Real eState
Real Estate Trends: Why Did Mortgage Rates Suddenly Drop?
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Key Takeaways
- Rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped below 7% the first week of November.
- Rates have been moving higher for most of 2022, rising from around 3% to over 7%.
- More inflation and economic data needs to be released to know if inflation is finally cooling down or if this is a one-time event.
Mortgage rates have been rising since the start of 2022, thanks to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to combat inflation. When a recent consumer price index report came in with lower-than-expected inflation, mortgage rates dropped, even though the Fed recently increased rates for the sixth time.
Here is what is happening with mortgage rates and where they might be going in the coming months.
Where mortgage rates stand today
According to Freddie Mac, a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage had an average interest rate of 6.95% for the week ending November 3, 2022. The prior week ending October 27, 2022, saw an average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages of 7.08%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages also saw a drop in interest rates to 6.29% for the week ending November 3rd, down from a 6.36% average the week before.
Because mortgage rates are extremely sensitive to economic data, they tend to move quickly. For the week ending November 10, 2022, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage went back up to 7.08%, and the 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rebounded to 6.38%.
Bankrate’s national survey of lenders shows that as of November 16, 2022, the 30-year fixed rate fell to 6.85% and the 15-year fixed rate fell to 6.13%. The previous week, the 30-year fixed rate stood at 7.08% and the 15-year fixed rate was 6.39%.
The trend of higher rates
Mortgage rates started the year in a period of historic lows. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage was 3.22%, and 2.43% on a 15-year mortgage. But the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in March and by the end of March, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage stood at 4.67%, and the average rate for a 15-year mortgage was 3.83%.
As the Fed continued raising interest rates, mortgage rates climbed higher. They seemingly peaked in late June, with the 30-year hitting 5.81% and the 15-year reaching 4.92%. When inflation data came in lower than expected over the summer, many thought that inflation was finally cooling off and the Fed would ease the pace of raising rates. This sentiment helped to bring mortgage rates down.
In early August, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage was 4.99% and 4.26% for a 15-year mortgage. Things quickly changed with the release of more inflation data showing that inflation was not slowing down. This led to additional rate hikes by the Fed and a steady climb of interest rates to where we stand today.
Why did rates fall?
Mortgage rates are impacted by the federal funds rate, which is the interest rate banks charge each other for lending money. When the Fed increases interest rates, banks’ borrowing costs increase. To offset this rise in costs, they increase the rates on their loan products.
But the fed funds rate is one of many factors influencing mortgage rates. The bond market also plays a role. Most banks do not hold the mortgages they underwrite. They package them into a product called a mortgage-backed security and sell them to investors. Since bond buyers are looking for a competitive return on their money, the interest rate on mortgage-backed securities has to be high enough to attract buyers. The question is, how high?
The most common benchmark lenders peg mortgage rates to is the 10-year Treasury bond yield. Because of this, the interest rate on the mortgage-backed securities has to be higher than the 10-year Treasury yield since there is more risk associated with the mortgage-backed security than with a Treasury bond.
Another critical factor is the housing market. If home prices are so high that buyers decide to rent instead of buy, this lower demand impacts rates. This is because if very few people are buying homes, rates have to drop to encourage buyers to come to the market. The same is valid on the other side as well. If many consumers want to buy, this can drive up mortgage rates.
The supply of homes has an impact too. If there’s inadequate supply, this can cause rates to increase if there is high demand.
Finally, unemployment plays a role. If people have lost their job, they are unlikely to purchase a home. Fear of losing a job is also a factor. With talk of a recession coming, people will not make a large purchase like that of a home if they think they might be out of work soon.
All of these factors blend together to determine where mortgage rates are. No one source determines mortgage rates. Banks consider all of the above data before arriving at a rate they feel is competitive. Since each bank sets its rate, experts advise home buyers to shop around. While one bank might charge you 7%, another might charge you 6.5%. It all depends on the above factors and your credit profile.
This isn’t to say you can shop around in today’s environment and expect to find a bank offering 3%. The rates you are quoted will be in a small range. But this shouldn’t discourage you from finding the lowest rate. Not only will a lower rate make your monthly payment smaller, but you will pay thousands of dollars less in interest over the life of your loan.
Bottom Line
While the sudden drop in mortgage rates was welcome news to home buyers and the housing industry, more information is needed to know if rates will drop again. In the previous months, we saw reports suggesting that inflation was slowing, only for it to rise again the following month.
Once we have additional information indicating that the general trend of high inflation is easing, consumers can expect lower mortgage rates. Until that happens, it is wise to lock in now, as rates could still go higher, depending on future inflation reports. If they were to start falling, home buyers could refinance to take advantage of the lower rates.
