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Quebec looking at $8-billion contingency fund ‘for economic risks’

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QUEBEC — Following up on those pre-Christmas cheques for millions of Quebecers, the Legault government now is coming to the aid of seniors struggling with the cost of living.

But the government is warning the days of Quebec’s record economic growth are coming to an end as the full effects of a worldwide slowdown take hold. To that end and “as a precaution,” Quebec has developed an alternative scenario in which the province’s economy would enter a recession.

The scenario, or Plan B, includes an $8-billion contingency fund — spread over five years — “for economic risks” and to offset the downturn.

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Tabling his fall economic update Thursday, Finance Minister Eric Girard confirmed previously announced plans to increase the maximum amount of the refundable senior assistance tax credit from $411 a year to $2,000, beginning this year.

The measure applies to those 70 and older who already receive this tax credit, and adds to the list of eligible recipients, Girard said. The news means an additional 398,500 seniors will have access to the credit, for a total of 1.1 million people.

The money was a key election promise of the Coalition Avenir Québec, and is the final phase of the party’s so-called anti-inflation shield. A total of 65 per cent of the assistance will go to seniors with an annual income of less than $25,000. The measure will cost Quebec $8 billion over five years.

If you add all the previous measures announced for 2022, the total relief for eligible seniors living alone will be $3,100. For a couple, the amount is $2,200.

Girard has also announced a plan to index the income tax system and social assistance programs to reflect increases in the prices of goods and services, to the level of 6.44 per cent. That indexation kicks in Jan. 1 and represents an additional $2.3 billion in relief.

As an example, a couple with two children and a total income of $100,000 stand to make a gain of $1,004, which includes $537 from the indexing of the tax system and $467 from an increase in family allowance.

But one day before the National Assembly recesses for Christmas, Girard’s update confirmed what he has been saying for weeks: Quebec’s economy is slowing down at an alarming rate, with little relief in sight in the short term.

“The economic outlook for Quebec and Canada has deteriorated quickly,” the update states. “A high degree of uncertainty hangs over the economic and financial forecast.”

The document spells things out bluntly: Quebec’s economic growth is expected to slow from 3.1 per cent in 2022 to 0.7 per cent in 2023. In his March budget, Girard had predicted two per cent growth for 2023.

Job creation will also slow down, resulting in what Girard says will be a temporary rise in unemployment, to an average of five per cent per year in 2023.

And while Girard says he believes inflation peaked at eight per cent in June, the full effects of the slowdown and increases in lending rates by the central bank have yet to be felt.

As a precaution, he included the alternative scenario featuring an $8-billion contingency fund over five years.

“We believe the recession is, more or less, within a 50 per cent probability,” Girard told reporters at a news conference. “It’s good policy to have provisions for contingencies, whether they are pandemic- or economic-related.”

Under the recession scenario, economic activity would decline by one per cent in 2023 before increasing by 1.2 per cent in 2024. The overall negative impact on Quebec’s finances would be a whopping $5 billion in 2023, which would lead to a $4.1-billion deficit in 2023-24.

Various options are on the table to counter a recession, including more direct aid for households and businesses or an increase for public investments in infrastructure.

“For individuals, we have suggested if the economy slows down, it is the appropriate time for a fiscal stimulus,” Girard noted. “The fiscal stimulus we have highlighted as possible would be an income tax reduction.”

In the last election, the CAQ pledged an income tax cut — a promise restated by Premier François Legault in his interview with the Montreal Gazette last month.

For now, Girard’s budgetary deficit projection for 2022-23 remains lower than he said it would be in the March budget. That’s because that same high inflation rate has driven up Quebec’s own source revenues by about $14 billion.

Of that money, $13.2 billion is being turned back over to citizens by Girard with his cost-of-living measures.

Girard is also able to lower a projected $6.5-billion deficit for 2022-23 to $5.2 billion, including a mandatory contribution to the debt-reducing Generations Fund. Quebec is still on track to balance its books by 2027-28, Girard said.

The update represents a followup to a series of other measures promised by the CAQ during the election campaign to help Quebecers deal with inflation.

Up first were cheques of $400 to $600 for citizens who earned less than $100,000 in 2021. A Revenue Quebec spokesperson told the Montreal Gazette Thursday that more than half of the payments — in the form of direct deposit or paper cheques — have already been sent.

Two promised cost-of-living bills have also been tabled by the CAQ and should be adopted before the legislature recesses Friday. Bill 1 slaps a three per cent ceiling on government fee increases, while Bill 2 imposes the same ceiling on hydro rates.

The opposition parties were not impressed, with Québec solidaire saying the update does not include enough specific relief measures for citizens. QS wanted Quebec to immediately increase the minimum wage from $14.25 to $18 an hour and freeze all government fees.

“It’s not generous enough, it’s not targeted enough,” added Liberal finance critic Frédéric Beauchemin. He noted seniors will have to wait until they do their income taxes in order to get the CAQ tax credit, when they need the money now.

pauthier@postmedia.com

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Chile Economy Posts Weaker-Than-Expected Growth at End of 2023 – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Chile’s economy unexpectedly posted a full-year gain for 2023 as upward revisions offset a weak fourth quarter, when a drop in mining compounded the drag from high interest rates and uneven demand.

Gross domestic product rose 0.1% in the October-December period compared with the prior three months, less than the 0.2% median estimate from analysts in a Bloomberg survey, according to the central bank. Revisions to third-quarter growth however meant the economy expanded 0.2% last year, outperforming the median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg for a drop of 0.1%. 

