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Real estate forum optimistic for Edmonton Downtown rebound

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Inflation, construction costs, along with swaths of office and retail vacancies in Edmonton’s Downtown core are not insurmountable problems, industry leaders heard at a Wednesday commercial real estate forum.

Hosted by NAIOP Edmonton, the 2023 Broker Panel heard from representatives from office, retail, industrial, investment and multifamily spaces.

Mark Anderson, vice-president of CBRE Edmonton, said it’s an opportunity to share what the private sector is experiencing but it is not distinct to Edmonton.

“I think it’s really important that we recognize that this is not a uniquely Edmonton problem. This is something that’s been experienced in Vancouver, in Toronto,” he told reporters. “Us Edmontonians, sometimes we’re just so good about being self-deprecating. It’s easy for us to get into that echo chamber thinking that this is just our problem. So it’s not deeply alarming.”

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Anderson said the office vacancy rate in Edmonton is reaching 23 per cent, which has been a lasting impact from the pandemic as offices retool their workplace strategies and employee concerns over flexibility to work from home.

Retailers are also facing a difficult challenge. Recently, Sport Chek announced it would be leaving Edmonton City Centre mall. Anderson said retailers need people in the core in order to have a viable business model.

“It’s really critical, once again, to bring people back Downtown, and then the business case is for these retailers to stay and grow and open up new businesses is going be a heck of a lot stronger.”

One of the concerns has been safety and security in Edmonton’s Downtown, but Anderson said some promising moves have been made by the city and the Alberta government to address houselessness, mental health issues and overall social disorder.

Anand Pye, executive director of NAIOP, said the organization has been advocating for policies that would bring opportunities for capital and investment to the city.

“Make sure that taxes are competitive with other jurisdictions, make sure that we’re positioning ourselves in a way that attracts a lot of investment and capital from other markets to come here to build things and to start new businesses,” he said. “Then we also work on how quickly we can translate a business need into a new building or repurpose old buildings.”

During the panel, Anderson said the market has been in a state where it takes two steps forward and one step back. But there are promising signs. He alluded to an upcoming announcement by a company that has chosen to relocate its head office to Edmonton and will occupy 42,000 square feet.

He noted it will take time to bring people back to the city’s centre, but the private sector is leading the way.

“This is still a really important conversation to have, and we need to start shining some light on these conversations so we can actually have some meaningful progress towards bringing people Downtown,” he said.

Coun. Anne Stevenson, whose ward includes Downtown, attended the panel Wednesday and said she is pleased with the optimism and is looking forward to a positive 2023.

“The success of our Downtown really becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, focusing on the positives, encouraging people to come down, while not shying away from the challenges and the difficult conversations we need to have,” she said.

“It’s really looking holistically at that positive momentum that the Downtown is gaining.”

 

ajunker@postmedia.com

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Billions of dollars in commercial real estate loans are due; here’s why you should care – KARE11.com

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Billions of dollars in commercial real estate loans are due; here’s why you should care  KARE11.com

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How distress in office real estate could ripple out into the markets – Axios

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Animated illustration of a desk out in the desert with a tumbleweed blowing by.

Illustration: Sarah Grillo / Axios

Office vacancies — plus the still simmering banking crisis — have us considering what a potential bust in the $6 trillion U.S. office property market might mean.

Why it matters: A deep downturn in property values is more than a problem for oligarchs, feuding billionaire clans and oil-rich foreign wealth funds.

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State of play: Office utilization is still low compared to the before-times, with WFH and hybrid set-ups now standard for millions of former office drones.

By the numbers: Nearly 30% of companies still have remote or hybrid options — though that’s come down from 40% in 2021, the latest government data shows.

  • Utilization — how many people actually use the offices that their companies rent — is down roughly 50% from pre-COVID levels, according to swipe-card systems operator Kastle Systems.
  • Office building appraisal values were down 25% in February compared to a year prior, according to a Goldman Sachs note that cites research shop Green Street.
  • Office rents — especially in large cities with lengthy commutes — have fallen, too.

