Toews Era Over In Chicago; Updates on Lehkonen and Landeskog; Playoffs for Forsling, Järnkrok, Skeji, Colton, and More – April 14

With the health issues that Jonathan Toews had suffered over the last few years, it is clear his play was declining faster than a normal aging curve would otherwise dictate. Chicago is in Year 1 of a full rebuild and it will be a while before they’re competitive again.

All that in mind, we got word that Toews, as of Thursday night, has played his final game with Chicago:

Whether Toews is on his way to retirement, or is going the Eric Staal route of jumping from team to team, remains to be seen. Regardless, he is a key figure in the last 20 years of Chicago hockey and the hope is that he can just be healthy.

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Winnipeg got some news on Cole Perfetti:

It is obvious he still has a way to go before returning, but it’s clear he’s making headway. His return could be a big deal for Winnipeg if they can get him in early in the first round.

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Colorado provided updates on Josh Manson and Artturi Lehkonen:

Lehkonen ended up playing on Thursday night so, with no setbacks, he should be in the lineup for Game 1 of the postseason. Even without Gabriel Landeskog back, Lehkonen’s return does give them to true top scoring lines, and that’s a big boost for a team that is continually facing significant injuries.

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In unfortunate injury news, forward Gabriel Landeskog will not return at any point in the playoffs:

That is awful for Landeskog, who was great in their Cup run a year ago with 11 goals and 22 points in 20 games. He had knee surgery back in October and had been lightly skating for a few weeks, but it seems there’s not enough progress to get him back in the next eight weeks. Hopefully he can take a full offseason to rehab and return as a force in the fall.

The team has gotten where they are without him, so it doesn’t change a lot for them, really, other than limit future reinforcements. This roster just needs to stay healthy.

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Carolina did their job by beating Florida 6-4 and securing first overall in the Metro Division. It assures them home ice through to the Eastern Conference Final, should they get that far.

Brent Burns scored twice, giving him 18 goals on the season, his highest total since 2017 when he finished with 29. He also cracked the 60-point plateau for the first time since 2019. He had zero shot blocks in this game, finishing the season with 86 in 82 games, fewer than the total he put up in the 56-game COVID season (94).

Carter Verhaeghe scored in the loss, finishing the season with 42 goals. He has really emerged as an offensive force and like many others before him, the final step unlocking top-level production is a consistent top PP role; Verhaeghe finished with five fewer points at 5-on-5 than Matthew Tkachuk but was over 30 points behind him overall largely for that reason.

The Hurricanes will face the New York Islanders in the first round. That is an interesting matchup, in that it features one team (Carolina) that shoots frequently but is missing a couple top goal scorers and another team (New York) that has arguably the best goalie in the world. Ilya Sorokin‘s ability to keep Carolina to a couple goals a game is the key, obviously. It should be a fun series in that regard.

Florida’s loss locks them into a matchup with the Boston Bruins, who just finished the best regular season in NHL history. It is a daunting task, but I did write a bit about them down below before the game started, and all hope is not lost.

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New Jersey got a goal from Luke Hughes in overtime to win their regular season finale against Washington 5-4. Hughes finished with two points in over 21 minutes of ice time as regulars like John Marino and Ryan Graves took a rest. It is a wonder if they’ll get him into some playoff games. Had Carolina not won their game, it would have pushed the Devils into first in the division, but it was not to be.

As for the postseason, the Devils are going to have home-ice advantage over the New York Rangers in what should be a tremendous series. One team is firmly in their Cup Window while the other is just opening theirs, not to mention the geographic rivalry. It should be a fun series.

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It didn’t end up being a relevant game for the playoffs, but Ottawa-Buffalo was an entertaining game and a nice preview of what could be a fun rivalry for the next several years. Tim Stützle had a goal and an assist, pushing him to 90 points on the season. He just turned 21 years old in January. This kid is an absolute superstar.

Tage Thompson scored once on eight shots in this game, and his goal was on the PP. It pushed him to 20 PP goals on the year, and 47 tallies overall. He finished with just as many assists in just a phenomenal year.

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Today is my final Ramblings before the postseason begins on Monday, April 17^th. Yesterday’s Ramblings covered each playoff team from the Western Conference and today we’ll move over to the East. A brief overview of each team’s season will be provided, as well as thoughts on a player or two for postseason fantasy drafts. We are going to ignore the upper-end options and focus on depth scoring; no one needs to hear that drafting David Pastrnak is a good idea.

