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Real estate: Is it a buyer’s market now?

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It is officially a buyer’s market in many parts of the GTA as the ratio of sales to new listings continues to slide amid an ongoing housing correction, a new report from a major Canadian bank says.

In a report released on Thursday, RBC assistant chief economist Robert Hogue said that while “demand-supply conditions look reasonably balanced nationwide” that is not the case in many of the country’s most expensive real estate markets in Ontario and British Columbia.

He said that in Toronto, Ottawa, Niagara Region, Hamilton, London, Victoria, Vancouver and the Fraser Valley the ratio of sales to listings is now hovering around 0.40, which is the threshold below where “buyers historically have had more sway on prices.”

Hogue predicts that because of that buyers “will succeed in further reversing some of the earlier outsized price gains in Ontario and BC in the near term,” even if the slide in prices starts to stabilize nationally where the ratio is closer to 0.50.

His report comes just two weeks after Re/Max warned that housing prices in the GTA could drop nearly 12 per cent in 2023.

“It’s no surprise to see some of the larger price declines taking place in these markets,” Hogue said of Ontario and BC. “Since the peak earlier this year, the MLS Home Price Index has plummeted in Cambridge (-21 %), London (-19%), Kitchener-Waterloo (-19%), Brantford (-18%), Hamilton-Burlington (-18%), Kawartha Lakes (-17%), Barrie (-17%), Chilliwack (-16%) and the Fraser Valley (-13%). Property values also fell markedly in the GTA (-12%) and to a lesser extent in the Greater Vancouver Area (-6 %).”

The average price of a home across all property types in the GTA peaked at $1,334,062 in February but has fallen by approximately 19 per cent since then amid an aggressive campaign by the Bank of Canada to hike interest rates.

In his report, Hogue said that while the slowing of the pace of price declines in recent months is likely a sign that the “market downturn has run most of its course” its unlikely that things will “heat up again in short order,” especially in costlier markets in Ontario and BC.

“Higher interest rates and stretched affordability will continue to challenge buyers for some time. This will keep activity quiet for a while longer even if it stabilizes near current levels. We think benchmark prices will keep trending lower until spring,” he warned.

The latest report from RBC comes after the Bank of Canada hiked interest rates for a seventh consecutive time earlier this month.

The central bank has indicated that it will be closely studying inflation and employment data going forward and may be at or close to the end of its rate hiking cycle.

But most experts agree that the cost of borrowing is, nonetheless, likely to remain elevated for at least 2023.

The Bank of Canada’s key overnight lending rate is already at its highest point since 2008.

“We think the massive interest rate hikes and loss of affordability over the past year will hold back buyers into 2023, keeping prices on a downward trajectory in the near term,” Hogue said.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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