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Reactions To Rising Inflation Have Begun – Investment Drama Ahead – Forbes

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Inflation reality is biting, and consumers are noticing. Such an environment has been absent for years, so it’s time for investors to shift gears – and act.

Inflation uptrends are unlike all other economic and market growth cycles. The negative results produce reactionary business, financial, government and consumer behavior that fosters the uptrend.

Now that rising inflation is the topic of the day, anticipatory and reactionary actions already are visible:

Businesses get green light to raise prices –

Inflation Helps Boost Profit Margins

“Companies seize rare opportunity to increase prices and outrun their own rising costs.”

The Wall Street Journal (November 15, page A-1)

Consumers begin to buy ahead of possible price rises –

Shoppers Increase Spending, Despite Inflation

“Retail sales rose by 1.7% in October as consumers bucked the pandemic, higher prices.”

The Wall Street Journal (November 17, page A-1)

Financial management begins to make aggressive shifts –

CalPERS To Borrow, Add Risk To Meet Targets” [Higher inflation means higher liabilities, requiring higher returns]

“The move by the $495 billion California Public Employees’ Retirement System reflects the dimming prospects for safe publicly traded investments by households and institutions alike and sets a tone for increased risk-taking by pension funds around the country.”

The Wall Street Journal (November 16, page B-1)

Government seeks to exhibit active, consumer-friendly role –

President Calls for Inquiry into Price of Gas

“President Biden called on the Federal Trade Commission to investigate whether oil-and-gas companies are participating in illegal conduct aimed at keeping gasoline prices high, in the latest effort by the White House to respond to public concerns about costs for everything from fuel to groceries.”

The Wall Street Journal (November 18, page A-1)

Federal Reserve attempts to find its way as “temporary” and “transitory” reassurances fail –

Fed officials express resolve to address inflation risks

“Federal Reserve officials in discussions earlier this month said the central bank ‘would not hesitate’ to take appropriate actions to address inflation pressures that posed risks to the economy.”

Associated Press (November 25)

Analysts become outspoken about the inflation reality –

The Fed Is Running Out of Excuses on Inflation

“Every time the Federal Reserve comes up with an excuse for raging inflation and why it won’t last, the data knock it back down.

“Inflation hasn’t turned out to be temporary and has accelerated, reaching the highest in a single month since January 1990. It is high even when measured against pre-pandemic prices, so this isn’t merely catch-up for the deflation of last spring. It is no longer merely about a narrow set of Covid-disrupted supply chains, or demand for used cars and other popular items. Even the get-out-of-jail-free card of FAIT, the Fed’s year-old policy of flexible average inflation targeting, is wearing thin.

“The only explanation remaining is that inflation will still be transitory–not as temporary as hoped, but that it will go away on its own. Investors still buy the story, but the risk is rising that the Fed has to act much more aggressively.”

James Mackintosh in The Wall Street Journal (November 15, page B-1)

The bottom line: Wall Street is preparing for a dramatic investment shakeup

Wall Street is scanning the horizon for signs of rising inflation hitting where it will hurt worst: Fixed income securities. Wall Streeters know that bond holders will suffer mightily when the bond “vigilantes” return to demand full return for risk.

Long-term bond yields used to move independently from the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate management. As the Fed begins the needed shift back to market-determined short-term rates, the long-term bond market will regain that independence. After all, a ten-year bond yielding a negative real yield now is assured of being a real loser in a rising inflationary period.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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