For better, more coherent playoff values, be sure to check out the 2023 Dobber Hockey Playoff Draft List that is available in the Dobber Shop! It is customizable for individual leagues and can help any fantasy hockey player get an edge in their postseason formats.

Finally, we will have our Dobber Panel featuring the editors and writers making individual picks sometime this weekend or early next week. For more playoff thoughts, be on the lookout for that.

As always, data will be taken from either our Frozen Tools or Natural Stat Trick, unless otherwise indicated. Alright, let’s get to it, starting at the bottom of the Conference and working our way up.

Florida

I had hopes of seeing Florida get to the postseason. Through December 31^st, the team was fifth in xG share across the NHL at 5-on-5 but tied for 23^rd in points percentage. The problem was being minus-34 on the penalty kill in those 37 games, whereas the power play was just plus-23. They were outscoring teams at even strength, but a bottom-10 save percentage on the PK combined with being one of the most penalized teams in the league was killing their playoff hopes.

In calendar 2023, the PK save percentage has gotten worse, but they’re taking fewer penalties so it’s helping offset that. As the power play improved, they went plus-35 on the PP in these recent 44 games, compared to minus-30 on the PK. The team went from minus-11 on special teams to plus-5. That is a huge swing, and they’ve maintained great 5-on-5 play in that span. This is a dangerous team that I would not want to face in the first round, especially if they can play disciplined.

There could be lots of fantasy goodness if they can make a run to the Conference Final, and the top guys are known. Gustav Forsling is an interesting blue liner, though. He cracked the 40-point mark this season for this first time in his career, and did it with just five PPPs. Tight games could see fewer penalties and his even-strength production over the last two seasons, on a per-minute basis, is 93^rd percentile among defencemen. Hockey is weird and he could lead their blue line in points for however many games they get.

NY Islanders

A lot here hinges on the return of Mathew Barzal. I wouldn’t expect him back for Game 1, but he does seem to be trying to return for the playoffs. Since Bo Horvat arrived in the trade with Vancouver, the Islanders score over 60% more often when Horvat is on the ice with Barzal than without him. Barzal’s playmaking is missed, and if he can get back in the lineup, the Islanders have two pretty good scoring lines and Ilya Sorokin in net. That is enough to beat a lot of teams over a two-week series. If he can’t make it back in the short-term, it is a lot of pressure on Sorokin to steal a series. This team can win in the playoffs, but they need all their top guys healthy, and that’s a big question mark right now.

There shouldn’t be a lot of Islanders players drafted in fantasy pools, but Kyle Palmieri shouldn’t be overlooked. He has 15 points in 18 games since the Trade Deadline, and is a big reason why the Islanders were able to make a push over the final six weeks for a playoff position. Like most Islanders, he needs more than one round for value, but he’s been good for them.

Tampa Bay

Of all teams limping into the postseason, Tampa Bay is the limpest. At the All-Star break, the team stood 32-15-1. They were fourth in points percentage, seventh in xG share at 5-on-5, and sixth in overall goal share. Since the All-Star Game, they are 24^th by points percentage (worse than Arizona), 15^th by xG share at 5-on-5, and 22^nd by overall goal share. They are 13-15-5 in those 33 games, posting fewer wins than St. Louis or Detroit. Perhaps Tampa Bay is just running out of steam, having played 361 total games from the start of the 2019-20 regular season while the next-closest team is Colorado at 333 (and will add two more with the end of the regular season). No other team will reach 330, so Tampa Bay has played at least 10% more games than 30 of the other 31 teams over the last four years. That includes a lot of crammed scheduling, too.

The depth piece they’ll need to take a step in production, beyond the usual names, is Ross Colton. He was a guy I had high hopes for in 2022-23 but he actually lost ice time on a per-game basis compared to 2021-22. All the same, his per-60 goal rate at 5-on-5 over the last two seasons is higher than both Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov, and he was moved to the second line on Thursday night. He had nine points in 23 games in last year’s postseason, playing just 13 minutes a game. Another deep run could see him reach double-digit points.

New York Rangers

This is arguably the most interesting team in the postseason, in my eyes. A year ago, this team had to be carried by goalie Igor Shesterkin as they finished 16^th in goals per minute. That isn’t the case in 2022-23 as the team is 10^th in goals per minute, nestled between Toronto and Colorado. They have three lines that can score, and Adam Fox is a potential Norris Trophy finalist (again). Their xG numbers aren’t great down the stretch, but they have a number of players notorious for breaking xG models like Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin, and Patrick Kane. They can score, and they still have Shesterkin. This is not a team to take lightly in any sense.

