Once labelled the hottest real estate market in the country, Windsor-Essex is now on a list of regions expected to see the biggest decline in home prices as the market corrects itself, according to a new report.
The Desjardins Group’s recent Canadian Residential Real Estate Outlook report states that Chatham-Kent and Windsor-Essex are among the top three regions in Ontario to be hit, with Bancroft in first place.
“What our report says is that those markets that have seen the biggest appreciation in the last couple years are going to be the most vulnerable to the price declines,” explained Jimmy Jean, vice-president and chief economist with Desjardins, who oversaw the report, which was published in early June.
The pandemic encouraged people to move out of city centres to cheaper locations like Windsor-Essex, and that’s why areas a few hours outside of Toronto are now expected to see this drop, Jean added.
That means Windsor’s red-hot spike in prices have now put it in the red zone on the flip side.
Ontario-wide, the report projects an average price decline of about 18 per cent. Windsor-Essex is expected to see a price decline of 44 per cent from its peak, according to Jean, but that comes after a 100 per cent appreciation from December 2019 until the recent peak in house prices. Chatham-Kent is predicted to experience a 47 per cent drop from its peak.
Growing interest rates are a significant factor in why, Jean explained.
The report by the Desjardins group predicts that following the area of Bancroft, which is in first place, Chatham-Kent and Windsor-Essex see the biggest decline in home prices by the end of 2023 across the province. (Desjardins Group)
However, the president of the Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors, Elica Berry, disagrees with this prediction.
“My prediction — our prediction — based on some of our financial advisors and everything, we’re thinking that it’s going to stay stable,” Berry said.
“We’re not going to be dropping significantly. We have a lot of things going on in our economy here, so we don’t see it dropping. I cannot imagine it dropping to that extent here in Windsor.”
She added it would also be far too soon to tell.
According to data from the Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors, the average price of a home in Windsor-Essex reached its peak in March at $723,739. The average dipped down to $692,759 in April, continuing down to $647,331 in May.
Jean predicts prices will continue go down, though he doesn’t expect a full roll back to pre-pandemic price levels, and added that in 2023, prices will still be higher than they were at the end of 2019.
Relief for some, blow for others
This will likely be a blow to those who made purchases at the market’s peak, he explained.
“Those are going to be the individuals that are going to be most affected in terms of their wealth,” Jean said, but stressed that this correction won’t last long, and that appreciation should rise again following the end of 2023.
Economist Jimmy Jean predicts a ‘healthy’ market correction
5 hours ago
Duration 1:17
Here’s what economist Jimmy Jean anticipates in the real estate market over the next couple of years.
While it will sting some, this market correction will also provide “temporary relief” for others, Jean added.
Given that the pandemic saw a rise in over-bidding and practices like buying “sight unseen,” this shift will help reduce those practices.
“Those are very unhealthy market behaviours and it’s the reason that we will have some individuals who will find themselves underwater as this unfolds. But at the same time, for new buyers in the next couple of years, it’s going to be a market that’s going to have more choice. It’s also going to be a market that’s more affordable and more aligned with what actual incomes can and should be paying.”
Shift in the market
Though Berry doesn’t anticipate the kind of decline Jean is predicting, she does acknowledge that there has been a shift in the market in recent months.
“We’re wondering where all the buyers went,” Berry said.
Elica Berry, president of Windsor-Essex County Association of Realtors, doesn’t anticipate a major decline in the real estate market. (CBC)
She explained that months ago, a listing would get up to 20 offers and would sell within a week, but now it’s taking weeks to sell, sometimes getting as little as two offers on a listing.
Berry said homes are still selling over-asking, but not to the same extent as before, and so sellers have to adjust to the market.
It’s also led to some listings being cancelled and re-listed after not getting the hoped-for response to that property.
Berry stresses that while we’re not seeing the same spike as before, the market here is still strong.
“It’s still there, still in the 600K range, so we’re catching up with the rest of Canada.”
Looking forward, Jean looks forward to a return to “more sanity” in the market.
“This will be a healthy correction re-balancing. But the market should be able to find its footing. So, that’s why we were saying this is not a reason to panic,” he said.
“What we saw in the last couple of years was just unsustainable.”
HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.
Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.
Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.
The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.
Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.
They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.
The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.
Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.
Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500
Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438
Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103
Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359
Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent
How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
VANCOUVER – Voters along the south coast of British Columbia who have not cast their ballots yet will have to contend with heavy rain and high winds from an incoming atmospheric river weather system on election day.
Environment Canada says the weather system will bring prolonged heavy rain to Metro Vancouver, the Sunshine Coast, Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler and Vancouver Island starting Friday.
The agency says strong winds with gusts up to 80 kilometres an hour will also develop on Saturday — the day thousands are expected to go to the polls across B.C. — in parts of Vancouver Island and Metro Vancouver.
Wednesday was the last day for advance voting, which started on Oct. 10.
More than 180,000 voters cast their votes Wednesday — the most ever on an advance voting day in B.C., beating the record set just days earlier on Oct. 10 of more than 170,000 votes.
Environment Canada says voters in the area of the atmospheric river can expect around 70 millimetres of precipitation generally and up to 100 millimetres along the coastal mountains, while parts of Vancouver Island could see as much as 200 millimetres of rainfall for the weekend.
An atmospheric river system in November 2021 created severe flooding and landslides that at one point severed most rail links between Vancouver’s port and the rest of Canada while inundating communities in the Fraser Valley and B.C. Interior.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
