estate,” Tripp said.

“If you’re a large balance sheet investor and you’re reliant on leverage, this is the time you can really win.”

 

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‘The Bidding War’ taps into Toronto’s real estate anxiety

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‘The Bidding War’ is a play skewering Toronto’s real estate market via a story about a one-day bidding war over the city’s last affordable home. The cast and crew say it exposes how the housing crisis brings out “the worst in people.” (Nov. 12, 2024)

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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