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Real estate deals stalled according to Altus Group report – Daily Commercial News

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Webinar panellists asked for their reading of the real estate sector across the country during a recent session billed as a pan-Canadian “pulse check” suggested the prospects of recovery in the industry are fraught with uncertainty.

The May 25 Urban Land Institute webinar began with analysis of first-quarter real estate market statistics as well as second-half 2020 market forecasts by Altus Group executive researcher Raymond Wong and his colleague Patricia Arsenault, an executive vice-president in research consulting with the firm.

Wong reported that a survey of clients showed over 50 per cent of respondents said all real estate investment transactions were currently on hold. Broken down into sectors, 50 per cent of office deals were on ice and 58 per cent of retail transaction were on hold, as were 51 per cent of industrial transactions and 53 per cent of residential.

Arsenault addressed the supply side of housing, noting COVID-related uncertainties influencing investors and builders included future low immigration and flat employment numbers.

“Most but not all new project launches planned for spring were pushed off,” Arsenault said. “Most of the delayed projects could be brought to market fairly quickly but that is only if there if was evidence of sustained pick-up in demand.

“As well, I suspect there will be many project postponements for a longer time period as proponents re-evaluate their projects’ viability.”

On the housing demand side, there was bad news and better news, Arsenault said.

The poor economy won’t necessarily mean housing demand will switch from ownership to rentals, she explained.

“Rather, household formation rates tend to go down, younger people will stay at home longer, they will move back in with parents, singles double up, couples delay splitting up, all those factors…will impact housing demand levels,” Arsenault explained.

But the burden of unemployment has not been borne equally, she said, with layoffs hitting people on the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum more than the more wealthy.

“Many of those could choose to buy right now,” she said. “Or they could still choose to wait and see what’s going on in the short term.”

But eventually, Arsenault said, that group represents potential future pent-up demand.

The presentations by Wong and Arsenault were followed by a panel discussion of real estate and construction prospects across the country featuring development experts from Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia.

Jeff Thompson, Alberta-based vice-president with Ledcor, a constructor active in many sectors, noted there was a lot of “tire kicking” going on in the housing sector.

“Everybody still has lots of projects that they want to proceed with,” he said. “They don’t know when exactly. They have to figure out what the metrics need to look like.”

But still, across the country, the pipeline of potential projects is full, though there is regional disparity, he said. He said the dip in productivity felt during the pandemic might continue for a couple more months but then production could return.

Brian McCauley, Vancouver-based president and CEO of Concert Properties, which has a busy portfolio in the residential, commercial and industrial sectors, said construction productivity in his province was returning to normal after cratering in the first weeks after the start of the crisis in March, with 85 to 90 per cent of the construction workforce now back on the job, but costs raised potential alarms.

“We don’t know how trade contractors will price this uncertainty or these hiccups that are related to COVID’s new safety precautions,” said McCauley. “That is not only causing some delays on the production side, but it is also a point of uncertainty moving forward.”

He said he doubts the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s warning that housing prices could drop by up to 18 per cent in the next year. He said given supply constraint and continued demand, it is likely prices will remain high, especially in Vancouver and Toronto.

Key factors to rebuilding homebuyer confidence, McCauley said, are jobs returning in a stable economy, resumption of immigration and low interest rates.

Meanwhile, McCauley said there could be a “seismic shift” in the public-oriented retail market, including restaurants and bars. It was a point introduced by panel moderator Duncan Wlodarczak, Vancouver-based chief of staff with the Onni Group, who said he heard from one U.S. commentator recently that 80 per cent of restaurants might go under.

“Some of them might not survive going forward but we are doing everything we can to keep them active and engaged,” McCauley said.

Panellist Lesley Leech, a Toronto-based director with office and retail developer Cadillac Fairview, acknowledged the retail market was hit hard. She said her firm is working constantly to help tenants survive their months-long shutdowns. Leech was asked if the developer was working on a strategy to repurpose some of its retail portfolio.

“Our investment team and development team is strategizing on all our current plans out there and we will wait to see what the trends are,” she said, adding Cadillac Fairview would wait to obtain more information before making such “major decisions.”

Follow the author on Twitter @DonWall_DCN.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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