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Rivian Soars After Volkswagen Investment. Is It Too Late to Buy the Stock?

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Share prices of Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) surged higher after the maker of electric vehicles (EV) received a sizeable investment from German automaker Volkswagen (OTC: VWAGY). Despite the recent price gains, the stock is still down nearly 43% in 2024.

Let’s look at the importance of this investment, how it could help Rivian, and if it is too late to buy the stock.

Volkswagen investment

Volkswagen announced it will invest up to $5 billion in Rivian over three years as well as form a 50/50 joint venture (JV) between the companies. Volkswagen will initially invest $1 billion in the company in the form of a convertible note, which will convert to Rivian shares once it receives regulatory approvals, but not before Dec. 1, 2024.

If the JV is approved, the German automaker would look to invest another $4 billion into Rivian or the JV by 2026, including another $1 billion this year upon the implementation of the JV. The purpose of the JV will be to develop next-generation electrical/electronic (E/E) architecture for EVs.

For the JV, Rivian will contribute its expertise in the field of electronic architecture for software-defined vehicles and the associated IP via a fully paid-up license. The formation of the JV will also allow Volkswagen to use Rivian’s current electronic architecture in its own vehicles, which includes its new zonal hardware design.

For Volkswagen, the deal brings with it immediate access to much-needed technology to develop its next generation of EVs. Rivian is one of the few non-Chinese automakers outside of Tesla so far to develop zonal architecture.

For Rivian, meanwhile, this is a huge cash infusion that will allow the company to continue to scale its business. Along with the current $7.9 billion in cash on its balance sheet, this should give Rivian ample room to ramp up production of its lower-priced R2 SUV models at its Illinois plant, as well as build out its planned $5 billion manufacturing campus in Georgia, which it temporarily paused construction on earlier this year.

Volkswagen will also lend some of its manufacturing expertise, which can help Rivian continue to cut manufacturing costs. Rivian has done a great job creating popular luxury electric SUVs, but it has not been able to sell them for a profit, losing money on each vehicle it sells. At its investor day following the Volkswagen announcement, the company spent much of its time discussing reducing the costs of its vehicles so it could obtain a positive gross margin.

The company reiterated its forecast to be near a positive gross margin in the fourth quarter, and it set a long-term target of a 25% gross margin. It is also looking for a 10% free cash flow margin and a high-teens adjusted profit margin over the long term.

A person sits in the drivers seat of a car, while someone else leans through the window.
Image source: Getty Images.

Is it too late to buy the stock?

The Volkswagen investment, if the JV is approved, should give Rivian the cash it needs to scale its business and make it viable. Negative gross margins and cash flow have been its biggest issues, but the company has made aggressive steps to reduce the cost of its vehicles and improve its manufacturing process.

The development of its zonal architecture, meanwhile, has not only greatly improved the cost structure of its vehicles, but has also proven to be a highly valuable technology that Volkswagen was willing to pay a lot of money to get access to for use in its vehicles.

The deal now gives Rivian two very large powerful investors and partners in Volkswagen and Amazon, for whom it has a deal in place to make Amazon’s electric van fleet.

Rivian remains a high-risk/high-reward stock given its early-stage nature and still negative gross margin. However, the deal with Volkswagen helped remove a lot of the liquidity risk associated with the company. As such, the stock looks more attractive from a risk-reward basis after its recent run-up than before the deal.

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Rivian Soars After Volkswagen Investment. Is It Too Late to Buy the Stock? was originally published by The Motley Fool

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite down Friday, U.S. markets mixed as Dow notches another high

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index dipped lower Friday despite strength in energy stocks, while U.S. markets were mixed as the Dow eked out another record but tech stocks dragged.

The mood Friday was mixed after a strong week for equities in both Canada and the U.S., said Andrew Buntain, vice-president and portfolio manager at Fiduciary Trust Canada.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed down 77.01 points at 23,956.82, one day after it . It closed over 24,000 for the first time on Thursday.

The strength this past week wasn’t just in North American markets, noted Buntain, as Chinese stocks enjoyed a rally after the country’s central banks announced a suite of measures intended to boost the economy.

