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Economy

Saskatoon's economy 80 per cent back from pandemic plunge, study says – Saskatoon StarPhoenix

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While many key sectors have completely recovered, the Saskatoon region still has nearly 4,000 fewer people working than before the pandemic.

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Saskatoon’s economy still needs to make up 20 per cent to be fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, a new study shows.

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Alex Fallon, president and CEO of the Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority, said that represents better news than he expected at this point of the pandemic.

An online SREDA tracker of key metrics measuring economic recovery shows that the region’s economy is now considered 79.3 per cent recovered, based on measuring 15 key economic sectors. Nine of the 15 sectors are now considered recovered, Fallon said.

The overall recovery has improved from 67.1 per cent at the end of this year’s second quarter in June.

“I think overall I would take that, if you’d asked me at the start of COVID where we’d be in about a year and a half,” Fallon said. “So it’s creeping up, which is good.”

Despite the positive economic news, employment remains a challenge with 3,900 fewer people working in August — 170,800 — than were working in February 2020. Job numbers cratered in June 2020 to 153,600 before bouncing back to 172,400 in May.

Fallon described the decline in jobs over the summer as “a little bit curious.” The unemployment rate in the Saskatoon region at the end of last month was 8.1 per cent.

The region’s gross domestic product has bounced back to an adjusted 95.8 per cent of pre-pandemic output, to $22.3 billion.

Some sectors, like retail sales and manufacturing shipments, are considered completely recovered, although neither experienced a huge drop during the pandemic. The number of active businesses also bounced back to 7,905 in June from more than 800 fewer in June 2020.

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Fallon said there’s a connection between the drop in jobs and the new businesses.

“It’s an interesting thing because when the economy slows down, actually, entrepreneurship goes up because people are worried about their job security,” he said.

The SREDA study projects Saskatoon’s economy will grow by 5.4 per cent this year, behind the 6.8 per cent growth rate for Saskatchewan and 6.3 per cent for Canada. Fallon attributed the lower Saskatoon numbers to the city’s larger hospitality sector, which is taking longer to recover.

Airport passenger traffic rose in August to its highest level during the pandemic (nearly 76,000), but remained well below the 127,387 in February 2020.

Hotel occupancy also hit its highest point during the pandemic in August, at 59.8 per cent, up substantially from a low of 11.5 per cent in April 2020. This sector is deemed 58.3 per cent recovered.

Investment in building construction soared in the first quarter of this year to peak at $196.7 million in March before dropping to $103.4 million in July.

The Saskatoon zone continues to experience the highest COVID-19 rates of any urban area in Canada. As of Thursday, the zone led the province with 1,036 active cases.

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A help wanted sign hangs in a business window along Broadway Avenue in Saskatoon on  Oct. 14, 2021.
A help wanted sign hangs in a business window along Broadway Avenue in Saskatoon on  Oct. 14, 2021. Photo by Matt Smith /Saskatoon StarPhoenix

SASKATOON STATS

Here are the the key recovery statistics as of Sept. 30 from a report by the Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority, with the most recent data and the low points listed in parentheses:

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— Economy 79.3 per cent recovered (combining 15 sectors)

— GDP 95.8 per cent ($22 billion, up from $19.6 billion in the second quarter of 2020)

— Employment 81.5 per cent (170,800 in August, up from 153,600 in June 2020)

— Unemployment 80 per cent (8.1 per cent unemployment rate)

— Participation rate 41.2 per cent (67.9 per cent in August, up from 66.5 per cent in June 2020)

— Retail sales 100 per cent ($8.3 billion, up from $6.7 billion in the second quarter of 2020)

— Building construction investment 65.1 per cent ($103.43 million in July, up from $100.8 million in April 2020)

— Airport passenger traffic 38.3 per cent (75,857 in August, up from 2,925 in April 2020)

— Hotel occupancy 58.2 per cent (59.8 per cent in August, up from 11.5 per cent in April 2020)

— Active businesses 100 per cent (7,905 in June, up from 7,068 in May 2020)

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  2. Premier Scott Moe holds a press conference regarding COVID-19 vaccinations. Photo taken in Saskatoon on Thursday, Sept. 30, 2021.

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The news seems to be flying at us faster all the time. From COVID-19 updates to politics and crime and everything in between, it can be hard to keep up. With that in mind, the Saskatoon StarPhoenix has created an Afternoon Headlines newsletter that can be delivered daily to your inbox to help make sure you are up to date with the most vital news of the day. Click here to subscribe.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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