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Russian economy poised to crash as sanctions take their toll – Fox Business

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The Russian economy is poised to collapse this year after the U.S. and its European allies hit the Kremlin with a slew of crippling financial penalties over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. 

Russian manufacturing activity plunged in March, contracting at the sharpest pace since May 2020 as businesses confronted a sharp rise in prices and a big decline in new orders. Western sanctions have effectively isolated Russia from the international financial system and prevented it from accessing new technology.

Experts think that is just the beginning of a major slide for the Russian economy this year.

The Institute for International Finance (IIF), a Washington-based think tank, estimated that Russian gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods produced in a nation, could plunge by 15% in 2022 and 3% in 2023 as a result of the sanctions, wiping out decades of growth. A contraction of that size would be about twice as sharp as the Russian recession during the global financial crisis in 2008. 

RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE: LIVE UPDATES

“Further escalation of the war may bring more boycotts of Russian energy, which would drastically impair Russia’s ability to import goods and services, deepening the recession,” the IIF said in an analyst note last month. 

At the same time, Goldman Sachs forecast the economy could shrink by 10% this year — having previously predicted growth of about 2% — while Capital Economics is forecasting a 12% contraction. Barclays economists, including Brahim Razgallah, said in an analyst note that the Russian economy could plunge by as much as 12.4% in 2022. 

Putin, Vladimir Putin, Russia war, Russian invasion, Russian Ukraine war, war in Ukraine, war, conflict

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with young award-winning culture professionals via videoconference in Moscow, Russia, Friday, March 25, 2022. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, file / AP Images)

“Due to the current geopolitical conditions, we assume sanctions will be long-lasting,” they wrote. 

Western allies targeted Russia with severe financial penalties following the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, including cutting off a key part of the Central Bank of Russia by preventing it from selling dollars, euros and other foreign currencies in its roughly $630 billion reserve stockpile; blocking certain financial institutions from the Swift messaging system for international payments; and sanctioning hundreds Russian lawmakers and elites who have close ties to President Vladimir Putin.

On top of that, hundreds of Western companies — including Coca-Cola, McDonald’s and Goldman Sachs — moved to sever ties with Moscow after the invasion began as they faced intense pressure from investors and consumers. The pace intensified as the unrelenting fighting in Ukraine spawned a massive humanitarian crisis.

Putin has warned that Russia faces rising unemployment and inflation as it confronts the international sanctions, which he has referred to as an “economic blitzkrieg.”

Moscow is also on the brink of a historical debt default, according to Moody’s, because it attempted to service its dollar-denominated bonds in rubles. It would make the first time Russia has defaulted on foreign debt since the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution.

Pedestrians pass the entrance to a branch of Uniastrum Bank LLC, part of the Bank of Cyprus Group, in Moscow, Russia, on Tuesday, March 19, 2013. A double-tax avoidance treaty and low tax rates have made Cyprus the conduit of choice for Russians movi (Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Russia made a payment due on April 4 on two sovereign bonds in rubles rather than the dollars it agreed to pay under the terms of the securities.

Russia “therefore may be considered a default under Moody’s definition if not cured by 4 May, which is the end of the grace period,” Moody’s said on Thursday. “The bond contracts have no provision for repayment in any other currency other than dollars.”

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Finance Minister Anton Siluanov told Russian state media earlier this month that if the Kremlin is forced to default on its debt, it will take legal action.

“We will sue, because we undertook all necessary action so that investors would receive their payments,” Siluanov told pro-Kremlin Izvestia newspaper. “We will show the court proof of our payments, to confirm our efforts to pay in rubles, just as we did in foreign currency. It won’t be a simple process.” 

It is unclear who Russia would sue.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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