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‘Ripe conditions for consolidation’: Will 2024 be the year for more media dealmaking?

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Wall Street is ready for the next big media merger.

As companies in the space face challenges such as cord cutting, a tough ad environment, and more pressure to turn profits, many are reevaluating their portfolios. That means a breakup— or outright sale — of one or more of America’s biggest media names could be in the cards next year, analysts say.

“We believe the media industry is inching closer to the tipping point for another wave of consolidation,” Bank of America analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote in a note to clients earlier this month.

She explained the secular declines of linear television subscribers coupled with challenges in achieving profits in the streaming business add to the narrative that “consolidation is a matter of ‘when’ not ‘if.'”

That “when” may be sooner rather than later, with Axios reporting earlier this week that Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) CEO David Zaslav and Paramount Global (PARA) CEO Bob Bakish met in New York City on Tuesday to discuss a possible merger.

Both companies declined to comment on the report, although Paramount appears to have become the industry’s No. 1 pick for structural changes ahead.

Shari Redstone, non-executive chairwoman of Paramount Global and president of her family's holding company National Amusements, reacts as she celebrates the Viacom-CBS merger at the Nasdaq Market site in New York, U.S., December 5, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidShari Redstone, non-executive chairwoman of Paramount Global and president of her family's holding company National Amusements, reacts as she celebrates the Viacom-CBS merger at the Nasdaq Market site in New York, U.S., December 5, 2019. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Shari Redstone, non-executive chairwoman of Paramount Global and president of her family’s holding company National Amusements, at the Nasdaq Market site in New York, Dec. 5, 2019. (Brendan McDermid/REUTERS) (REUTERS / Reuters)

Paramount deal could set off frenzy

Earlier this month, multiple outlets reported that Shari Redstone was considering selling her family’s controlling stake in Paramount. Redstone is president of her family’s holding company, National Amusements (NAI), which controls the company through its Class A shares. Private investment firm RedBird Capital has been reported as a potential buyer, along with Skydance Media CEO David Ellison.

Paramount has long been viewed as a potential acquisition target due to its small size relative to competitors. The company boasts a current market cap of just around $10 billion, compared to Disney’s (DIS) $170 billion and Netflix’s (NFLX) roughly $220 billion.

Analysts have said a Paramount deal could set off an M&A frenzy.

In addition to Paramount, Bank of America’s Reif Ehrlich said Warner Bros. Discovery and NBCUniversal (CMCSA) are also “likely to be impacted [by consolidation] over the next 18 to 24 months.” As the Axios report suggested, it’s possible two of those three players could merge.

Individual assets are also reportedly in play. On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported Paramount is once again in talks to sell BET Media Group — this time to its CEO Scott Mills and former Blackstone executive Chinh Chu, who now runs private investment firm CC Capital Partners. A price of just under $2 billion is under discussion, according to the report.

Meanwhile, Disney CEO Bob Iger said earlier this summer the company would take an “expansive” look at the entertainment giant’s traditional TV assets, signaling they could potentially be sold.

The company’s TV portfolio includes broadcast network ABC and cable channels FX, Freeform, and National Geographic.

He eventually reversed course, clarifying at last month’s DealBook summit that linear TV assets “are not for sale.” Still, the company is “constantly evaluating” their fit within the overall business, he said.

Separately, Altice USA (ATUS) is reportedly in talks to sell its news arm, Cheddar News, to private equity firm Regent.

“Handicapping the precise timing of any transformational deal is difficult,” Reif Ehrlich said. “However, we believe the challenging backdrop creates ripe conditions for consolidation.”

Media challenges likely to spur deal activity

2023 represented a year of change for the industry after rising costs and debt-ridden balance sheets weighed on the sector in 2022 — and wiped off more than $500 billion in market capitalization.

In response, media giants enacted mass layoffs and slashed billions of dollars’ worth of costs. They rolled out ad-supported tiers, bundled their offerings, and raised the monthly prices of their respective subscription plans.

But all of that wasn’t enough to satisfy investors. Valuation levels remain depressed. And streaming profitability still has a long way to go, with virtually all media companies (with the exception of Netflix) losing money on that business.