The latest: Signs of stress are picking up, with delinquencies on commercial office mortgages touching 2.4% in February, up from 1.5% six months ago, according to Trepp. Defaults are starting to appear as well.

The impact: The value of commercial property produces anywhere between 20% and 40% of tax revenues for states and localities.

  • If those revenues fall, governments will have to cut services, raise taxes, or both, making cities less attractive.

Meanwhile, smaller banks are big lenders to real estate developers, putting them at risk if office defaults spike.

  • Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that banks hold roughly half of the $5.6 trillion in commercial property mortgages outstanding, with the overwhelming majority of that half held at small banks.
  • Many of those same regional banks have been under pressure since Silicon Valley Bank failed. With deposits migrating to larger institutions — or simply to higher-interest accounts like money markets — they’ll have less capacity to refinance loans on office properties.

  • Property loans typically need to be refinanced every five to seven years — and failure to refinance or pay off the loan can result in a default. When that happens, the debt gets renegotiated, and the lender often takes losses.
  • If defaults pile up, it could worsen the pressure on office building values and make banks leerier of making office loans — exacerbating the defaults and the banks’ losses.

Finally, pension funds have also sunk billions into real estate in recent years. The top 200 institutional managers owned about a half-trillion worth of real estate in 2022, according to trade publication Pensions & Investments.

  • “How those real estate portfolios of buildings are doing, will then affect, in the end, returns which these pension funds are getting. And that will also affect households which are dependent on these pension funds,” says Vrinda Mittal, a Ph.D. candidate in finance and economics at Columbia Business School who has studied private real estate investments.

The bottom line: We’re still in the early stages of the post-COVID era for offices, and how it will shake out is the trillion-dollar question.

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B.C. real estate: 2 resort properties on sale for $8.25M

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A pair of sprawling resort properties in B.C. – complete with a hotel, ski runs and lifts, lakefront cabins, a campground, and a pub – are on sale for less than the price of some Vancouver tear-downs.

Colliers has listed the Powder King Ski Resort and its “sister property” The Azouzetta Lake Resort for $8,250,000. It’s being billed as a “once in a lifetime opportunity” to purchase the two properties, which are located at the base of the Pine Pass in Northeastern B.C.

The properties are remote, located 67 kilometres east of Mackenzie and 195 kilometres north of Prince George.

This image from an online listing by Colliers shows a resort property for sale in Northeastern B.C. (Image credit: collierscanada.com)

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The ski resort, according to the listing, has been rated number 1 for snow in Canada, getting an average of 12 metres of snowfall each winter. In total, there are 364 hectares of skiable terrain, comprised of 37 runs serviced by three lifts.

Accommodations at the ski resort include a 50-room hotel, two cabins for staff, a lodge with a licensed pub and a cafeteria. The possibility for expansion is built in, the online listing says, noting the resort has a master plan with the province.

“There is a three-phase development plan which allows for land acquisitions, real estate development, commercial development, ski runs, lifts, and summer recreation activities,” the realtor’s website says.

This image from an online listing by Colliers shows a resort property for sale in Northeastern B.C. (Image credit: collierscanada.com)

The second resort is roughly six kilometres away from the ski resort, situated on the “pristine,” 340-acre Azouetta Lake. The property includes several rustic but fully equipped A-frame cabins, RV sites, a campground, and on-site accommodations for a manager.

“The lake supports rainbow trout and an array of natural wildlife as well as numerous recreational opportunities such as kayaking, canoeing and boating as well as mountain biking, hiking, and other pursuits nearby,” the description from Collier’s says.

This image from an online listing by Colliers shows a resort property for sale in Northeastern B.C. (Image credit: collierscanada.com)

The property also has a gas station, a convenience Store and a restaurant called Café 97 which is open seven days a week, year-round.

A video tour of the property shows more of what it has to offer.

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