Raptors Roundtable: Answering five big questions at the quarter mark – Sportsnet.ca

Sitting in 11th place in the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Raptors (7-11) haven’t seen the first quarter of their season go the way many expected.

As the record suggests, it’s been a roller-coaster season so far with, unfortunately, more valleys thus far than peaks.

But while the Raptors have already completed a quarter of their season, the good news is that there are still 54 games left to turn things around — or not, if they’re looking to head in the opposite direction and play for a higher draft pick.

Taking a look back at Toronto’s first 18 games of the season, Sportsnet assembled a group of its basketball experts to answer five big questions about the team here at the quarter mark.

In the lead-up to the season, just about everybody had the Raptors as a playoff team. Given what we’ve seen so far, how would you reassess their ceiling?

Donnovan Bennett, staff writer and digital host: I wouldn’t. The Raptors are as advertised. If they’re economical with the basketball and get bench scoring, they can compete with anyone, but without a dominant half-court scorer they’re shy of being a true championship contender.

There are virtually no modern-day examples of a team winning a championship without at least one true bucket-getter. What has changed isn’t their ceiling but their floor. The margin for error is so much smaller after losing the basketball IQ, leadership, and centre and bench depth Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol provided.

Brad Fay, host of Sportsnet’s Raptors television broadcasts: Still a playoff team. I originally had them as a top-four seed. That will be tough now, but not out of the question.

Michael Grange, senior basketball insider: It’s changed a couple of times already, but I think it remains about where I thought they would be; though having a legit shot to win the East seems a bit ambitious, I still think they can finish top-four and “host” a playoff series.

Steven Loung, NBA editor: Heading into the series I had the Raptors as a lock as a top-four seed in the Eastern conference, now I’m not quite so sure.

This team’s performance has varied so often that the safest bet for them might simply be a play-in tournament appearance at this point, and we’ll see if they can make it to the post-season proper from there.

Eric Smith, Raptors play-by-play announcer on Sportsnet 590 the FAN: I was convinced that the Raptors still had a very good chance to be among the top four or five teams in the Eastern Conference. Can they crack the top five still? It may be tough considering the early-season hole that they’ve dug. However, they are still a playoff team in my mind and I fully expect them to be in the post-season — no matter the seed.

Nobody really seems to be running away with things in the East yet, thus jockeying for position is still up for grabs with over 50 games remaining.

The biggest question heading into the season was if Pascal Siakam could bounce back. What’s your assessment of his performance thus far?

Bennett: Siakam was the 27th pick in the draft in 2016. The fact that he’s now an all-star and a contributor on a championship team is a wild success. He’s now being punished because of elevated expectations due to how quickly he originally exceeded expectations. I don’t know if he has to “bounce back” as much as he has to be given room to continue to grow.

He’s 26 and improvement and development in a player so raw isn’t a linear process. I’m not selling any Siakam stock. In fact, I’ll buy more if the value is low.

Fay: Siakam has gotten back to the level we “had” known, but he has yet to take the step that warrants the max contract. Who knows if those two potential buzzer-beaters fall whether that would have ignited him?

Biggest thing missing from the Raptors is the guy who can get a bucket when needed. Siakam needs to become that guy.

Grange: Lots of promising signs. The worst seems to be behind him, but his best requires him to identify himself as an elite role player that contributes in all phases with a taste of go-to scoring rather than getting into the trap of thinking his value is as a ball-dominant, high-volume closer, where his value rises and falls only with his offence.

Loung: Quite frankly, I haven’t been too impressed. On one hand, I realize that the nature of Siakam’s rise means that the expectation that he’ll just continue to meteorically improve is completely unrealistic. On the other, however, the fanbase’s frustration with their max player looking anything but that for most of the season thus far is understandable.

It was considered a good gamble when the Raptors signed him to that max extension before last season, and in the long-term it could still play out that way, but right now it looks like the dice that have been cast are coming up snake eyes.

Smith: Some may immediately jump to the word “inconsistent,” but I will simply say “incomplete.”

There’s no denying that he started the season slow, struggling in many facets quite frequently, but just as he seemed to be turning things around he got sidetracked for a couple of games with the knee swelling and that halted some of the positive momentum he had going.

If Toronto is going to be successful, he needs to be a high-energy, effective player on both ends of the floor every single night.

Another question mark around the Raptors was their centre situation. Alex Len was waived, meaning they have only Aron Baynes and Chris Boucher to man the position. What are your thoughts on Toronto’s current centre situation, and what, if anything, needs to change?

Bennett: The Raptors don’t have a centre situation. The only centre who has been remotely productive is Boucher, who’s smaller than their starting power forward.

I’ve long been a proponent that they should start Boucher and commit to playing 48 minutes small with Siakam, OG Anunoby and even Stanley Johnson taking turns guarding bigs. Any benefit playing a traditional big like Baynes has proven to be negligible at best or diminishing returns at worst.

