It’s going to be a logistically complicated week for many parents, as teachers hit the picket lines for a series of rotating one-day strikes. But the disruptions are unlikely to have any measurable impact on Ontario’s economy, experts say.
For one, the number of teachers walking off the job on any given day is extremely small compared to the size of the province’s labour market, said Beata Caranci, chief economist at TD Bank Group.
The Elementary Teachers’ Federation of Ontario (ETFO), for example, represents some 83,000 teachers and educational workers. That’s a drop in the bucket compared to Ontario’s 7.5 million jobs — and ETFO teachers aren’t even going on strike all the same time. Instead, the rotating strikes will be spread out from Monday, Jan. 20 to Thursday, Jan. 23 this week.
Strikes in the public service sector often have less of an impact on economic activity because they tend to simply result in backlogs and delays, said Ian Lee, a professor of management at Carleton University’s Sprott School of Business. A shutdown of a manufacturing plant, by contrast, may cause a company to miss production targets, he added.
In general, it takes a strike that lasts a month or more and involves a sizable chunk of the workforce to have an economic impact large enough to show up in the data, Caranci said.
Still, even last year’s 40-day strike at General Motors produced nary a blip in Canada’s economic data, Caranci noted. That’s even though the walkout paralyzed GM’s U.S. production, with ripple effects spreading across the border to Canadian parts manufacturers and suppliers.
Often, the strikes that do have a palpable economic impact involve the transportation sector, both Caranci and Lee said.
Something like the November CN Rail strike, for example, can have widespread repercussions because virtually anyone trying to move goods across the country would be affected, Caranci said.
The CN strike, for example, threatened crops in both the Prairies, where farmers needed to ship grain, and Quebec, where growers depend on rail service to deliver the propane they need to dry their harvest.
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1:48 CN Rail strike comes at critical time for farm, oil exports
CN Rail strike comes at critical time for farm, oil exports
That’s why governments are more likely to resort to back-to-work legislation in these scenarios, according to Lee. For example, 33 of the 35 times in which Ottawa legislated workers back to work between 1950 and 2011 involved strikes in the transportation and communications sector, Lee’s research shows.
Teachers strikes, by contrast, have a much more muted impact on working parents, who can find alternate childcare arrangements, work from home or take the day off, both Lee and Caranci said.
It helps that teachers’ unions have been been giving families time to plan ahead, Caranci said.
“They’re telegraphing it for people as well. So that’s important.”
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Overall, Lee said, the impact of the strikes is “much more political and psychological than economic.”
0:56 All parties involved have an ‘obligation’ to end teachers’ strike: Stephen Lecce
The ETFO held strikes on Monday in the York Region, Toronto and Ottawa-Carleton school boards. The strikes will hit different boards each day this week as tensions escalate between the union and the province.
The unions say that class sizes and cuts to services are the roadblocks in bargaining, while Education Minister Stephen Lecce insists they’re stuck on wages.
The province released an ad over the weekend suggesting teacher strikes have been a regular issue under every regime since the 1990s. “This needs to stop. #strikeshurtkids” said the ad, which Lecce shared on Twitter.
Only the union representing teachers in Ontario’s French school system has contract talks scheduled with the government, even as they began a work-to-rule campaign last week.
The government announced last week that it would compensate parents affected by the elementary teacher strikes.
1:17 Lecce explains rationale behind province’s child care funding
Lecce explains rationale behind province’s child care funding
Under the plan, parents whose kids aren’t yet enrolled in school but attend school-based child-care centres affected by the strikes will get the most money – $60 per day – while those with children in grades 1 through 7 will get the least – $25.
While parents of secondary school students won’t get any funding, those with children with special needs up to age 21 will get $40 per day – the same amount as parents whose kids are in kindergarten.
The Ministry of Education has said more than 100,000 parents have signed up for that program, which could cost the government $48 million per day if teachers from all school boards were to strike. Still, that’s less than the $60 million per day the government spends in teacher compensation.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.
Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.
Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”
The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.
Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.
“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”
Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.
Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.
Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.
B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.
The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.
“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”
Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.
Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.
The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.
Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.
Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.
NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.
But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.
He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.
Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.
Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.
