Real eState
Real estate sales forecast to fall by a third in B.C. this year as interest rates rise – CBC.ca
The B.C. Real Estate Association is forecasting that the number of home sales will have dropped by more than a third this year compared to the record highs of 2021, and sales will keep dropping into next year as well.
The BCREA says the slowdown is a result of rising interest rates as well as an end to pandemic-induced conditions that saw many buyers driven by a desire for more space and the ability to work remotely.
“When interest rates rise rapidly into the levels they have, it’s going to have a major impact,” BCREA chief economist Brendon Ogmundson said.
The fourth-quarter forecast anticipates that 82,345 units will be sold in 2022, down 34.4 per cent from last year. The current forecast for 2023 is another 11.4 per cent drop to 72,960 units sold.
Ogmundson argued that the cooling market is “a lot healthier” than the overheated one B.C. has seen in recent years, allowing buyers more time to decide and more choices to pick from.
Tsur Somerville, a professor of real estate finance at the University of B.C., said that markets across North America are seeing a sharp decline in home sales right now. That’s been accompanied by a slight drop in prices, at least in B.C.
“The challenge for first-time buyers is that even though prices are falling with the increases in interest rates, that doesn’t necessarily help folks because … the payments for any given price level are going up,” he said.
Somerville added that further economic slowdowns expected in the coming months should cool the market even further.
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NANAIMO – Calm start to the year indicates a great time to buy
In January, 46 single-family homes sold in Nanaimo, down 33 per cent from December and 26 per cent from the previous year.
Active listings of single-family homes on the Mid-Island rose 108 per cent year-over-year, but dropped by 4 per cent from December.
The average price for a single-family home in Nanaimo was $795,527 in January, a 23 per cent drop from last year.
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MONTREAL — The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal’s January home sales fell to a level not seen since 2009 as the market slowdown continued.
The association says last month’s sales totalled 1,791, down 36 per cent from 2,816 in January 2022.
Charles Brant, the association’s market analysis director, says these numbers mean activity is approaching a historic low for the month of January and come as rising interest rates are weighing on homebuyers.
He says first-time homebuyers in particular are taking a cautious wait-and-see attitude despite recent drops in prices.
The median price of a single-family home edged down seven per cent to $500,000 year over year, while condos dipped three per cent to $370,000 and plexes dropped six per cent to $675,000.
As median prices fell so did new listings, which hit 4,598 compared with 4,808 a year ago.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 7, 2023.
The Canadian Press
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Statistics Canada released data last week revealing 23.3 per cent of B.C. homeowners are also investors in the market. The Vancouver census metropolitan area (CMA) had an overall investment rate in condominiums and houses of 21.3 per cent.
“Investors often get kind of painted as speculators who are out to buy up housing and do nothing with it, or flippers or any other kind of pejorative terms that we add to investors. But what this data shows, and what’s good to understand, is that they’ve really invested a lot in a primary rental in Canada,” said Brendon Ogmundson. “A lot of the rental units that are being provided are smaller investors who own one unit and are renting it out.”
Statistics Canada defines an investor as an “owner who owns at least one residential property that is not used as their primary place of residence.”
In B.C., 73 per cent of properties with multiple dwellings were owner-occupied investment properties. Investor-occupants are more common in the province, making up 9.6 per cent of owners.
This is due to a higher proportion of properties with multiple residential units – 11.7 per cent – such as laneway units or basement suites, according Statistics Canada. The national statistics agency said these types of units are more likely to be owner-occupied.
“So many owners in B.C. have chosen to also be landlords by renting out their basement suites or laneway houses and it’s way, way different than any other province in this dataset,” Ogmundson said.
Statistics Canada data breaking down homeowners by investor-type.
The region of Greater Vancouver A or Electoral Area A, which includes the University Endowment Lands, Barnston Island, Howe Sound communities, Indian Arm and Pitt Lake communities, had a higher proportion of houses and condominium apartments used as an investment at 42.1 per cent compared with the rest of the region.
The City of Vancouver had a lower proportion at 32.5 per cent.
This difference is attributed to students attending the University of British Columbia, who are more likely to be renters or live in a second property owned by a family member, according to Statistics Canada.
The proportion of condominium apartments owned for investment purposes by non-resident investors was the highest in B.C. among the provinces – seven per cent.
The rate of condominium apartments used as investment was lower in the Vancouver CMA (34 per cent) than the rest of the province.
Across B.C., non-residents and out-of-province investors owned 43,890 houses used as an investment. This number was typically higher in areas near the Alberta border.
Out-of-province investors owned 1.6 per cent of homes in B.C., while in-province investors accounted for 9.8 per cent of all investors.
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