Bart Spiegel, partner of global entertainment & media deals at PwC, said those challenges are exactly why companies will begin to explore possible deals.

“We’re seeing a lot of companies focus on divestitures,” he told Yahoo Finance, explaining that the high interest rate environment, coupled with various regulatory hurdles, are forcing more companies to assess their existing portfolios — and position non-core assets for sale.

“A lot of these companies are engaging us because they see opportunities in 2024,” he said, noting private equity funds are sitting on more than $1 trillion in dry powder, or cash reserves. “We’re seeing a lot of capital sitting on the sidelines, people are preparing their businesses for sale, and, in some areas, there’s a lot of interest in activity.”

PwC said demand for live sports, including sports-adjacent industries like sports gambling, will likely drive future M&A activity. Gaming, which companies like Netflix have recently doubled down on, should serve as another catalyst.

Deal volumes and values in the media and telecommunications sector continued to slow in 2023 — falling even further from last year’s declines, according to PwC’s biannual US deals outlook.

Over the past 12 months ending in November, there have been 2,028 media and telecom deals — a 22% year-over-year decrease — with announced deal value totaling $95 billion, a 63% dip versus 2022.

Spiegel warned a comeback could be slow. Interest rates remain high while regulatory approval hurdles will likely weigh on potential deals. Uncertainty surrounding the 2024 election cycle could also be a headwind.

Still, he predicted the second half of 2024 should be a “welcome opportunity for the deals market to turn around” — especially after the conclusion of both the writers and actors strikes earlier this fall.

“Now you’ve got some level of transparency and predictability,” Spiegel said of the strikes.

 

 

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What to stream this weekend: ‘Civil War,’ Snow Patrol, ‘How to Die Alone,’ ‘Tulsa King’ and ‘Uglies’

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Hallmark launching a streaming service with two new original series, and Bill Skarsgård out for revenge in “Boy Kills World” are some of the new television, films, music and games headed to a device near you.

Also among the streaming offerings worth your time as selected by The Associated Press’ entertainment journalists: Alex Garland’s “Civil War” starring Kirsten Dunst, Natasha Rothwell’s heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone” and Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts.

NEW MOVIES TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

Alex Garland’s “Civil War” is finally making its debut on MAX on Friday. The film stars Kirsten Dunst as a veteran photojournalist covering a violent war that’s divided America; She reluctantly allows an aspiring photographer, played by Cailee Spaeny, to tag along as she, an editor (Stephen McKinley Henderson) and a reporter (Wagner Moura) make the dangerous journey to Washington, D.C., to interview the president (Nick Offerman), a blustery, rising despot who has given himself a third term, taken to attacking his citizens and shut himself off from the press. In my review, I called it a bellowing and haunting experience; Smart and thought-provoking with great performances. It’s well worth a watch.

— Joey King stars in Netflix’s adaptation of Scott Westerfeld’s “Uglies,” about a future society in which everyone is required to have beautifying cosmetic surgery at age 16. Streaming on Friday, McG directed the film, in which King’s character inadvertently finds herself in the midst of an uprising against the status quo. “Outer Banks” star Chase Stokes plays King’s best friend.

— Bill Skarsgård is out for revenge against the woman (Famke Janssen) who killed his family in “Boy Kills World,” coming to Hulu on Friday. Moritz Mohr directed the ultra-violent film, of which Variety critic Owen Gleiberman wrote: “It’s a depraved vision, yet I got caught up in its kick-ass revenge-horror pizzazz, its disreputable commitment to what it was doing.”

AP Film Writer Lindsey Bahr

NEW MUSIC TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— The year was 2006. Snow Patrol, the Northern Irish-Scottish alternative rock band, released an album, “Eyes Open,” producing the biggest hit of their career: “Chasing Cars.” A lot has happened in the time since — three, soon to be four quality full-length albums, to be exact. On Friday, the band will release “The Forest Is the Path,” their first new album in seven years. Anthemic pop-rock is the name of the game across songs of love and loss, like “All,”“The Beginning” and “This Is the Sound Of Your Voice.”