With all the scoring options, there are a lot of guys to choose from. However, as the team spreads out ice time, it means more value in the middle of the group, and that means targeting Filip Chytil. He is second on the team in points/60 at 5-on-5 this year and first in primary points/60. He has more 5-on-5 goals (17) than Zibanejad does (16). Chytil had a breakout playoff performance a year ago with seven goals in 20 games. A deep run could see him get to 10 goals alone.

Toronto

If Tampa Bay’s slide is as real as it seems, this is a tremendous opportunity for Toronto to escape the first round for the first time in nearly two decades. The Leafs haven’t been great since the Trade Deadline – outside the top-10 by points percentage, xG share at 5-on-5, and overall goal share at all strengths – but a healthy team should be able to get out of the first round. Auston Matthews will obviously be key here, as he’s had a down year (by his standards) but has eight goals on 58 shots, and 14 total points, in 10 games leading to the season finale. If they get that guy in the postseason, with healthy goaltenders, this could be the breakthrough year.

Aside from all the usual names, plus Ryan O’Reilly, the guy to watch is Calle Järnkrok. The team seems to really like what he brings in the top-6, and it allows them to move Michael Bunting to the third line to help boost the scoring depth. After a very slow start to the season with six points in his first 20 games, Järnkrok has 16 goals and 33 points in his last 52 contests. Keep an eye on line combos over the weekend but this is a guy who can get to 10 points if the team goes to the Final.

New Jersey

New Jersey is giving off some late-aughts Penguins vibes right now: an elite, young core that finally broke through after a rebuild and is now going to get that playoff experience. This is a team that can go deep but they need their big guys to step up. Jack Hughes has had a great season with 43 goals and 97 points heading into Thursday night’s Game 82, but has just eight goals in his last 27 games. He has been prone to long percentage slumps in his young career, and one of those for a couple weeks could see the Devils going home early. That problem spans to the whole team, too, as the Devils lead the league in expected goals for per minute at 5-on-5 since the Trade Deadline, but are 18^th in goals per minute thanks to a poor shooting percentage. This is not a team that can get by on three-or-fewer goals per game and expect to succeed. The Boston Bruins, they are not. But if they can finish, they are capable of beating anyone in the league in a seven-game series, Boston included.

The obvious guys are obvious, but let’s not forget Ryan Graves. He has become the pseudo number-2 defenceman behind Dougie Hamilton, skating more minutes than anyone in New Jersey but Hamilton over the last six weeks. The scoring has picked up, too, with four points in his last six games. Graves is generally not a big point producer, but there are only so many options on the blue line, and the guy playing top minutes for this Devils team should be included.

Carolina

The injuries to Andrei Svechnikov and Max Pacioretty really are a shame. Scoring has generally been an issue for Carolina for years now, at least to the extent that they rarely score to a rate commensurate with their shot generation. To wit: since the Svechnikov injury, a span of 17 games, Carolina is fourth in shot attempts per 60 minutes but 29^th in goals per minute. The team has three 20-goal scorers this year, not including Pacioretty, and one of them is out for the playoffs. As great as Carolina is defensively, teams still need to score in the postseason to succeed: of the last seven Cup winners, the only one not to be a top-10 offensive team in the regular season was St. Louis, and that was the team that turned around in the second half with Craig Berube as coach and Jordan Binnington in net. They were a top-10 scoring team over the final 30 regular season games.

In other words, not a lot of hope from me for Carolina to get to the Cup Final, but they can still win a round or two. Second in ice time among their defencemen since the Svechnikov injury is Brady Skjei, and he has six goals and 11 points in his last 17 games. If the team is going to generate offence, they’ll need big contributions from the blue line, and Skjei will get overlooked past Brent Burns.

Boston

I mean, what left is there to say? They’ve had the best regular season in NHL history, and this was a team I thought might take a step back in 2022-23 (the NHL has a very good way of keeping people humble). Hockey is still a random sport so, statistically, they are still far more likely to not win the Cup than win it, but it sure would feel like the missed opportunity of all missed opportunities if they don’t.

Boston players are going to be incredibly popular, so we’ll probably have to dig for value. Charlie Coyle has seen huge minutes for Boston of late as they’ve rested players, and it could be misleading, but it also shows us who the coaches value outside of the top stars. There is a reason he is getting loads of ice time while guys like Pavel Zacha, Trent Frederic, and Tomas Nosek are not. A run to the Cup Final should see him reach the double-digit point plateau.

Alright, those are my thoughts on each team. Good luck in drafts over the weekend, fantasy puckheads.

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