The report represents mixed news for President Gabriel Boric who is trying to turn the page on last year’s weak growth caused by factors including the highest interest rate in over two decades and subdued confidence. Signs including rising energy consumption and a recent increase in retail sales indicate the economy may be turning the corner. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg see Chile expanding faster than the Latin American average in 2024.

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What Bloomberg Economics Says

“Chile’s fourth-quarter GDP data showed weak growth and falling domestic demand — below central bank forecasts and consistent with a widening negative output gap. The print supports the central bank’s quick rate cuts and dovish tone late last year and early in 2024. Leading indicators this year point to a strong rebound in 1Q, with activity rising above central bank projections.”

— Felipe Hernandez, Latin America economist

— Click here for full report

Mining output dropped 2.9% in the fourth quarter compared with the prior three-month period, the central bank reported. The rest of the economy rose 0.6%.

Growth prospects are getting a boost from the central bank’s interest rate reductions, which have shaved 400 points from borrowing costs since late July. Annual inflation is seen slowing toward the 3% target in coming months.

Read more: Chile Rate Cut Bets Shift Again With Smaller Reduction Now Seen

Chile’s government is more optimistic than many private-sector economists in expecting GDP to expand 2.5% in 2024. A recovery in growth will help improve the business environment as the government lures investments in sectors such as lithium, Economy Minister Nicolas Grau said in a March 14 interview. 

Still, the administration has made little headway on key reforms, prolonging doubts for investors over possible tax and pension changes.

For millions of common citizens, the real economy remains stuck. There are so many apartments sitting empty in Chile that the government is considering stepping in to buy some, and unemployment is running at 8.4%, well above the pre-pandemic levels near 7%.

Read more: Homes That Buyers Won’t Touch Show Deepening Crisis in Chile 

–With assistance from Giovanna Serafim.

(Updates with economist quotes in fourth paragraph)

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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Bank of Canada walking a ‘tightrope’ as analysts forecast inflation jump in February

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Economists expect inflation reaccelerated to 3.1% in February

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People banking on an interest rate cut may not like the direction Canadian inflation is heading if analyst expectations prove correct.

Bloomberg analysts expect inflation to reaccelerate to 3.1 per cent in February when Statistics Canada releases its latest consumer price index (CPI) data on Tuesday, following a slowdown to 2.9 per cent year over year in January.

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Article contentCPI core-trim and core-median, the measures the Bank of Canada is most focused on, are forecast to come in unchanged from the previous month at 3.3 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively.

Policymakers made it clear when they held interest rates on March 6 that inflation remained too widespread and persistent for them to begin cutting.

Here’s what economists are saying about tomorrow’s inflation numbers and what they mean for interest rates.

‘Can’t afford missteps’: Desjardins Financial

The Bank of Canada’s preferred measures “have become biased,” Royce Mendes, managing director and head of macro strategy, and Tiago Figueiredo, macro strategist, at Desjardins Financial, said in a note on March 18, “likely overestimating the true underlying inflation rate.”

They estimated the central bank’s preferred measures of core-trim and core-median inflation are overemphasizing items in the CPI basket of goods whose prices are rising more than five per cent. After adjusting for the “biases,” they estimate the bank’s measures are more in the neighbourhood of three per cent — which is at the top of the bank’s inflation target range of one to three per cent.

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Article content“If the Bank of Canada ignores our findings, officials risk leaving monetary policy restrictive for too long, inflicting unnecessary pain on households and businesses,” they said.

Markets have significantly scaled back their rate-cut expectations based on the central bank’s previous comments. Royce and Figueiredo are now calling for a first cut in June and three cuts of 25 basis points for the year.

“Given the tightrope Canadian central bankers are walking, they can’t afford any missteps,” they said.

‘Inflict too much damage’: National Bank

The danger exists that interest rates could end up hurting Canada’s economy more than intended, Matthieu Arseneau, Jocelyn Paquet and Daren King, economists at National Bank of Canada, said in a note.

“As the Bank of Canada’s latest communications have focused on inflation resilience rather than signs of weak growth, there is a risk that it will inflict too much damage on the economy by maintaining an overly restrictive monetary policy,” they said.

They argue there is already plenty of evidence pointing to the economy’s decline, including slowing gross domestic product per capita, which has fallen for six straight quarters. The jobs market is also on the fritz with the private sector having generated almost no new positions since June 2023, they added.

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Article content“Moreover, business survey data do not point to any improvement in this area over the next few months, with a significant proportion of companies reporting falling sales and a return to normal in the proportion of companies experiencing labour shortages,” the economists said.

Despite all these signs of weakness, inflation is stalling, they said, adding it is being overly influenced by historic population growth and the impact of housing and mortgage-interest costs.

The trio expect very tepid growth for 2024 of 0.3 per cent.

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Rising gas prices: RBC Economics

Higher energy prices likely boosted the main year-over-year inflation figure to 3.1 per cent in February, Royal Bank of Canada economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan said in a note.

Gasoline prices rose almost four per cent in February from the month before. But the pair believe a weakened Canadian economy and slumping consumer spending mean “price pressures in Canada are more likely to keep easing and narrowing (to fewer items in the CPI basket of goods).

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China Growth Beats Estimates, Adding Signs Economy Gained Traction With Stimulus

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China’s strong factory output and investment growth at the start of the year raised doubts over how soon policymakers will step up support still needed to boost demand and reach an ambitious growth target.

Industrial output rose 7% in January-February from the same period a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday, the fastest in two years and significantly exceeding estimates. Growth in fixed-asset investment accelerated to 4.2%, strongest since April. Retail sales increased 5.5%, roughly in line with projections.

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