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Real estate: Canadian home sales continue to slow

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OTTAWA –

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) says the country’s housing market continued to slow in September — a stark contrast from the flurried pace of sales the fall usually delivers.

The association said Friday that September sales were down 3.9 per cent compared with August, a slight increase in the current sales slowdown that began with the Bank of Canada’s first interest rate hike in March.

Compared with a year ago, home sales in September were down 32.2 per cent and about 12 per cent below the pre-pandemic 10-year average for the month.

“September was another month of lower sales activity, although, with many sellers also opting to play the waiting game, the market remains on the tighter side of balanced market territory,” said Jill Oudil, CREA’s chair, in a news release.

“It makes for an interesting dynamic, one that doesn’t really have many historical precedents.”

The national slowdown CREA reported comes almost two weeks after real estate boards in many major cities, including Toronto and Vancouver, reported drops in sales and far fewer new listings than they expected for what is usually one of the busiest times of year.

Instead of the frenzy, they found few bidding wars and many sellers discouraged from listing their properties because they feared they wouldn’t fetch as much money as their neighbours did at the start of the year, when the market was moving at a torrid pace.

Robert Kavcic, a senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said the conditions are causing a “standoff in the market.”

“Buyers can’t qualify for, or afford, early-year prices, and probably don’t want to catch falling knives anyway (how quickly the sentiment turned),” he wrote in a note to investors.

“But, sellers are able to hold out for better market conditions or, in the case of investors, put units on the rental market. In other words, the market is just not clearing right now–hence the lack of transaction volumes.”

He noted that while the market balance is soft, there is no forced selling or dumping of properties, and added that he still sees the country’s new listings as “very well-behaved” because the number of newly listed homes was down 0.8 per cent on a month-over-month basis in September.

On a year-over-year basis, new listings were down 1.5 per cent.

“Listings fell for the third straight month, indicating that a softening economy and higher interest rates have yet to force a meaningful increase in supply,” said James Orlando, a director and senior economist with TD Economics, in a note to investors.

“If anything, soft price conditions are keeping potential sellers on the sidelines.”

The actual national average home price was $640,479 in September, down 6.6 per cent compared with the same month last year.

CREA said excluding the Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto Area, two of Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets, cuts more than $117,000 from the national average price.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the national average home price totalled $650,172, a 1.2 per cent drop from August.

With the Bank of Canada expected to hike its policy rate even more, Orlando expected additional price pressure and forecast a 22 per cent decline in average home prices between the start of 2022 and 2023.

Meanwhile, Kavcic said, “With mortgage rates across the spectrum set to push above five per cent as the Bank of Canada tightens further, this downward price discovery is probably going to persist well into next year, and anyone holding out for better market conditions is going to need a stroke of luck.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 14, 2022.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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