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Is The Real Estate Market Slowing Down Due To Mortgage Rates?

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Key Takeaways

  • Mortgage rates have nearly tripled since this time a year ago.
  • However, housing prices have continued to rise, making new mortgages unaffordable.
  • Overall, the result is a 41% decline in new loan applications year-over-year.

Over the past year, rising inflation and the Fed boosting interest rates in response have caused turmoil in the housing market. Little more than a year ago, mortgage rates were near record lows. Now, they are around 7%, two to three times higher.

While some markets have seen housing prices fall in response, in most cases, the drop hasn’t been sufficient to keep mortgage payments for new purchases similar. All of this has resulted in higher housing costs for buyers.

We’ll cover what you need to know about mortgage trends for the month and where things might go in the next year.

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Background

The COVID-19 pandemic shocked the economy as millions lost their jobs and activity quickly ground down to a halt. The government responded with a combination of stimulus payments and lowered interest rates.

During the pandemic, mortgage rates hit all-time lows, reaching 2.65% in January 2021.

As the country exited the COVID recession and pandemic restrictions eased, inflation began to rise due to factors such as a tight labor market and supply chain issues. Inflation peaked in June 2022 at 9.1%.

In response, the Federal Reserve has boosted its benchmark interest rate to 3.75% to 4% from 0% earlier this year. This has caused mortgage rates to spike.

Mortgage Demand

As interest rates rise, monthly loan payments become more expensive and less affordable without a commensurate drop in housing prices, which has not materialized in many markets.

Mortgage demand has declined in 2022. Applications for new loans have dropped by roughly 41% since one year ago, and refinancing applications are down more than 86%.

December appears to show a continuation of that trend. The last week of November saw a 0.8% reduction in mortgage applications compared to the week prior. December is traditionally a slow month for home sales, exacerbating the issue most likely.

Rates

Outside of economic uncertainty and concerns about an oncoming recession, the massive increase in mortgage rates is one of the top reasons mortgage demand has dropped.

Interest rates reached a low of 2.65% in early 2021 and remained relatively low for an extended period, hovering between 2.75% and 3.25% for about a year.

As inflation rose, the Federal Reserve responded by raising its benchmark rates, which increased home loan rates. For the week of December 1st, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the U.S. was 6.49%.

This is far below historic highs, which reached over 18% back in the early 1980s. However, the last time rates exceeded 6% was in 2008, meaning these rates have not been seen for almost 15 years.

The impact that rate increases have on housing prices is immense.

Imagine you have a thirty-year mortgage with a balance of $250,000. At an interest rate of 2.5%, you’d pay $988 each month for a total of $355,680. Overall, you’d pay over $105,000 in interest.

At an interest rate of 7.5%, your monthly payment balloons to $1,748. That means a total loan payment of $629,280 that includes more than $375,000 in interest over the life of the loan.

Today, families need to afford a monthly payment roughly double what they needed a year ago to afford a home of the same price.

Home Prices

In general, as interest rates rise, house prices tend to fall. This can soften the blow of higher rates forcing higher loan payments on new buyers.

Unfortunately, price reductions have yet to materialize for homebuyers as home prices have risen through 2022.

In the first quarter of 2022, the average home sold for $514,100. In Q3, the average home sold for $542,900. This roughly 5% increase is less than inflation, meaning housing got slightly cheaper.

However, many people have not seen wage increases in line with inflation, meaning affordability has not improved.

Renters are also feeling the burden, with rents up 7.8% year-over-year. This means that everyone who still needs to get their rate locked in is dealing with less affordable housing than a year ago.

Is it a good time to buy or sell?

If you own a home and want to sell it or you are looking to buy a home, you might wonder whether now is the right time. The answer is that nobody really knows.

The Federal Reserve has boosted interest rates in response to rising inflation. The Fed may continue on this path by pushing rates even higher, or it may ease off the accelerator if inflation starts to fall.

It’s also uncertain whether housing prices can continue to increase at their current clip. Many major banks and real estate firms are predicting falling prices over the next year. The decline in mortgage applications indicates less demand, which may force price reductions.

If you’re trying to buy, you’re gambling that the Fed will stop boosting rates or that reduced demand from buyers will force motivated sellers to slash home prices.

However, if you’re on the other side of the equation, you’re likely hoping the Fed will stop increasing interest rates, making the mortgage payments on more expensive homes more affordable.

You also have to hope that fears of a recession don’t become true, leading to fewer potential buyers for your home.