Fay: Good signs from Baynes of late, and, of course, Boucher has gone beyond expectations. The way this team is built, if Baynes can simply produce 6-8 points and 4-6 rebounds a night while playing some tough defence, that would make them much better.

Grange: Can they turn back time and make a better offer to Ibaka? Boucher has bailed them out of a bad situation, but ideally they need a starter-level big. Not sure where that comes from, though.

Loung: I actually thought the addition of Baynes would be enough to help mitigate the loss of Ibaka and Gasol.

Oh, how wrong I was.

While it’s true Boucher has really taken a leap and could push to be in the team’s starting five with his productivity, I think the Raptors still need to find another big body to help man the position. Baynes hasn’t proven to be as good a rebounder, nor three-point shooter as he was last season, and the Raptors just generally play better without him on the floor. What they have at the five simply isn’t good enough.

Smith: Do the Raptors need a little bit more depth or size in the front court? Yes, but does it have to be at the centre position, specifically? Not necessarily.

In today’s NBA I would rather have a versatile player that could play the four or five (maybe even the three; see: Anunoby), not just slot somebody in as a centre, period.

But with Baynes’ up-and-down play (he has been better of late) and Boucher being the only other option, there’s no denying that Toronto’s not as deep up front as it would like to be.

What — or who — has surprised you most about the team, either in a positive or negative way?

Bennett: Who Nick Nurse trusts or has been forced to trust has surprised me. If you were to tell me the Raptors would look their best when some combination of Boucher, Johnson and Yuta Wanabe are on the floor I’d assume you were referring to Raptors 905, not the Toronto Raptors. But Nurse has proven he doesn’t care who you are or what the preconceived notions are about your game, he’ll throw you in the fire at a moment’s notice and continue to reward you with role expansion if you provide effort and execute consistently.

Fay: Boucher is the obvious positive development, but over the last two weeks Anunoby has taken it to another level.

The disappointment has been a fairly veteran team having a 4-5 minute offensive drought nearly every night.

Grange: I guess I should stop being surprised at the Raptors’ ability to find value in players other organizations overlook or give up on, Johnson and Watanabe being the latest two examples. Negatively, I would say how little chemistry Kyle Lowry and Baynes have been able to develop. Didn’t see that coming.

Loung: Speaking positively, how great and important has the discovery been that Johnson and Watanabe can play and make an impact on the team? Without those two guys going all-out on defence, there’s a good chance the Raptors would be in an even deeper hole than the one they’re in now.

From a negative perspective, it’s been shocking seeing the Raptors so easily concede leads and be unable to hold on and build them and put teams to bed like they used to. Sure, it’s a different team, but it’s not that different. It’s a worrying indication that maybe that “it” factor the club used to have simply isn’t there anymore.

Smith: I will give you one of each.

What has surprised me is the team’s struggles with holding leads and closing out games. Historically, over the last number of seasons, the Raptors have been very good at maintaining double-digit leads or putting opponents away when building a lead, and they’ve been equally adept at closing fourth quarters and being highly efficient in the final few minutes of the game. All of those facets have plagued Toronto this season.

Who has surprised me? Johnson. He has been a massive bright light. There’s no denying how impressive Anunoby has been — or Boucher for that matter as well — but Johnson has come out of nowhere to be a very important piece to the second unit and his defence is a major plus for Nurse to rely on.

The NBA’s March 25 trade deadline is about two months from now. Will the Raptors be buyers or sellers when that time comes?

Bennett: They’ll stand pat or be buyers. With the extended chance at a post-season spot due to the play-in tournament, the fine line between buyers and sellers will be murky.

Outside of Norman Powell, there isn’t much on the roster the team will be willing to part with that will net a significant return.

Fay: This is a tough call and probably revolves around Lowry. If the Raptors decide to move on (or grant him that wish), they could get a nice future package in exchange.

Grange: More likely sellers, if only to package one of their excess wings — Matt Thomas, Terence Davis or Powell — for a bit piece. At that point I don’t see them taking on money in a trade after all the effort they made to keep the cap clean in 2021. If the bottom falls out, I’m sure they would look to move Lowry to a compatible destination, but easier said than done.

Loung: If their up-and-down play persists this decision will be even harder, but for now I’d say they’re buyers. In my estimation I’d say they’ll probably be looking to offload one of their wing players for a big man that can box out, grab rebounds and play decent enough defence as a replacement for Baynes.

Smith: I think it’s too early to tell. As I said earlier, I think they could use some help in the front court. However, does that mean that they’re buyers and not sellers? I always assume that being a seller means that you’re looking to deal anyone and everyone and I don’t believe that’s the case with them. Not yet. Let’s see where they stand by the time the first week of March rolls around.

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