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Russia's economy is surprisingly tiny. Here's why it matters so much to you – CNN

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New York (CNN Business)Russia isn’t a superpower, at least not when it comes to the global economy.

Its gross domestic product puts it as only the 12th largest economy in the world according to the International Monetary Fund, about 25% smaller than Italy and more than 20% smaller than Canada, two countries with a fraction of its population.
So in the face of its invasion of Ukraine, why is the West reluctant to hit it with the full range of available economic sanctions as has been done with other rogue states?
The answer is simple: Oil and natural gas.
Russia is the world’s largest exporter of natural gas and one of the largest exporters of oil. Some experts say cutting off those exports could drive up the prices of those commodities as much as 50% by some estimates, far more than far more modest single-digit spikes in prices experienced this past week.
“This is not North Korea. It’s not Venezuela. It’s not Iran,” said Josh Lipsky, director of the GeoEconomics Center at the Atlantic Council, an international think tank. “Because of the energy [Russia] exports, it is systematically important and especially important to the world energy market.”
The sanctions announced this week on Russia included carve outs for its energy industry. Lipsky argues if the West were to ban Russia’s energy exports, it would drive up energy prices in a way which would benefit the Russian economy rather than hurt it. He said Russia would find other buyers for its energy, such as in China, and it would have more cash coming in, not less.
“Yes, a ban on energy exports would feel like an extreme measure,” he said. “But would it actually have the desired effect?”
Right now European countries, which are far more dependent on Russian oil and natural gas, are not willing to take that step, said Gary Clyde Hufauer, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, an advocate of tougher measures against Russia’s energy exports.
“Europe would have had to resort to price controls and rationing,” he said. “That would be very unpopular. They weren’t willing to pay the price.”
Russia also has a rich supply of other natural resources, including lumber and many minerals. It is the second-largest producer of titanium, which is crucial for aircraft production, and Ukraine is the fifth-largest producer of the metal. Boeing could be in trouble if supplies are cut off, CEO Dave Calhoun conceded on a January earnings call.
“As long as the geopolitical situation stays tame, no problem. If it doesn’t, we’re protected for quite a while, but not forever,” he said at the time.
But Russia is not a huge market for western nations’ exports. The US exported only $6.4 billion in goods to Russia last year, according to Commerce Department data, which may sound like a lot but is actually less than one fifth of the exports going to tiny Belgium. (By comparison, US goods exported to China last year came to $151 billion.)
“Russia is incredibly unimportant in the global economy except for oil and gas,” Jason Furman, who chaired the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama administration, told The New York Times this week. “It’s basically a big gas station.”
And the nation which was the first to put both a satellite and a man in outer space has fallen far behind the rest of the world in technology.
Russia remains a leader in military technology and artificial intelligence, not to mention cryptocurrency, Hufauer said. But it depends on imports for most other forms of a technology, rather than internal production. The sanctions imposed on technology exports to Russia will hurt its economy.
The big question is how long will the sanctions against a pariah nation continue?
Lipsky and Hufauer both believe they will be in place for years, though not necessarily the many decades US sanctions against North Korea and Cuba have remained in place. And the longer sanctions are enforced, the more damage to the Russian economy,
“Sanctions can take a long time to bite,” said Lipsky.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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