— For fans of raucous guitar music, Jordan Peele’s 2022 sci-fi thriller, “NOPE,” provided a surprising, if tiny, thrill. One of the leads, Emerald “Em” Haywood portrayed by Keke Palmer, rocks a Jesus Lizard shirt. (Also featured through the film: Rage Against the Machine, Wipers, Mr Bungle, Butthole Surfers and Earth band shirts.) The Austin noise rock band are a less than obvious pick, having been signed to the legendary Touch and Go Records and having stopped releasing new albums in 1998. That changes on Friday the 13th, when “Rack” arrives. And for those curious: The Jesus Lizard’s intensity never went away.

AP Music Writer Maria Sherman

NEW SHOWS TO STREAM SEPT. 9-15

— Hallmark launched a streaming service called Hallmark+ on Tuesday with two new original series, the scripted drama “The Chicken Sisters” and unscripted series “Celebrations with Lacey Chabert.” If you’re a Hallmark holiday movies fan, you know Chabert. She’s starred in more than 30 of their films and many are holiday themed. Off camera, Chabert has a passion for throwing parties and entertaining. In “Celebrations,” deserving people are surprised with a bash in their honor — planned with Chabert’s help. “The Chicken Sisters” stars Schuyler Fisk, Wendie Malick and Lea Thompson in a show about employees at rival chicken restaurants in a small town. The eight-episode series is based on a novel of the same name.

Natasha Rothwell of “Insecure” and “The White Lotus” fame created and stars in a new heartfelt comedy for Hulu called “How to Die Alone.” She plays Mel, a broke, go-along-to-get-along, single, airport employee who, after a near-death experience, makes the conscious decision to take risks and pursue her dreams. Rothwell has been working on the series for the past eight years and described it to The AP as “the most vulnerable piece of art I’ve ever put into the world.” Like Mel, Rothwell had to learn to bet on herself to make the show she wanted to make. “In the Venn diagram of me and Mel, there’s significant overlap,” said Rothwell. It premieres Friday on Hulu.

— Shailene Woodley, DeWanda Wise and Betty Gilpin star in a new drama for Starz called “Three Women,” about entrepreneur Sloane, homemaker Lina and student Maggie who are each stepping into their power and making life-changing decisions. They’re interviewed by a writer named Gia (Woodley.) The series is based on a 2019 best-selling book of the same name by Lisa Taddeo. “Three Women” premieres Friday on Starz.

— Sylvester Stallone’s second season of “Tulsa King” debuts Sunday on Paramount+. Stallone plays Dwight Manfredi, a mafia boss who was recently released from prison after serving 25 years. He’s sent to Tulsa to set up a new crime syndicate. The series is created by Taylor Sheridan of “Yellowstone” fame.

Alicia Rancilio

NEW VIDEO GAMES TO PLAY

— One thing about the title of Focus Entertainment’s Warhammer 40,000: Space Marine 2 — you know exactly what you’re in for. You are Demetrian Titus, a genetically enhanced brute sent into battle against the Tyranids, an insectoid species with an insatiable craving for human flesh. You have a rocket-powered suit of armor and an arsenal of ridiculous weapons like the “Chainsword,” the “Thunderhammer” and the “Melta Rifle,” so what could go wrong? Besides the squishy single-player mode, there are cooperative missions and six-vs.-six free-for-alls. You can suit up now on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S or PC.

— Likewise, Wild Bastards isn’t exactly the kind of title that’s going to attract fans of, say, Animal Crossing. It’s another sci-fi shooter, but the protagonists are a gang of 13 varmints — aliens and androids included — who are on the run from the law. Each outlaw has a distinctive set of weapons and special powers: Sarge, for example, is a robot with horse genes, while Billy the Squid is … well, you get the idea. Australian studio Blue Manchu developed the 2019 cult hit Void Bastards, and this Wild-West-in-space spinoff has the same snarky humor and vibrant, neon-drenched cartoon look. Saddle up on PlayStation 5, Xbox X/S, Nintendo Switch or PC.

