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Real estate 'cash flow compounders' identified by Scotiabank analyst – The Globe and Mail

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Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow

A report by Scotiabank analyst Himanshu Gupta identifies ‘cash flow compounders’ in the domestic real estate sector,

“We now have three cash flow compounders under our coverage namely Colliers (CIGI), FirstService (FSV) and StorageVault (SVI). All three names combined account for approximately 25 per cent of the S&P/TSX Real Estate Index … All three are roll-up stories. All three are market leaders in their respective highly-fragmented markets and enjoy competitive advantage which translates into superior organic growth. All three are Corporations and not REITs. All three have higher insider ownership.

“All three names have printed double-digits earnings growth over the last five years. We expect superior growth in the next two years as well.

“All three are the top performers within our entire coverage universe (Exhibit 59). We looked at total returns since June 2015 (since CIGI’s incorporation), and Summit Industrial (SMU) is the only other name within the top #4 performers list (apart from SVI, FSV and CIGI). Recall – SMU was privatized by a JV comprising GIC and DIR in Feb’23. We have SO-rating on CIGI and SVI, and initiated coverage on FSV with SP-rating. Our pecking order is CIGI, SVI and FSV. With CIGI, we expect acceleration in earnings growth in 2023-25E at +17.2% CAGR [compound annual growth rate] (vs +11.9% CAGR in 2016-23A). For FSV and SVI, we expect nearly double-digit earnings growth in the next two years but a bit slower than what they have achieved in the last several years”

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BofA Securities investment strategist Michael Hartnett’s weekly report was even more strident than usual (my emphasis),

“The Biggest Picture: 10-year annualized return of US Treasuries at 65-year low (0.6%); 2020s era of war, protectionism, fiscal excess, scarce energy/housing/labor = higher inflation & higher cost of capital until recession sparks “buy bond humiliation.” Tale of the Tape: “ABB” (Anything But Bonds) Bull inciting greed for inflation hedges & monopolistic cash flows (new highs gold & Magnificent 7) + fear of leverage (see REITs, KRE [S&P Regional banking ETF] , RTY [Russell 2000]) & duration (XBI [S&P Biotech SPDR] ); “no landing” probability rising…rare for tech & commodities both top-of-the-price , but consistent with no landing and very 1999

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BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic tackled the announced changes to domestic mortgages,

“Canada announced a few new housing affordability measures on Thursday, ahead of next week’s budget, including an extension to 30- year amortizations for some buyers. The extension will apply to first-time homebuyers of a new build, with an insured mortgage. We don’t have a precise estimate on the share of housing activity that this will cover, but suffice it to say that the policy change drills down into a small segment. First-time buyers are just under half of transaction activity, with their share falling in recent years while investors and moveup buyers have gained. At the same time, insured mortgages have fallen to just around 15% of new originations recently. As for affordability in this sliver of the market, a switch from 25 to 30- year amortization will add about 8% to buying power at a 5% mortgage rate with a fixed downpayment. This could shift some incremental activity toward new builds among first-time buyers (until prices adjust), but the overall market impact should be limited. And that’s a good thing, as juicing demand is rarely the right prescription for a market already struggling with excess demand”

***

Diversion: “New Boeing Whistleblower Claims Certain Planes Could ‘Break Apart’ Midair” – Gizmodo

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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