Starting in July, the real estate industry is bracing for a sweeping shake-up thanks to a $418 million settlement offered by the National Association of Realtors to overhaul its long-entrenched commission structure for agents and pay compensation to the sellers and real estate brokerages who sued.
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Real estate market on P.E.I. shows only slight signs of cooling – CBC.ca
There are signs P.E.I.’s red-hot real estate market could be starting to cool — but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be any easier to break into the Island’s competitive real estate market.
Nationally, the market showed signs of cooling in March as both the number of homes sold and the average selling price declined compared to the previous month. But that’s not the case on P.E.I.
“The flattening hasn’t necessarily hit us yet here,” said James Marjerrison, the newly minted president of the P.E.I. Real Estate Association.
“But I would not be surprised, with rising interest rates and record highs, that there would be a bit of a flattening period — I just haven’t seen that just yet.”
The latest stats show prices continue to rise, for now. According to the P.E.I. Real Estate Association, of the 194 homes or units that sold on P.E.I. in April, the average price was a record $414,742, up more than 20 per cent from April 2021.
Low inventory
Despite those record prices, there were fewer homes sold in April on P.E.I. — almost 23 per cent fewer compared to last April’s all-time record sales. During the first four months of 2022, there were nine per cent fewer home sales than the same period last year.
That’s because, in part, there were fewer homes available to sell — what agents call low inventory. The number of new listings on the Island in April, at 265, was down more than 17 per cent from April 2021.
None of which is good news for buyers hoping the market cools so they can buy their first home or move up to a larger home.
“If housing prices were to fall a bit or if there was a bit of a correction, you might think that it could make it more affordable for people getting into the market,” said Marjerrison.
“But if interest rates continue to rise, that could put more pressure on affordability in terms of the monthly payment and the stress test, so that could level it off.”
Buyers might need to come up with a bigger down payment to keep their monthly mortgage commitments more manageable considering the higher interest rates, he explained.
“It’s a bit of a shell game when you’re juggling interest rates and house prices.”
‘Blessing and a curse’
Shaun Cathcart, a senior economist with the Canadian Real Estate Association who spoke to CBC P.E.I. from his home in Ottawa, said prices are rising more slowly than they were a year ago, which represents “a very slow topping out.”
“Our forecast is for things to sort of flatten out and to some extent … they kind of have been,” he said.
The spike in mortgage rates in March saw more expensive markets in Canada cooling quickly in April.
“Not so much in P.E.I.,” Cathcart explained. “More affordable markets tend to be more immune to interest rate increases like this.”
The wild card for the Maritime provinces of P.E.I., New Brunswick and Nova Scotia is buyers coming from outside the region who have just sold their homes in a hot market, and have plenty of money to spend, he said. They don’t care about mortgage rates, he said, because homes are still comparatively very affordable.
“It’s a blessing and a curse that it can keep activity going at a higher level than you’re seeing elsewhere in Canada, where we’ve seen some big slowdowns, but it’s also not great for locals competing for an almost record-low inventory of homes for sale.”
‘Going to make it worse’
Marjerrison said he has heard from potential buyers who have decided to keep renting until real estate prices come down.
If Cathcart’s predictions hold true, those buyers could be waiting a very long time.
In fact, he said the current market could make it even more difficult for locals who’ve been priced out of the market in the last few years.
“I think it’s going to make it worse,” Cathcart said.
“Typically what happens when markets slow down is you get a disconnect between buyers and sellers: sellers still want what the house across the street sold for last year, and buyers are not able to offer as much, or not willing to, and so what happens is the transaction doesn’t happen.”
Low inventories will rebuild as those homes sit on the market longer, he said, and prices will eventually flatten.
Affordability is going to come by way of decreasing the scarcity of homes.— Shaun Cathcart— Shaun Cathcart
“You go from everything selling to multiple offers, to the nicest homes still getting their asking prices and some of the other ones sitting around,” he said.
“That’s what I would expect: a flattening out of prices and a more normal number of sales. And that’s what our forecast is for most places in Canada.”
Mortgage rates will drive the change, Cathcart said. Bank rates that were 3.3 per cent last month have risen almost a full percentage point in one month, to 4.1 per cent.
“The market’s getting out in front of what the Bank of Canada is expected to do, which is to go from the overnight rate of one per cent right now to close to three per cent by the end of this year,” he said.
Fixed mortgage rates at banks have already priced in that prediction, he said.
The good news is if you are looking for a mortgage now, interest rates are unlikely to rise much more, he believes.
“It’s just going to be the variable rates playing catch-up with that over the rest of the year,” he said.
‘It’s going to increase inequality’
The combination of all these factors will hit first-time buyers the hardest.
Homeowners have had several years of building huge amounts of equity in their homes, Cathcart said, which means those looking to move will continue to outbid first-timers.
“If anything, it’s going to increase inequality, which is already terrible,” he said. “Where the haves can continue to have and move around, and the have-nots, it just makes it harder for them to acquire their first home … It’s unfortunate.”