Lou Kesten

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Trump could cash out his DJT stock within weeks. Here’s what happens if he sells

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Former President Donald Trump is on the brink of a significant financial decision that could have far-reaching implications for both his personal wealth and the future of his fledgling social media company, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG). As the lockup period on his shares in TMTG, which owns Truth Social, nears its end, Trump could soon be free to sell his substantial stake in the company. However, the potential payday, which makes up a large portion of his net worth, comes with considerable risks for Trump and his supporters.

Trump’s stake in TMTG comprises nearly 59% of the company, amounting to 114,750,000 shares. As of now, this holding is valued at approximately $2.6 billion. These shares are currently under a lockup agreement, a common feature of initial public offerings (IPOs), designed to prevent company insiders from immediately selling their shares and potentially destabilizing the stock. The lockup, which began after TMTG’s merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC), is set to expire on September 25, though it could end earlier if certain conditions are met.

Should Trump decide to sell his shares after the lockup expires, the market could respond in unpredictable ways. The sale of a substantial number of shares by a major stakeholder like Trump could flood the market, potentially driving down the stock price. Daniel Bradley, a finance professor at the University of South Florida, suggests that the market might react negatively to such a large sale, particularly if there aren’t enough buyers to absorb the supply. This could lead to a sharp decline in the stock’s value, impacting both Trump’s personal wealth and the company’s market standing.

Moreover, Trump’s involvement in Truth Social has been a key driver of investor interest. The platform, marketed as a free speech alternative to mainstream social media, has attracted a loyal user base largely due to Trump’s presence. If Trump were to sell his stake, it might signal a lack of confidence in the company, potentially shaking investor confidence and further depressing the stock price.

Trump’s decision is also influenced by his ongoing legal battles, which have already cost him over $100 million in legal fees. Selling his shares could provide a significant financial boost, helping him cover these mounting expenses. However, this move could also have political ramifications, especially as he continues his bid for the Republican nomination in the 2024 presidential race.

Trump Media’s success is closely tied to Trump’s political fortunes. The company’s stock has shown volatility in response to developments in the presidential race, with Trump’s chances of winning having a direct impact on the stock’s value. If Trump sells his stake, it could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in his own political future, potentially undermining both his campaign and the company’s prospects.

Truth Social, the flagship product of TMTG, has faced challenges in generating traffic and advertising revenue, especially compared to established social media giants like X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook. Despite this, the company’s valuation has remained high, fueled by investor speculation on Trump’s political future. If Trump remains in the race and manages to secure the presidency, the value of his shares could increase. Conversely, any missteps on the campaign trail could have the opposite effect, further destabilizing the stock.

As the lockup period comes to an end, Trump faces a critical decision that could shape the future of both his personal finances and Truth Social. Whether he chooses to hold onto his shares or cash out, the outcome will likely have significant consequences for the company, its investors, and Trump’s political aspirations.

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Arizona man accused of social media threats to Trump is arrested

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Cochise County, AZ — Law enforcement officials in Arizona have apprehended Ronald Lee Syvrud, a 66-year-old resident of Cochise County, after a manhunt was launched following alleged death threats he made against former President Donald Trump. The threats reportedly surfaced in social media posts over the past two weeks, as Trump visited the US-Mexico border in Cochise County on Thursday.

Syvrud, who hails from Benson, Arizona, located about 50 miles southeast of Tucson, was captured by the Cochise County Sheriff’s Office on Thursday afternoon. The Sheriff’s Office confirmed his arrest, stating, “This subject has been taken into custody without incident.”

In addition to the alleged threats against Trump, Syvrud is wanted for multiple offences, including failure to register as a sex offender. He also faces several warrants in both Wisconsin and Arizona, including charges for driving under the influence and a felony hit-and-run.

The timing of the arrest coincided with Trump’s visit to Cochise County, where he toured the US-Mexico border. During his visit, Trump addressed the ongoing border issues and criticized his political rival, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, for what he described as lax immigration policies. When asked by reporters about the ongoing manhunt for Syvrud, Trump responded, “No, I have not heard that, but I am not that surprised and the reason is because I want to do things that are very bad for the bad guys.”

This incident marks the latest in a series of threats against political figures during the current election cycle. Just earlier this month, a 66-year-old Virginia man was arrested on suspicion of making death threats against Vice President Kamala Harris and other public officials.

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