Meanwhile, an undercurrent of broadening strength continued this week as investors spread out their interest beyond a narrow set of tech giants, said Buntain.

“Some of the sectors that have been ignored for several years have been some of the better performers this year,” he said.

“We’re very encouraged by that.”

In New York on Friday, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 137.89 points at 42,313. The S&P 500 index was down 7.20 points at 5,738.17 after setting an all-time high on Thursday, while the Nasdaq composite was down 70.70 points at 18,119.59.

A report Friday on one of the U.S. central bank’s preferred measures of inflation — the personal consumption expenditures price index — showed continued cooling.

The Federal Reserve started lowering its key interest rate last week, and is expected to keep going this fall and into 2025.

However, the Fed’s next interest rate decision isn’t until November, noted Buntain, so there’s plenty of data for the central bank to take in yet — including next week’s labour report.

The job market has been an increasingly key focus for the central bank after recent reports showed cooling in that area of the economy. Friday’s report also showed consumer spending in August didn’t meet economists’ expectations.

In Canada, where the Bank of Canada is set for its next rate decision later in October, Friday brought a GDP report that was a little stronger than expected, said Buntain.

“The Bank of Canada has already delivered three cuts and signalled maybe some further reductions,” he said.

If inflation continues to move lower, Buntain added, the Bank of Canada could even announce an outsized half-percentage-point cut, echoing the Fed’s move last week.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.08 cents US compared with 74.22 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 51 cents at US$68.18 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up 15 cents at US$2.90 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$26.80 at US$2,668.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.60 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite tops 24,000 points for first time, U.S. markets also rise Thursday

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index closed above 24,000 for the first time Thursday as strength in base metals and other sectors outweighed losses in energy, while U.S. markets also rose and the S&P 500 notched another record as well.

“Another day, another record,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

“The path of least resistance continues to be higher.”

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 127.95 points at 24,033.83.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 260.36 points at 42,175.11. The S&P 500 index was up 23.11 points at 5,745.37, while the Nasdaq composite was up 108.09 points at 18,190.29.

Markets continue to be optimistic about an economic soft landing, said Kourkafas, after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week announced an outsized cut to its key interest rate following months of speculation about when it would start easing policy.

Economic data Thursday added to the story that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates, said Kourkafas.

The U.S. economy grew at a three-per-cent annual rate in the second quarter, one report said, picking up from the first quarter of the year. Another report showed fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.

The data shows “the economy remains on strong footing while the Fed is pivoting now in a decisive way towards an easier policy,” said Kourkafas.

The Fed’s decisive move gave investors more reason to believe that a soft landing is still the “base case scenario,” he said, “and likely reduces the downside risks for a recession by having the Fed moving too late or falling behind the curve.”

North of the border, the TSX usually gets a boost from Wall St. strength, said Kourkafas, but on Thursday the index also reflected some optimism of its own as the Bank of Canada has already cut rates three times to address weakening in the economy.

“The Bank of Canada likely now will be emboldened by the Fed,” he said.

“They didn’t want to move too far ahead of the Fed, and now that the Fed moved in a bigger-than-expected way, that provides more room for the Bank of Canada to cut as aggressively as needed to support the economy, given that inflation is within the target range.”

The TSX has also been benefiting from strength in materials after China’s central bank announced several measures meant to support the company’s economy, said Kourkafas.

However, energy stocks dragged on the Canadian index as oil prices fell Thursday following a report that Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial US$100-per-barrel price target for crude as it prepares to increase its output.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.22 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$2.02 at US$67.67 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down seven cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$10.20 at US$2,694.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 15 cents at US$4.64 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stocks also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal sector, while U.S. stock markets were also higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was 143.00 points at 24,048.88.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 174.22 points at 42,088.97. The S&P 500 index was up 10.23 points at 5,732.49, while the Nasdaq composite was up 30.02 points at 18,112.23.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.23 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$1.68 at US$68.01 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down six cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$4.40 at US$2,689.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 13 cents at US$4.62 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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