COVID-19 has changed life as we know it. It’s still hard to fathom exactly what’s going on, both with the markets, which fell by about 6% in Canada and 8% in the U.S., and in life. My kids are now home all of the time, FaceTime cocktails are now a thing (and more fun than I had expected), and date night consists of a quick trip to the grocery store. Romance in Aisle 1?
I’ve also had a lot of talks with friends about the economy and the markets. They tell me their portfolio is down a ton, I say mine is too, though I don’t know by how much because I’m not checking. I know they’re down by 30%, but I don’t need to obsess over the specifics. I’m not selling because, what’s the point? My portfolio has already fallen and you only lose that money if you liquidate. I still have at least a couple decades to go before I need those savings, and my hope is that the markets, like they always have, rise at some point before then.
Still, all of this is confusing and it’s hard for anyone, including a personal finance journalist, to know why the market is reacting the way it is and what they should do. So I asked four smart people for their thoughts on the current state of the markets. Here’s what they had to say.
Norman Raschkown
President and portfolio manager at TenSquared Investments
People want to come up with comparable periods to help them put this into context. A lot of people are talking about 2008 because of the severity of that market shock, but it’s different. In 2008 the real problem was excessive leverage, so the solution was backstopping banks and re-capitalizing them.
This time the issue isn’t financial. Cutting rates isn’t going to do anything. It’s not like if there’s a cut everyone is going to get back to work. The governments do have the right idea of getting cash in the hands of the public to help them get through this period. But the reality is that we don’t know how long this will last and what the fallout will ultimately be.
The biggest risk is how long this lasts and how deep the impact is in the U.S.—but the U.S. is behind in terms of taking it seriously. So, the best case is that it lasts through the summer. My best guess right now is that you’re looking at having a recession—two quarters of negative growth—but there will be enough pent up demand and you will see positive growth by the third quarter of the year and the recession will be over.
There are opportunities for people who have some cash and we have started to dip our toe in and make selective purchases of high-grade stocks. Canadian banks have gotten really cheap and they’re offering yields of 7%. It’s good to remember that in 2008 and 2009, none of the Canadian banks cut their dividends. We also added to [our holdings of] Canadian Tire, which is down 50% from where it was months ago. It’s an example of a high-quality business, and when things recover, they will be well positioned. In this environment, you don’t need to speculate.
Gaelen Morphet
Chief investment officer at Cinnamon Investments
We’re seeing incredible values out there, and it’s exciting from an investment point of view. The big question is timing and where we see the bottom. If you were to look out 10 years, I would say there’s a lot of opportunities to make money right now—and that’s the biggest message I can deliver right now, given my 35 years of experience. Over the medium term, though, how long does this go and how depressed does the stock market get?
The stock market does discount that in advance, and so that’s why we’ve seen such a swift reaction and this pullback. I’ve been involved in 1987, 2000, 2008 and 2011, and this one is the swiftest—and the impact to the economy, or at least the perceived impact to the economy has happened much faster. If this is short, then there’s an unbelievable opportunity here, because as soon as the market sees some signs of improvement, it will respond accordingly. If we get any good news, I expect the rally to be swift and large—but it may not last, that’s the problem. You have to be careful in times of so much volatility.
There are a lot of good financial stocks that have been absolutely crushed, and they’re trading around book value with really decent yields. There are also companies that are always expensive that investors never feel comfortable owning, but if they focus on the basic investing tenets of low price-to-earnings ratio and a great balance sheet, then you can find things you normally couldn’t buy. I’m looking at CGI (a Canadian tech company that’s down 30% since Feb. 21) and Brookfield Asset Management (down 38%), which has had a huge run. I’m watching those two closely.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.
The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.
The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.
The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.
The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.
Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.
The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.
Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.
Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.
Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.
The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.
