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Real estate agents are feeling the pain: Housing market golden handcuffs are very real

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Back in the late 1970s, the term golden handcuffs was popularized as a way to explain why ambitious professionals were choosing to stay put rather than explore other employment options. The reason being, of course, that their employers were spoiling them with generous above-market compensation—including stock options—and benefits.

Fast-forward to 2023, and the term golden handcuffs can also be used to explain why many homeowners who’d like to move are instead choosing to stay put. See, if these homeowners did choose to sell their home and buy something new, they’d likely be giving up their 2% to 3% mortgage rate and taking on something in the 6% to 7% ballpark. That potential mortgage rate payment shock is just too pricey for many would-be move-up buyers to stomach.

If a borrower were to take on a $500,000 mortgage at a 3% interest rate, they’d owe a monthly $2,108 principal and interest payment over the course of the 30-year loan. However, at a 7% mortgage rate, that payment would be $3,327 per month.

Simply put: The 2% and 3% mortgage rates—which were a policy outcome of the COVID-19 recession—are acting as golden handcuffs.

And the numbers back it up.

According to Realtor.com (see chart below), a total of 406,822 homes were listed for sale in May 2023. That’s down 22.9% from the 527,920 listed for sale in May 2022, and down 30.4% from the 584,952 listed for sale in pre-pandemic May 2019.

The lack of homes for sale spells bad news for real estate agents and mortgage brokers who make their living on transaction volume. See, the fact that new listings are down 22.9% on a year-over-year basis means that home sales are staying suppressed even as buyers come back into the market.

For real estate agents who work in communities with high construction volume, things aren’t so bad given that many builders have brought back agent commissions. However, mortgage brokers aren’t so lucky: They’re also dealing with the fact that the refinance market has plummeted. After all, how many 2% and 3% mortgage rate holders want to refi when rates are over 6%?

The searchable chart below shows the shift in new listings for the 100 largest U.S. housing markets.

Keep in mind that pullback in new listings isn’t just felt on the supply side, it’s also delivering a hit to the demand side. If a particular homeowner decides to hold off on trading up properties, it means there is one fewer home going on the market and one fewer buyer hitting the market.

To better gauge the supply and demand balance, it’s best to instead look at active listings, otherwise known as inventory. Unlike the new listing total (i.e. the number of homes going on the market in a given month), the active listing total (i.e. total inventory on the market) is a better indicator for the balance in a market at any given time.

In May 2023, active listings were 22.1% higher than May 2022 (signaling some housing market softening); however, active listings are down 50.5% since May 2019 (signaling it’s still a competitive market, nationally speaking).

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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