Bottom Line

Buying a home is an essential part of the American Dream. Understandably, it feels out of reach for many of us right now. Recent increases in interest rates, with little change in housing prices, have put this out of reach for man. The fall in mortgage applications illustrates that.

For investors, tracking the real estate market is essential. Even if you’re not looking to buy a house, a weakening real estate market can give you an excellent opportunity to purchase land-focused investments at a discount.

If you are trying to buy a house, you need to monitor home affordability and keep your other investments liquid enough to make a down payment on short notice.

Q.ai takes the guesswork out of investing, while keeping your assets relatively liquid. Until you’re ready to make your purchase, our artificial intelligence will scour the markets for the best investments for all manner of risk tolerances and economic situations. We also diversify your investments by bundling them up in Investment Kits that make investing both simple and strategic.

Best of all, you can activate Portfolio Protection at any time to protect your gains and reduce your losses, no matter what industry you invest in.

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Will the NAR, U.S. case impact the CREA lawsuit in Canada? – Business in Vancouver

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Two North American court cases are taking the real estate industry to task over commissions paid out to Realtors.

While the Canadian lawsuit has the potential shake B.C.’s housing market, experts don’t agree on what the fallout might mean just yet.

“The fundamental issue … is that there’s a belief that a buyer’s agent will steer their client to listings that have higher commissions offered by the listing agent,” said Tom Davidoff, an associate professor at the UBC Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate.

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“Somebody who buyers are trusting should be looking out for the buyer’s best interest, not shopping offered commissions. So anything that can be done to avoid that, I think is helpful.”

A proposed class-action lawsuit filed in January alleges that the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), alongside dozens of provincial and local real estate groups “conspired, agreed or arranged with each other to fix, maintain, increase or control the price for the supply of buyer brokerage services for residential real estate.”

South of the border, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) agreed two weeks ago to a $418-million settlement, as well as changes to the standard six per cent sales commission. This brings an end to a lawsuit that accused the industry association of artificially inflating real estate agent commissions.

“This is about fair play between participants in the real estate industry and in the public, and these rules are just not fair,” said lawyer Garth Myers, a partner at Toronto-based Kalloghlian Myers LLP, who filed the proposed class-action lawsuit in Canada.

There are 10 B.C. real estate boards named in the Canadian suit and eight brokerages.

Myers said that changes to the standard commission in the NAR case “eviscerates any defence that the Canadian defendants will have in relation to the necessity of these rules.”

“The fact that NAR walked away from these rules in the States, we think is very important,” he said.

“The main defence that we expect in Canada … is that these rules are so important to the proper functioning of the system, the whole system would break down in their absence. And the fact that the NAR was able to walk away from these rules in a system that is virtually identical, is proof positive that this system can function just fine without them.”

Trevor Koot, CEO of the British Columbia Real Estate Association, said that there is no question that the NAR case has captured the attention of the real estate industry and Canadian consumers. 

“Canada however, is a different country with a differing legal and business framework than the US. As the CREA has indicated, they deem the case in Canada to be without merit,” he said in an email to BIV

In Canada, real estate commissions can vary from three per cent to seven per cent of the sale price, however, there is no set commission or standard. However, because this is a percentage of what a home sells for, as home prices rise so too is the price of commission, said Myers.

“People are queued up to be upset about anything to do with the real estate market, mostly because housing is a human need and there’s a lot of people who see themselves at risk of not having the housing that’s going to make them reasonably happy,” said Davidoff.

“I don’t think this litigation is really fundamentally about housing affordability.”

If successful, Myers said that the case will put money into the pockets of sellers who have overpaid for commissions.

“I think it will make it less costly to buy and sell real estate generally. Will that have a downstream effect on the buyer? I don’t know. But we’re seeking to represent sellers and that’s who we’re acting on behalf [of],” he said.

When it comes to whether or not the CREA lawsuit will result in lower home prices, Davidoff said that it may not be the case.

“If there’s more homes on the market, there’s lower prices, but the people who are selling their homes are very likely moving to another owner-occupied unit. It’s not common for people to transition from owning to renting. So the net increase in houses available isn’t great and with more transactions, usually prices are actually higher,” he said.

“Buyers may have to start compensating Realtors out of their own pocket. I don’t see this as a win for first-time buyers. … This is not a silver bullet or magic carpet ride to affordability.”

This is not the first time that the Canadian Real Estate Association or other real estate boards across the country have been challenged when it comes to commissions.

A 1988 order of prohibition from the federal government’s Competition Bureau states that the CREA and all real estate boards that are members of the association are prohibited “from fixing, establishing, maintaining, suggesting or controlling in any manner commission rates or fees for MLS.”