As investors, it’s important to track what’s happening in real estate of course, and if you’re tracking real estate closely because you’re looking to buy a house, it’s important to keep your investments liquid so you can make that all-too-daunting down payment when the time comes. Toward that end, Q.ai takes the guesswork out of investing.
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Real eState
Caution about Canada's private real estate sector abounds as valuations slow to adjust – The Globe and Mail
Valuations for Canada’s office real estate have taken longer to adjust than properties in other advanced economies.Jeff McIntosh/The Canadian Press
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As the U.S. economy has pulled meaningfully ahead of Canada’s, so too has its private commercial real estate sector, which is adjusting more positively to the post-pandemic reality.
That’s particularly evident in both countries’ privately held office property markets. While the U.S.’s is well down the path of transforming, demolishing or otherwise ridding itself of empty office space, Canada’s has practically frozen in place following a wave of markdowns in 2023. That has made valuation assessments next to impossible.
“There’s a big dichotomy, and the Canadian market so far has not corrected,” says Victor Kuntzevitsky, portfolio manager with Stonehaven Private Counsel at Wellington-Altus Private Counsel Inc. in Aurora, Ont., which holds private real estate assets in credit and equity vehicles in both Canada and the U.S.
It’s no secret that last year was a difficult period for owners of Canadian private real estate, with many pension fund managers losing money as high interest rates drove up borrowing costs, inflation increased operating costs and vacancy rates remained high or even climbed.
The Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec saw its real estate portfolio decline 6.2 per cent in 2023. The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan experienced a 5.9-per-cent loss in its real estate book, while markdowns on commercial properties owned by the Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System (OMERS) resulted in its real estate portfolio dropping by 7.2 per cent.
However, there are pockets of strength investors can look to, says Colin Lynch, managing director and head of alternative investments at TD Asset Management Inc. These include multi-family residential and open-air retail centres, as well as industrial properties, which have been steady performers following strong gains through the pandemic.
It’s a view that dovetails with other analyses of the Canadian market. BMO Global Asset Management’s latest commercial property outlook notes that the industrial and multi-family segments remain strong due to high investor demand and tight supply.
“Office remains the asset class of the greatest near-term concern and focus,” the BMO GAM report states, estimating “a timeline for a return to ‘normal’ of a least five years.”
Mr. Lynch says while that timeframe could be accurate, private real estate investors need to evaluate opportunities on a city-by-city basis.
“Every city is very different. In fact, the smaller the city, the better the office property market has generally performed because commute times are much better, so in-office presence is much higher,” he says.
He points to cities such as Winnipeg, Regina and Saskatoon, where commute times can be 10 minutes and office workers are in four days a week on average.
However, there’s also room for more bad news, with some property owners struggling to refinance expensive debt in a higher-for-longer rate environment that could force firesales for lower-quality buildings.
The U.S. and other advanced real estate markets, such as the U.K., are “quarters ahead” of where the Canadian office market is in terms of valuation adjustments, Mr. Lynch says. A major reason is much of Canada’s commercial office real estate is owned by a relatively small group of large investment funds.
“Peak to trough in the U.K., for example, declines were about 20 per cent,” he says, noting that Canada’s market hasn’t corrected to that extent, but it is catching up.
Mr. Kuntzevitsky says these private fund assets are valued based on activity.
“The U.S. market is deeper, there’s more activity within it compared to Canada,” he says. “The auditors I speak to who value these funds are saying, ‘Listen, if there’s no activity in the marketplace, we’re just making assumptions.’”
Nicolas Schulman, senior wealth advisor and portfolio manager with the Schulman Group Family Wealth Management at National Bank Financial Wealth Management in Montreal, holds private real estate funds for clients and says he’s preparing to evaluate new investments in the Canadian space later in 2024.
“We don’t think the recovery would take a full five-year window, but we do believe it’s going to take a bit more time. Our conviction is, we want to start looking at the sector toward the end of this year,” Mr. Schulman says.
Mr. Kuntzevitsky says he’s been allocating any excess cash to the U.S. market in both private and publicly listed vehicles.
“The opportunity here is that you redeem your open-ended private [real estate investment trusts (REITs) in Canada] and reallocate the money to the U.S., where the private market reflects [net asset values] based on recent activity, or you can invest in publicly listed REITs,” he says.
Still, Mr. Kuntzevitsky is watching developments closer to home for evidence the market is turning.
In February, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Oxford Properties Group Inc. struck a deal to sell two downtown Vancouver office buildings for about $300-million to Germany’s Deka Group – about 14 per cent less than they were targeting.
“Hopefully, that will activate the market,” Mr. Kuntzevitsky says. “But so far, we haven’t seen that yet.”
For more from Globe Advisor, visit our homepage.
A large condo complex proposed in the increasingly condo-packed Yonge and Eglinton neighbourhood is planning to go much taller.