Cathcart said CREA has been encouraging politicians to invest more in new housing. It’s the only way they see the housing crunch being alleviated, he said, but it’s easier said than done.
He believes the key is higher-density multi-unit development such as townhouses with “less space for cars and more space for people.”
“Affordability is going to come by way of decreasing the scarcity of homes, because the population is just going to keep on increasing” with international immigration, he said.
The scarcity of homes in turn has put, and will continue to put, pressure on rental markets, Cathcart said, and price low-income Canadians out of even renting.
“Maybe it’s a little bit depressing … but these are things we have to think about,” he said.
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Drew and Jonathan Scott of HGTV’s new series “Backed by the Bros” — also known as the Property Brothers — spoke with Quartz for the latest installment of our “What’s Next for…?” video series.
Watch the interview above and check out the transcript below. The transcript of this conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
ANDY MILLS (AM): Interest rates are now above 7%. What effect is this having on the work you guys are doing and what do you see is next in the real estate industry?
DREW SCOTT (DS): A lot of crying. That’s what’s happening. Even the tough thing is anybody who’s looking to, you know, refi or anybody who’s looking to pull equity out of their home, it’s a tough time because you’re not getting what you wanted with the high rates. Granted, it looks like things are coming down a little bit, but this has been forcing people to try and find other ways to create more opportunity to get access to money like converting a garage into an ADU, having a renter in there. A lot of people are becoming landlords for the first time in their lives
JONATHAN SCOTT (JS): And in reality there’s still a huge opportunity for people if they’re looking to invest. They’re looking to, you know, pull a little bit of money out. 7% is not bad. It’s not great, but it’s not bad. But it is sort of at that tipping point where you want to be a little more cautious with what you’re putting your money toward and how much money, how much leveraging you’re doing. And so that’s what we say. There’s opportunity to do well. There’s opportunity to make money in real estate. You just have to be careful.
DS: I just cry for those people who had locked in at like 3% and now they’re coming back out and they’re like, oh God, it’s over doubling right now. But you know, c’est la vie, you just gotta be careful with real estate.
Read more: Mortgage rates are rising again as inflation fears mount
AM: Yeah. So for the folks that bought at 3%, they’re saying that they’re not selling. How will this or how is this affecting them?
DS: Well, that’s the thing. The people that can’t afford a seven or 8% interest rate, they’re gonna have to sell if they can’t afford it. Because you can’t just be like, ‘No, my term is up and I refuse to get a higher interest rate loan.’ You have to finance somehow, unless you have cash to-
JS: Or a money tree in your backyard.
DS: A money tree in your backyard. Yeah.
JS: We saw that happen back in 2008. We saw that happen. There are some people who just over-leverage and they don’t realize that this is when it becomes a problem when your mortgage is up for real and your rate is going up. And so you have to always give yourself that little bit of a pad to make sure that you’re covered.
DS: That’s what our whole new show Backed by the Bros, it’s all about this. It’s all about people who have wanted to try and get into real estate a little bit more. They want to invest, they want to try and provide more for their family. And they get in over their heads because they thought real estate investment is pretty straightforward. ‘I watched it on HGTV, I can do it.’ And so they jump in and all of a sudden they’re over leveraged and they need help to get out.
JS: One of the clients put a hundred grand on their credit card so that they could service the debt they needed to for this property. And we’re like, at what rate? And it was like insane double digits. I’m like, you’re, you are gonna lose everything. And literally it was one of the couples, they had already spent their kids’ college fund their own personal savings. They were totally beeped. Yeah. And so we had to come in and we really, we put our reputation on the line. We use all our resources and we get the project done so they can start having that money come back in.
AM: Yeah. Backed by the Bros on HGTV June 5th.
JS: Oh, wow. Yes. You’ve done research.
DS: You know that off the top of your head. June 5th, 9:00 PM HGTV. But it’s fun for us just to find different ways to inspire people. And I love that people want to get into real estate. I love that people want to try and create more opportunities for themselves. And I also like the idea, you know, with the housing crisis that if you’re looking, whatever city you’re in, there are usually incentives that are helping people get into additional revenue through an ADU through an auxiliary dwelling unit. Having tenants, it’s a great way to sort of offset the crisis as well as help people earn more money.
JS: And there’s a way to have a hell of a lot of fun while you’re doing it. We’re not in this business to use complicated design terms and just bore people that, look, we wanna have fun. We wanna show people that you can really find passion in real estate, but you also have to make sure you’re being smart.
DS: Wait, is ADU a complicated design term?
JS: Yeah. Marginal.
AM: What’s that mean?
DS: It’s like a rental suite if you have like an auxiliary dwelling unit.
AM: Oh yeah.
DS: But it’s a fancy way of saying having a renter turn your garage into something you can rent out.
AM: Gotcha. You guys are seeing people turn in their garages into apartments?