“The real estate industry at various times in various forms, both here and in the U.S., has faced various legal actions on that. And usually the end of these agreements [is] not to do that, but the world doesn’t seem to change much. Every once in a while somebody comes along with a new law, a new lawsuit, a new government action,” said Ron Usher, general counsel for the Society of Notaries Public of B.C.

“It’s a front-page story that’s been going on for 30 years.”

The Competition Bureau said it is aware of the proposed class-action lawsuit.

“We remain focused on ensuring that consumers benefit from innovation and competition in the provision of real estate services and will take action whenever we find evidence of conduct that is prohibited by the Competition Act,” the agency said in an email to BIV.

Andrew Carros, managing broker of Engel and Völkers in Vancouver, said that he is not concerned about the case and that for him, nothing changes.

“It doesn’t worry me one little bit, because I have always disclosed agency, my clients know exactly what I get paid, they understand my value. … In fact, it gives guys like me the ability to be able to explain this better and be able to get better documents out there,” he said.

Oakwyn Realty Ltd. broker Steve Saretsky said that while there is some uncertainty among real estate agents, it’s too soon to tell what the impacts will be.

“People are drawing massive conclusions, but I don’t think we know enough yet,” he said.

“What’s going to happen is you’ll probably see a bunch of different business models coming out of it, lower fee structures, things of that nature.”

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Editor’s note: This story has been updated to include comments from Trevor Koot. 

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NAR settlement explained: Why Realtors like me are scrambling

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One of my favorite “Modern Family” episodes depicts the hilarity and nonsense of a real estate agent’s daily life as Phil Dunphy rattles off deed restrictions and the proper pronunciation of the word “Realtor” (real-TOR).

A registered trademark of its originator, Realtor is a title only real estate agents who pay membership to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) are allowed to boast.

Today, after more than 10 years as one myself, the “Realtor” prestige has lost its allure.

Just when it felt like NAR was bouncing back after a sexual harassment scandal in 2023, we real estate agents and brokers now find ourselves in the aftermath of this month’s multimillion dollar NAR settlement.

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While I am nervous about what these NAR settlement changes mean for my residential real estate business and community, I am pleased that we’re all turning our eyes and ears to a company whose pockets have gotten too big and too dark for too long.

But enough about NAR.

Brokers, their agents and our local associations are scrambling to decide how to restructure serving residential buyers fairly without undervaluing our work. It feels a bit like a bomb just went off, and we’re running up to each other screaming, “Can you hear me talking? Are you talking? What are we going to do about this?!”

We have only until mid-July to figure it out.

Here’s what we know now: Buyer broker compensation is no longer allowed to be included on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). And buyers are now required to sign a Buyer Representation Agreement, which includes the buyer broker’s compensation.

Real estate agents are worth it. So how do we get paid?

Buyer services are harder and more unpredictable, I think, than seller services (even in a buyer’s market!). Some buyer clients take years to find a property, while others take only a few weeks.

The stories we agents could tell would make anyone roll with laughter or cry – probably both. Being a real estate agent is like a reality TV show. How will we divide our whole job into billable hours? Billable tasks?

As an agent, I’m not only giving advice about market data and negotiating terms for sale. I’m also an on-call therapist, a babysitter, an interior designer, a cleaner, an exterminator … agents gladly do an endless list of tasks for our clients. Just ask your favorite agent what she keeps in her car for emergencies!

One thing I can predict with much certainty: Buyers will have to do more work to buy a property in the future. Private tours will be less common and replaced by 3D tours, video tours and open houses. Buyers might also have to meet with their inspectors, contractors and others without their agent.

Maybe buyers really will do it all themselves without losing money.

Buying a house?Don’t go it alone. A real estate agent can make all the difference.

If you’re hoping to buy in the next three months, my recommendation would be to close by July 1. Most first-time homebuyers have no idea what has happened or how it will affect their ability to negotiate.

In the past week, I’ve had to explain the NAR settlement to every friend, neighbor and client outside the industry. I can only tell you that we’re all racing to get it figured out by the time it does affect everyone.

NAR settlement explained: How will this impact home sellers and real estate prices?

Seller-paid buyer broker commissions were created with equitable rights to good representation in mind. Specifically, so that first-time buyers could afford to have a fair negotiation, instead of being swept under the rug by a seller’s agent signed to protect the seller (a law in most states).

My heart breaks for those sellers who were swindled into commissions. As much as I’d like to blame NAR, this error is also on agents, brokers and local boards who clearly violated our ethical code. It’s maddening to watch agents and brokers feed right into the stereotype that real estate agents are lazy and just in it for the biggest paychecks.