Developer Madison Group has filed plans to increase the height of its planned two-tower condo complex at 50 Eglinton Ave. W., from previously approved heights of 33 and 35 storeys, respectively, to a significantly taller plan calling for 46- and 58-storey towers.
The dual skyscrapers will rise from a podium featuring restored facades of a heritage-designed Toronto Hydro substation building.
As of 2024, plans for high-rise development at this site have been evolving for over a dozen years, first as two separate projects before being folded into one. The height sought for this site has almost doubled in the years since first proposed, and it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise for anyone tracking development in this part of the city.
Early 2024 design for 50 Eglinton West before current height increase request.
Building on a 2023 approval for towers of 33 and 35 storeys, the developer filed an updated application at the start of 2024 seeking a slight height increase to 35 and 37 storeys.
Only a few months later, the latest update submitted with city planners this April reflects the changing landscape in the surrounding midtown area, where tower heights and density allotments have skyrocketed in recent years in advance of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT.
April 2024 vision for 50 Eglinton Avenue West.
The current design from Audax Architecture is a vertical extrusion of the previous plan that maintains all details, including stepbacks and material details.
That updated design introduced in January responds to an agreement that allows the developer to incorporate office space replacement required under the neighbourhood plan to a nearby development site at 90-110 Eglinton East.
According to a letter filed with the City, “As a result of the removal of the on-site office replacement, which altered the design and size of the podium, and to improve the heritage preservation approach to the former Toronto Hydro substation building… Madison engaged Audax Architecture and Turner Fleischer Architects to reimagine the architectural style and expression of the project.”
A total of 1,206 condominium units are proposed in the current version of the plan, with over 98 per cent of the total floor space allocated to residential space. Of that total, 553 units are planned for the shorter west tower, with 653 in the taller east tower.
A sizeable retail component of over 1,300 square metres would animate the base of the complex at Duplex and Eglinton.
The complex would be served by a three-level underground parking garage housing 216 spots for residents and visitors. Most residents would be expected to make use of the Eglinton Line 1 and future Line 5 stations across the street to the southeast for longer-haul commutes.
Audax Architecture/Turner Fleischer Architects
Real estate is increasingly a tale of two markets — a luxury sector that is booming, and the rest of the market that continues to struggle with higher rates and low inventory.
Overall real estate sales fell 4% nationwide in the first quarter, according to Redfin. Yet, luxury real estate sales increased more than 2%, posting their best year-over-year gains in three years, according to Redfin.
Real estate experts and brokers chalk up the divergence to interest rates and supply. With mortgage rates now above 7% for a 30-year fixed loan, most homebuyers are finding prices out of reach. Affluent and wealthy buyers, however, are snapping up homes with cash, making them less vulnerable to high rates.
Nearly half of all luxury homes, defined by Redfin as homes in the top 5% of their metro area by value, were bought with all cash in the quarter, according to Redfin. That is the highest share in at least a decade. In Manhattan, all-cash deals hit a record 68% of all sales, according to Miller Samuel.
The flood of cash is also driving up prices at the top. Median luxury-home prices soared nearly 9% in the quarter, roughly twice the increase seen in the broader market, according to Redfin. The median price of luxury homes hit an all-time record of $1,225,000 during the period.
“People with the means to buy high-end homes are jumping in now because they feel confident prices will continue to rise,” said David Palmer, a Redfin agent in Seattle, where the median-priced luxury home sells for $2.7 million. “They’re ready to buy with more optimism and less apprehension.”
The luxury market is also benefiting from more supply of homes for sale. Since wealthy sellers are more likely to buy with cash, they are not as worried about trading out of a low-rate mortgage like most homeowners. That has freed up the upper end of listings, creating more inventory and driving more sales.
The number of luxury homes for sale jumped 13% in the first quarter, compared to a 3% decline for the rest of the housing market, according to Redfin. While overall luxury inventory remains “well below” pre-pandemic levels, the number of luxury listings that came online during the first quarter jumped 19%, the report said.
“Prices continue to increase for high-end homes, so homeowners feel it’s a good time to cash in on their equity,” Palmer said.
Still, not all luxury markets are booming, and the strongest price growth is in areas not typically known for luxury homes. According to Redfin, the market with the fastest luxury price growth was Providence, Rhode Island, with prices up 16%, followed by New Brunswick, New Jersey, where prices were up 15%. New York City saw the biggest price decline, down 10%.
When it comes to overall sales of luxury homes, Seattle posted the strongest growth of any metro area, with sales up 37%. Austin, Texas ranked second with sales up 26%, followed by San Francisco with a 24% increase.
Luxury homes sold the fastest in Seattle, with a median days on the market of nine days, followed by Oakland, California, and San Jose, California.
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