Social media channels associated with the Russian state have launched a major effort to exploit last month’s military coup in Niger, seeking to reinforce Moscow’s influence in the country and possibly open opportunities for intervention.

Mohamed Bazoum, the pro-western elected president, was ousted by senior army officers on 26 July and is being held prisoner in his official residence in Niamey. African leaders have threatened military action to oust the new regime but advocates of intervention have so far been unable to rally sufficient support.

Activity focusing on Niger on channels linked to the paramilitary Wagner group declined sharply after the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner’s leader, in a plane crash north of Moscow last week, expert analysis has revealed.

But pro-Russian Telegram channels more broadly have continued to discuss or push disinformation about Niger at generally the same levels as before Prigozhin’s death, according to research by Logically, a technology company tackling potentially harmful online content and disinformation based in the UK, India and US.

Prigozhin, who led a rebellion in Russia in June, spearheaded a disinformation offensive in Africa that played a key role in the expansion of Russian influence in strategic areas such as the Sahel.

Content about Niger across 45 Russian Telegram channels affiliated with the Russian state or Wagner increased by 6,645% in the month after the coup, suggesting a keen interest in Moscow in exploiting the upheaval.

Logically detected only 11 pieces of content relating to Niger in the month before the coup, and 742 pieces of content since. The company identified a significant increase in the amount of content pushing anti-French narratives on these accounts, though it found that negative sentiments towards Paris in Niger, a former French colony, were already widespread before the coup.

The research will reinforce fears that Russia will seek to win influence, lucrative contracts and access to key resources in Niger after the overthrow of Bazoum.

The overthrow of a civilian government by soldiers in neighbouring Mali in 2021 marked a turning point in the battle for influence between Russia and western countries in the Sahel.

The new regime in Mali swiftly concluded a deal with the Wagner group leading to the withdrawal of western forces stationed there, in what was seen as a major victory in Africa for Moscow.

Most observers were taken by surprise by the July coup as Niger was seen as relatively stable, with stronger democratic institutions than many of its neighbours. The country is a key base for western forces and its army has been a partner for the US and other militaries in the troubled Sahel region.

There is no evidence of a concerted Russian effort to destabilise Bazoum’s government immediately before the coup, which analysts have attributed to internal power struggles.

However, Niger has been the focus of influence campaigns on social media before. In mid-February, social media was flooded by a wave of disinformation when Bazoum travelled to Paris for a meeting with Emmanuel Macron.

One video that was circulated widely on TikTok and Facebook in February falsely presented footage filmed during an attempted coup in March 2021 in Niamey as a fresh incident involving firing around the president’s residence. Underneath were postings by contributors that fiercely criticised Bazoum and his support of France.

Other footage was deployed in the same way to mislead viewers. Fake bulletins showed a French attack on a Nigerien military convoy and contained accusations that France’s forces were secretly working with Islamist extremists.

Similar examples found by Logically in recent weeks include a post from a Russian “fact-checking” Telegram channel with more than 600,000 subscribers that claimed instability in Niger and other nations was being fomented by western powers as a consequence of their desire to join the Brics group of developing world countries, which has been broadly supportive of Russia since the outbreak of war in Ukraine.

A second post from a Russian state-media outlet with more than 360,000 subscribers on Telegram amplified claims made by the Nigerien regime that two countries from the Ecowas regional bloc of west African nations were close to launching a military intervention to restore Bazoum to power.

“Social media accounts quite quickly pivoted to Niger … [with] some serious issues with misattributed footage. There is a big audience for pro-Kremlin narratives that contradict western countries’ pro-Ukrainian narratives,” said Kyle Walter, the head of research at Logically.

Social media was blamed for fuelling mounting hostility towards France that led Paris to pull its troops out of Mali and Central African Republic in 2022 and from Burkina Faso this year.

The future of the Wagner group on the continent remains uncertain. The networks of companies set up by Prigozhin have been very successful in extracting gold, diamonds, valuable timber and much else from African countries as well as winning contracts as mercenaries in Central African Republic, Mozambique, Libya and elsewhere.

“It’s unclear whether there will be a wholesale takeover of Wagner by some part of the Russian state or if Moscow will try to use a constellation of other groups as it tries to maintain the influence it has won,” said Dino Mahtani, an independent analyst and veteran observer of African affairs. “There has been a rise in pro-Russian sentiment in many of these countries that Moscow will want to reinforce.”

The continuing effort by accounts linked to the Russian state to exploit the upheaval suggests the Kremlin will seek to ensure continuity as it takes over the influence operations as well as networks and businesses run by Prigozhin.

Several Facebook pages that shared the fake news about recent turmoil in Niger have previously disseminated pro-Russian material or taken aim at the French presence in the Sahel.

One page amplified false reports on Facebook and Twitter in April 2022 that accused French troops of committing atrocities in central Mali and displayed supposed pictures of a mass grave dug up at Gossi, near a French military base that had just been handed back to the Malian army.

The French army revealed it had used a drone to film what appeared to be Russian mercenaries burying corpses several days earlier.

CAR also has hired Russian mercenaries, and there are concerns that Burkina Faso may now do the same.

In January, an animated video showing a Wagner operative helping west African countries fight off zombie French soldiers began circulating on social media and pro-Kremlin Telegram channels. According to the Atlantic Council, a US based thinktank that tracks disinformation, the origin of the video has not been identified but it appears to have first been posted on Twitter on 14 January, then migrated to alternative video platforms before being shared elsewhere.

Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, last week told the BBC he did not think Russia or Wagner had instigated Niger’s coup but they had “tried to take advantage of it”.

Forty-eight hours before Prigozhin’s death, the Wagner boss posted his first video address since leading a short-lived rebellion in Russia in June, appearing in a clip – possibly shot in Mali – on Telegram channels affiliated with the Wagner group.

He said in the clip that Wagner was conducting reconnaissance and search operations and “making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa even more free”.

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