So, who will pay the buyer’s agent now, and how will this affect home prices?

Real estate prices:Will home prices fall after Realtor lawsuit settlement? You shouldn’t count on it.

It’s commonly acknowledged that the 5-6% sales commission was “baked into” the sales price. Investor agents and builders have been using low-to-zero percent buyer broker commissions as leverage for years.

While I do think that 5-6% sales commissions will be a thing of the past, there is a chance that sellers will find a way to simply advertise buyer broker commissions through a different medium. This compromise walks a fine line with the new restriction.

Seller-paid “buyer credits” is my favorite idea bumping around. Buyer credits would be offered on the listing, and could be distributed as the buyer sees fit at the closing table. The buyer could use the funds for themselves, their broker or both.

If buyers are responsible for the buyer broker commission on top of other purchasing costs, the sales prices will have to come down. Lower sales prices should not affect the sellers’ net proceeds in this instance, since the sales price deficit should roughly mirror the now absent buyer broker’s commission.

In short, even though most sellers think they should be celebrating now, these new rules probably won’t affect sellers much, if at all, once the dust settles.

What does the NAR settlement mean for buyers?

Gone are the “Let’s go tour this house for fun!” days.

A signed Buyer Representation Agreement is now required before a property showing. This has always been best practice. For some states this will be a big change.

For example, I usually complete a buyer consultation and one or two property tours before requiring a buyer’s agreement. I do this to be sure we’re a good match for each other. A successful client-agent squad requires a lot of trust and a common communication style.

Take the tours off the table, and I think things will get awkward. Now I spend one hour with a potential buyer and then prompt, “So do you trust me to guide you through your biggest life purchase? Sign here.” I’m sure thankful many of my clients are referrals.

How will the commission change impact real estate agents in 2024?

The part-time agents and small brokerages will likely diminish over time, which will either be great or horrible for the industry. Agents will have to do more with less, and our 60 to 70 hour work week will feel impossible without high sales volume.

Once in escrow, the brunt of the work usually lands on the buyer’s agent, too. If there are more transactions without buyer’s agents, then the seller’s agent will have to pick up the slack.

Emily Ross

I often joke that as a 1099 real estate agent, I’m either overpaid or underpaid on each property. Still, my annual income mashes up into a worthwhile sum despite the work-life balance.

Without that 2-3% buyer’s commission propping up half my income, I am not sure the 11:30 p.m. phone calls, 6 a.m. texts, missing my daughter’s basketball game for an impromptu showing, and never having paid time off or maternity leave will be worth it.

Maybe I ought to go back to copywriting.

It feels like most brokers and Realtor associations are strategizing how to make the buyer agent obsolete with new technologies. I think they’re focusing on the wrong solution, but that’s a story for another day.

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A settlement in a U.S. lawsuit could upend the cornerstone of real estate industry: commissions

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The cost of selling a home in the United States may be about to change dramatically.

A real estate trade group has agreed to a landmark deal to drop what was once a cornerstone of the industry: the six per cent sales commission paid to agents.

In Canada, two lawsuits filed against various real estate bodies want the courts to come to the same conclusion and force wholesale change in the way Realtors charge their fees when a home is sold.

“We got here by a cartel of brokerages and real estate associations that control the rules, and they’ve done it for a very long time,” said Garth Myers, a litigator with Toronto law firm Kalloghlian Myers.

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He filed the proposed class-action lawsuits in Federal Court on behalf of plaintiffs who allege that the Canadian Real Estate Association, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board and several local brokerages and franchisors conspired to set fees and illegally drive up the price of real estate commissions.

At the heart of both the U.S. and Canadian cases is the opaque way in which real estate agents charge their fees.

Lawsuits revolve around Competition Act

In Canada, there are different fee structures in different jurisdictions. In Ontario, for example, a commission of five per cent of a home’s sale price is split between the buyer’s and seller’s agents.

With the average price of a Toronto home at $1,225,000 last month, Realtor fees would amount to $61,250.

In Vancouver, Realtors charge seven per cent on the first $100,000 of the sale price, and between 2.5 and three per cent on the balance. So agents would split between $29,500 and $34,000 in fees on a $1-million home.

A real estate 'For Sale' sign outside a single-family home.
In Canada, there are different fee structures for real estate agents in different jurisdictions. In Vancouver, Realtors charge seven per cent on the first $100,000 of the sale price, and between 2.5 and three per cent on the balance. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

In the U.S., agents generally charge a commission of five or six per cent.