JS: There’s a huge housing crisis all across the country, particularly in the major metropolis cities. And so I do believe that the solution beside finding ways to build new projects, multi-family projects and affordable housing, converting your ADUs, so people putting in basement rental units, people putting in garage conversions, building above their garage for a rental unit. All of these things are incredibly helpful when it comes to solving the housing crisis. And you also like a lot of people, ‘cause real estate is so expensive today, especially in places like New York and Los Angeles, imagine having that additional income coming in for you, how it can offset your costs, your bills, your taxes, everything. It’s pretty incredible.
AM: In Backed by the Bros, you guys are looking at a lot of troubled investments. So you mentioned credit cards being one of the mistakes you can make. What’s another mistake you guys are seeing over and over again?
DS: Well, we constantly, with a lot of the different episodes that we have of different families and investors that we worked with, they’re jumping in before they have any sort of a plan. One homeowner bought all of the appliances and cabinets and everything she could use for a project before she even had the house and knew what she was doing with it. So in the end, she had stuff that was not ideal and she just tried to make it work. Well, you’re not gonna get your optimal rent if you have a suboptimal place for somebody to rent.
JS: Also, whenever I hear somebody say, I’m gonna run my own construction project, I’ll GC myself instantly, I’m like, red flag. Yeah. Because if you have never GC’d before, you have no clue what you’re doing. And as soon as one of your subs falls out, everything slows down, comes to a crashing halt. And so you got, you gotta be realistic. Hire professionals to come in. You’re gonna pay a little bit more for some of this stuff, but it’s worth it in the end because you will save money.
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The NAR got a further blow on April 5, when a federal court cleared the way for the Justice Department to reopen an antitrust probe into the group and its rules regarding home-sale commissions.
While the settlement awaits final approval later in the year, a preliminary sign-off by a federal judge on Tuesday means that the outcome is highly likely. In addition, the NAR has already started planning to change some of its policies starting this summer. Although these will likely affect home buyers more than sellers, both sides will have to make some adjustments, including how they work with agents.
High interest rates provide little incentive for holders of low fixed rates to move, dampening supply and helping to drive up prices.
Published Apr 25, 2024 • Last updated 18 minutes ago • 3 minute read
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Calgary’s already hot resale real estate market is forecast to keep booming for the rest of the year, a new report on price growth suggests. The recent Royal LePage report predicted that the average price of a home in Calgary will jump eight per cent by year’s end, capping off another year of strong growth.
Yet the current real estate boom is different from past ones, says a local realtor.
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“The lack of supply has driven prices upwards,” says Corinne Lyall, broker/owner of Royal LePage Benchmark.
While short supply is not all that different from past boom markets, a key reason for low inventory is, she adds.
“Interest rates having increased in the last two years negatively affected homeowners,” Lyall says.
Typically as prices rise, move-up buyers list their home, but that is not happening to the same extent this time.
“Many may not want to move because they may still be holding onto a low interest rate for their mortgage,” Lyall adds.
Many are likely reluctant to sell because they are locked into fixed-rate mortgages at about two per cent compared with the current market fixed rates at about five per cent.
In turn, they have low motivation to move until rates move lower, she notes.
The overall low supply paired with rising demand from record migration to the city factor into Royal LePage’s prediction that the average price could reach $716,580 by the end of 2024. Already, the average price has grown nearly 10 per cent by the end of March, versus the same time last year, to about $674,000.
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Demand for single-family detached homes remains a notable factor in the market, with Royal LePage highlighting that the average price in March was $774,000, an increase of about 10 per cent year over year.
Other segments are seeing rising demand, too, in part because single-family homes are increasingly pricey, and affordable ones are in short supply, Lyall says.
To that end, the Royal LePage study notes the average condominium price by the end of March was $264,800, up nearly nine per cent from the same time last year. Calgary Real Estate Board statistics from March also reflect rising demand for apartment and row. Both saw the highest percentage gains in benchmark price year over year.
Apartments grew more than 17 per cent to $337,700, while row increased more than 20 per cent to reach $448,700.
All segments are seeing higher prices amid dwindling supply and high demand, marking a shift in focus on affordability amid higher borrowing costs, Lyall says.
Still, single-family detached homes remain the most active segment, accounting for about 44 per cent of all sales in March. Its share is decreasing as prices rise. As of mid-April, for example, the average price was $793,713, up 10 per cent year over year, according to CREB.
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“It’s sort of a chicken and the egg thing,” says realtor Mark Neustaedter with eXp Realty in Calgary.
Inventory is low because of high demand, but it is not increasing because sellers worry about being able to find a home due to low inventory, he further explains.
New listings have been rising, up nearly 13 per cent for all housing types, CREB mid-April numbers show, but active listings have fallen 17 per cent.
Notably in March, housing supply fell 29 per cent to less than one month, the lowest level in more than a decade. Although far below the all-time record of 4,107 transactions in March 2022, the 2,664 resales this year still were the fourth highest strongest for March since 2010.
Yet even amid a strong seller’s market, price still matters because borrowing costs remain elevated, Neustaedter notes.
“Over-priced homes will still not sell, even in this hot market.”
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