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Quebec plots borrowing spree as weak growth grips economy – Financial Post

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Finance minister delays target to balance books by two years

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Quebec, Canada’s second-largest province, expects to have higher budget deficits for years to come as the economy slows and wages rise for public sector employees.

Finance Minister Eric Girard delayed his target to balance the books by two years, to the fiscal year that ends in 2030, in budget documents released Thursday. It’s a change of fortune for a government that one year ago announced income-tax cuts and said budget shortfalls would rapidly shrink to almost nothing.

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This time, Quebec’s fiscal forecast paints a darker picture. The government sees a deficit of $11 billion for the fiscal year that begins on April 1, $8 billion higher than it expected only four months ago. It’s the third large Canadian province to release a budget in recent weeks, and in every case there has been a notable deterioration in government finances.

To pay for it, Quebec will need to tap the bond market aggressively. The government’s projected financing needs for the coming year are $36.5 billion, a 70 per cent increase from the current year. The figure includes money needed to repay maturing debt.

This is the sixth budget for Girard, a former treasurer of National Bank of Canada, who was re-elected in 2022 as part of a landslide win for Premier Francois Legault and the Coalition Avenir Quebec party, which has since lost ground to the separatist Parti Quebecois in opinion polls. Legault’s nationalist government has sought to attract more investment to the French-speaking province of nine million people, notably in the electric-vehicle supply chain, and to reduce the wealth gap with Ontario, its larger, richer neighbour.

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“It is a challenging and responsible budget in a difficult economic context,” Girard said during a press conference in Quebec City. He announced measures to generate billions in revenue and savings over the next five years — reducing tax breaks for technology companies, hiking taxes on tobacco and conducting a major review of government expenses. “The return to a balance will necessitate real gestures, but it’s feasible.”

Public salaries rise

Quebec is in the throes of an economic slowdown. The province, while blessed with an unemployment rate that’s below the national average, is expected to grow just 0.6 per cent this year and 1.6 per cent in 2025, according to government forecasts.

It has also been hurt by dry weather. Hydro-Quebec, a government-owned utility that exports electricity to the U.S. market, has been grappling with lower water levels in reservoirs, leading to a $1.5 billion shortfall in revenue.

At the end of last year, the government reached an agreement with 600,000 public workers, including teachers, that led to wage increases of 17.4 per cent over five years. The new contracts, and others that are still being negotiated, will add more than $3 billion annually to costs, according to government estimates.

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Over the next three fiscal years, deficits are expected to total more than $23 billion, up about $18 billion from projections in November. The figures include contingency reserves and billions in contributions to the Generations Fund, a reserve fund that’s dedicated to future debt payments and managed by the Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec. The figures could change, of course, if economic growth comes in faster than the government’s long-term forecast.

Girard said the government must boost the average annual growth rate of revenue from 3.3 per cent to 4.4 per cent, while maintaining spending growth at 2.9 per cent, to reach a balanced budget.

Quebec’s finances had improved significantly until the pandemic, helped by strong universities and healthy financial and technology sectors, and budget changes brought in by the previous Quebec Liberal Party government. It remains one of the highest-ranked Canadian provinces with a credit rating of AA- by S&P Global Ratings. Its net-debt-to-GDP ratio, currently 39 per cent, is expected to rise in the short term, but the government promises to reduce it to 30 per cent by 2038.

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Girard announced about $100 million over five years to support two of Quebec’s strategic industries, aerospace and aluminum, but made few changes to business taxes or incentives. “Most corporations can therefore expect their tax position to remain similar for the upcoming year, except for the IT sector where there are some losses,” Kimrang Te, a fiscal expert with Ernst & Young LLP, said in an interview.

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The new deficits show “there is no plan to the return to a balanced budget,” said Frederic Beauchemin, a lawmaker from the opposition Liberal Party who used to be a banker at Bank of Nova Scotia. “The CAQ’s strategy is to wait for the Bank of Canada to lower rates. It’s a government that’s losing control.”

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

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