But what is common among those different jurisdictions is that the fee paid to the buyer’s agent is baked into the price of the home, while a seller can negotiate with their agent and get a better fee.

A potential buyer can look up the details of a home on something called the Multiple Listing Service (MLS). The listing includes everything they would want to know about a property — from size and taxes to upgrades and amenities — but it doesn’t disclose the amount a buyer will pay in Realtor fees.

Myers said the existing system enables agents to steer clients away from homes that aren’t paying the full commission.

“It’s clear to us that consumers are being ripped off, it’s clear to us that the rules elevate the cost of buyer brokerage commissions,” he said. “Now the open question that the court is going to have to resolve is whether this is criminal conduct under the Competition Act. And that’s what we’re fighting about in court.”

It will likely take years before the cases are resolved.

WATCH | How sweeping U.S. real estate changes could impact Canada:

How sweeping U.S real estate changes could impact Canada

15 hours ago

Duration 6:22

A landmark legal settlement is upending the U.S. real estate market. CBC’s Peter Armstrong breaks down the possible ripple effects for home buyers and sellers in Canada.

U.S. industry pushes back

In the U.S., there is already fierce disagreement over what the court settlement — which ends legal claims from home sellers over real estate commissions — actually means.

On March 15, the day the $418-million US settlement was announced, the National Association of Realtors said fees have always been set by the market, not by collusion among agents. Besides, the group said, those fees have always been negotiable.

“Offers of compensation help make professional representation more accessible, decrease costs for home buyers to secure these services, increase fair housing opportunities, and increase the potential buyer pool for sellers,” the association said in a statement outlining the broad points of the agreement.

Rows of houses are shown in a subdivision.
A housing subdivision is shown in Middlesex Township, Pa., in April 2023. In the U.S., there is disagreement over what the $418-million US court settlement — which ends legal claims from home sellers over real estate commissions — actually means. (Gene J. Puskar/The Associated Press)

Since then, high-profile brokerages have pushed back against the notion that the industry will be forced to change as a result.

“Since the settlement announcement, there have been numerous articles and stories in the media on what this means for buyers and sellers,” Budge Huskey, president and CEO of Premier Sotheby’s International Realty in Naples, Fla., said in a statement released on Tuesday.

“Regrettably, most reflect a profound lack of understanding of the real estate business as well as mistaken claims.”

Huskey said the notion that sellers will no longer pay a fee to the buyer’s agent is simply false.

“There has never been any obligation for a seller to pay buyer agent compensation at any time, yet it has been a historical practice that’s worked exceedingly well since the advent of modern residential real estate,” he said.

Realtors in Canada, such as ReMax, aren’t saying much publicly while the cases work their way through the courts. A spokesperson for the organization would only say that “we do not comment on ongoing litigation.”

U.S. reaction watched closely here

“It’s important to note the litigations in Canada and the U.S. occur in different legal and factual contexts, and the litigations are at a much earlier stage here in Canada,” the Canadian Real Estate Association said in a statement to CBC News, adding that “we’ll continue to review U.S. developments.”

The statement goes on to say that buyers and sellers in Canada “have always been able to negotiate commissions with their agent…. On the buyer side, buyer representation agreements are required in at least seven provinces in Canada. These agreements set out terms like services and fees between an agent and their buyer. This represents more than 80 per cent of homes sold in Canada.”

Real estate experts on this side of the border have been watching the U.S. reaction very closely.

A man with grey hair and a grey beard, wearing a blue overcoat and tie, stands outside a building.
Murtaza Haider, a professor of real estate management at Toronto Metropolitan University, says he thinks the lawsuits in Canada will lead to the same outcome as those in the U.S. because the two real estate systems are so similar. (Pelin Sidiki/CBC)

Murtaza Haider, a professor of real estate management at Toronto Metropolitan University, said the two systems are so similar that he believes the court cases here will lead to the same outcome as those in the U.S.

But, he said, people should temper their expectations.

“We won’t have a system blow up. It’s basically giving the buyer the rights to negotiate with the agent, a commission for the services they may or may not use,” Haider said.

Down the road, he imagines a system where some buyers pay an agent a full commission to help them find a home, figure out a price and close the sale, while others will simply need someone to help them file the paperwork.

Haider warned that there may be some unintended consequences to changing the system. Currently, he said, the fee paid to both the buyer’s and seller’s agents is essentially included in the price of the home. Fees are not an extra closing cost outside the home price.

“Right now it’s baked into the mortgage amount, so you don’t have an out-of-pocket policy. But [if you] have the flexibility and freedom to negotiate, that amount [may be] coming out of your own pocket right away,” Haider said.

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