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Rising prices and rising real estate today. Why? A quick explanation. | RENX – Real Estate News EXchange

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There is a lot of investment capital out there that has been building up waiting to be spent, and a significant amount of that money is now flowing into real estate.

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

If you’re scratching your head and asking, “Why are home prices going up?” part of the answer is: because you’ve been sitting at home for 18 months not spending anything.

There was also a lack of housing built in the past five years, especially in the U.S., so now the market is trying to catch up.

The result is that prices are shooting up, driven by lower interest rates (though rates are projected to rise somewhat), not enough supply, and lots of demand.

Housing a good or bad investment?

Does that make housing a good investment? Well, today it does.

If you own your own house and somebody is knocking on your door trying to buy it, it’s probably worth substantially more now than what you bought it for.

But what happens from here? If you have inflation, which we believe is here now, then your house should also be worth more money in five years.

That’s a good thing for property owners.

The same phenomenon is affecting the apartment building market. Again, there is a lot of money chasing apartment blocks right now.

As a potential investor, how do you determine what this means?

Well, a cap rate is generally what investors look at when they consider buying a property – it’s how you measure whether or not you should be buying a property. Many apartment blocks have been traded at cap rates around five per cent, while in bigger communities cap rates have been in the three per cent range. 

The hunt for good product

If I own a property which was acquired at five per cent and cap rates have compressed to three per cent, I have made money if I want to sell that property.

With lots of money chasing real estate deals, that means you’re going to make money if you have the product.

But it’s very hard right now to find good product. When investors do find good product, there can be a feeling that they should grab it, whatever the cost may be.

On the other hand if you’re a value investor like I also am, I’ve been sitting very, very quietly on the sidelines. Somebody described me as a “lonely” investor because there’s no such thing as a value investment today.

That’s not a phenomenon that’s exclusive to real estate. There are many, many other examples.

Similar issue with consumer goods

For many higher-end consumer goods, if you go into a store today and find something you want, you have to buy it at full price or someone else will.

Take Rolex watches, for example. Everybody wants a Rolex. When you look at a Rolex Daytona, prices have increased from approximately $17,000 to $50,000 from a reseller. There is not enough supply and demand is huge. 

Another example is the vehicle market, where it can take 12 months to take delivery of a new vehicle. You’ll pay more, too. If you used to pay $110,000 for a Cadillac Escalade, now it will cost $160,000.

Carmakers are dealing with chip shortages and labour shortages and can’t produce enough vehicles to meet demand. 

If fashion is your passion, and you want an Yves Saint Laurent or Balenciaga bag, not only are they limited in supply, but because of the demand, companies like The RealReal are buying used products and selling them at high markups.

Again, high demand and low supply is driving inflation.

Circling back to real estate

I was introduced to RealReal by my daughter. I walked around the store and was looking at a pair of old sneakers. I’d never put my feet in a pair of old sneakers somebody else had worn.

She asks, “Dad, how much do you think this is worth?” I reply, “I don’t know, I probably wouldn’t pay five cents for it.”

She says, “Yeah, this pair is worth $10,000.” And I respond, “What? A pair of sneakers?”

The demand for old-style nostalgia is crazy.

As we relate this all back to real estate, the point is there’s a lot of money out there chasing very few products which makes it difficult trying to be a value investor.

I wonder if there truly is a “value investor” any more.

If you want an apartment building, a retail building or even land, and there’s no availability and the vendor tells you he wants $1, he’ll likely get $1.10.

So, if you’re a value investor, you’re left sitting on the sidelines. Good luck, because you are probably sitting in a chair somewhere, lonely all by yourself.

If you want to be an active investor it’s time for you to write the cheque. As awful as it sounds, that’s how it is.

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Real eState

Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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