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Canada‘s double-digit house price inflation will lose steam next year, but affordability is still almost certain to worsen in one of the world’s hottest property markets, according to a Reuters poll of analysts.
A rush to purchase homes ahead of expected increases in Canadian interest rates https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bank-canada-q3-2022-rate-hike-expected-q2-rise-possible-2021-12-03 next year is boosting the housing market in the final quarter, with prices skyrocketing 18.2% https://www.reuters.com/article/canada-economy-housing-idCAKBN2I01EP in October compared to the year-earlier period.
Extra froth in the market, driven by investors fueling perceptions that prices will keep rising, has prompted the Bank of Canada https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/canadas-housing-market-higher-risk-correction-says-bank-canada-2021-11-23 to recently warn of an increased risk of a correction.
“Affordability is unlikely to improve next year as prices should march higher, even as interest rates creep upwards as well,” said Rishi Sondhi, economist at TD Economics, who expects house price inflation to slow considerably next year.
“We think rate hikes will weigh on, but not upend, demand, as the macro backdrop should remain supportive for sales.”
Average house prices in Canada are expected to rise 18.6% this year, up from a 16.0% rise predicted in an August poll.
But those increases were forecast to slow significantly, to 5.0% in 2022 and 2.0% in 2023, according to the poll of 15 market analysts which was conducted from Nov. 17 to Dec. 6 and released on Tuesday. That compared to rises of 3.2% and 2.6%, respectively, in the August poll.
Only two respondents expected prices to fall in 2023, and by modest amounts.
Asked what would have the biggest impact on house prices next year, nine of 14 respondents said higher interest rates or tighter monetary policy. The remaining five cited supply constraints.
A follow-up question on how many basis points of interest rate hikes would significantly slow housing market activity had a median forecast of 100, with predictions in a range of 75 to 175 basis points.
Canada‘s central bank is expected to start raising interest rates by the end of the third quarter https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bank-canada-q3-2022-rate-hike-expected-q2-rise-possible-2021-12-03 next year.
“One or two rate increases is unlikely to have a meaningful impact, but if we see four or more rate increases in 2022, this should take some demand out of the market, especially from interest rate-sensitive investors,” said John Pasalis, president of brokerage and research firm Realosophy Realty.
For many first-time home buyers, prices have climbed beyond their reach and a supply shortage of housing units has only aggravated their woes.
“Investors, house ‘flippers,’ and speculators, who according to the Bank of Canada account for over 20% of home purchases, have aggravated the severe demand-supply imbalance, boosted prices even higher and made housing more vulnerable to a correction,” said Tony Stillo, director of economics for Canada at Oxford Economics.
All 15 analysts who answered a question about affordability over the next two to three years said it would worsen.
“Out-of-reach housing prices will invariably lead more Canadians to rentals, especially if they have to live close to where they work. However, people who can work remotely will continue to migrate out of more expensive urban centres and ‘drive until they qualify,'” Stillo said.
(For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls:)
(Reporting by Swathi Nair; polling by Indradip Ghosh and Sarupya Ganguly; Editing by Ross Finley and Paul Simao)
Canada’s Real Estate Bubble Is So Big Even The Mother of All Crashes Can’t Fix It – Better Dwelling
Lack of listings pushes Alberta real estate into a sellers' market – Calgary Herald
Amid the success of the real estate market is a sore spot that could drive up prices more than expected, and that’s low inventory in the coming year, according to one national realty firm.
While the pinch of low supply is most acute in larger centres like Toronto and Vancouver, Alberta is also “feeling the inventory pinch,” says Rachel Rehkopf, spokesperson for Zoocasa Realty Inc. in Toronto.
She points to December total sales rising by 27 per cent in Alberta while new listings remained stagnant.
That “pushed the entire province into sellers’ market conditions.”
The province sits at 2.5 months of residential inventory. That essentially means if no new homes came to market over the next two and a half months, and current demand for housing continues, Alberta would have no more homes for sale.
It’s a scenario that’s unlikely to happen, of course, and the overall supply-demand picture is better in Alberta than other parts of the country, she adds.
In Ontario, for example, supply is 0.6 months while the metric is 1.7 months in British Columbia.
Yet Alberta’s supply is significantly lower than last year when it had four months of supply, she says.
Calgary is the tighter of the two large markets in the province with only 1.5 months of supply, while Edmonton actually added new listings in December, growing by about 10 per cent, year over year. Still, sales in Edmonton outpaced new listings, resulting in a 14 per cent decrease in inventory.
Overall, high demand in both cities paired with continuing low supply will likely drive prices higher in the year ahead, she notes.
Welcome to Real Estate Friday! – theberkshireedge.com
Here’s what we have for you this week in The Edge Real Estate section:
- Property of the Week – Janet Kain of TKG Real Estate offers the opportunity to live in a stunning home, lovingly cared for and perfectly located for year-round enjoyment of the Berkshires.
- Transformations – Designer Jennifer Owen and her clients imagined a calming space to relax while listening to the Boston Symphony Orchestra Live from Tanglewood on the radio!
- Weekly real estate transactions for Berkshire County, Northern Litchfield County and, now, Columbia County
- Market Perspective – Updated this week: The 2021 year-end real estate report from the Berkshire Board of REALTORS. What does it tell us?
- The Self-Taught Gardener – How does Joan Didion’s approach to life and to her art inform our Self-Taught Gardener on how to garden?
- Gardener’s Checklist – The holidays are over and the winter doldrums have set in. What’s a gardener to do to lift his spirits in these dark days?
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