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Scotiabank expects credit losses to worsen with over $200B in mortgages coming up for renewal by 2026

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Scotiabank saw a rise in mortgage delinquencies in the fourth quarter and said it’s bracing for further credit losses due to higher-for-longer interest rates and a wave of upcoming mortgage renewals.

The bank saw the percentage of its mortgage portfolio that is now 90+ days delinquent rise to 0.16%, up from 0.14% in the third quarter and just 0.09% a year ago.

Across all of its credit portfolios, the delinquency rate has risen to 0.25%, up from 0.15% in 2022.

“Delinquencies continue to trend up across all products in Canada,” noted Chief Risk Officer Phil Thomas. “Quarter-over-quarter, we saw a deterioration in HELOCs and auto, increasing 9 basis points and 6 basis points, respectively.”

As a result, the bank increased its provision for credit losses (PCLs), which are funds financial institutions set aside to cover any loan losses that may arise.

The bank set aside $1.3 billion in PCLs in the quarter, up $437 million or 53% from the last quarter.

“Given the macroeconomic backdrop of higher unemployment levels, higher-for-longer interest rates and upcoming renewals of fixed-rate mortgages in Canada, we have focused on strengthening the balance sheet,” said Thomas. “It is important to note that while delinquencies are still within historical norms, consumer health in Canada continues to weaken, and we expect households may continue to experience financial pressure through 2024 with the build in [PCLs] addressing this.”

He said that includes “looking forward in terms of how fixed-rate mortgage customers are going to start to reprice in the Canadian environment over the next year or two years.”

Scotiabank confirmed that over $200 billion worth of its mortgage portfolio will be coming up for renewal by 2026.

“We’re very conscious of the fact that in 2024 we have about 10% of our fixed-rate portfolios repricing,” Thomas said. “And that moves into 20% in 2025 and another 20% in 2026.”

As part of its forecasting for future credit losses, the bank assumed the unemployment rate rising to between 7% and 8% over the next 12 months. The unemployment rate is currently at 5.7%, up from 5% where it started the year.

“[The] unemployment rate has a significant impact on our models, but I would also look at the interest rate impact and that’s the result of higher-for-longer, particularly on some of the retail models,” Thomas added.

Variable-rate customers “feeling the pinch”

Scotiabank confirmed it has been monitoring its variable-rate mortgage portfolio “very closely” in the wake of the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes.

Unlike some of the other big banks, Scotiabank is the largest mortgage lender that offers adjustable-rate variable mortgages, which means its borrowers see their monthly payments increase every the Bank of Canada’s overnight target rate rises.

It found that its variable-rate clients had been cutting back on discretionary spending (-11% year-over-year) to a greater extent compared to its fixed-rate clients (-5%).

“What we’re seeing is those customers are feeling the pinch now and they’re making trade-offs,” said Thomas.

He also noted that the clients generally still have a savings buffer that is so far helping them cope with higher monthly payments.

“Despite the fact that we’ve seen…savings buffers decreasing, there’s still a two-times payment buffer on the variable-rate mortgage portfolio today,” he added.

Scotiabank earnings highlights

Q4 net income: $1.39 billion (-33% Y/Y)
Earnings per share: $1.02

Q4 2022 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
Residential mortgage portfolio $302B $294B $290B
Percentage of mortgage portfolio uninsured 72% 74% 74%
Avg. loan-to-value (LTV) of portfolio 49% 47% 49%
Portfolio mix: percentage with variable rates 37% 34% 33%
90+ days past due 0.09% 0.14% 0.16%
Mortgage portfolio gross impaired loans 0.26% 0.45% 0.45%
Canadian banking net interest margin (NIM) 2.26% 2.35% 2.47%
Total provisions for credit losses $529M $819M $1.26B
Source: Scotiabank Q4 Investor Presentation

Conference Call

  • “Net interest margin was up 21 bps to 2.47% on “higher loan margins and favourable changes in business mix,” the bank said.
  • The bank took actions to strengthen its capital position to meet Thomson’s January 2023 commitment to a CET1 ratio of greater than 12%, up from 11.5% at the same time last year.
  • Scotiabank saw its deposits across the bank increase 9% year-over-year, bringing the loan-to-deposit ratio to 110% from 116%.
  • “Our current balance sheet strength, structural interest rate positioning and deliberate approach to loan growth reflect our cautious near-term outlook,” said Thomson.
  • The bank saw a 4% decline in its residential mortgage business, although Scotia has been clear in previous earnings calls that it wanted to intentionally slow its mortgage book and put a greater emphasis on growing deposits to lower its reliance on wholesale funding from larger investors.
    • As a result, it says it’s seen mortgage profitability rise “significantly” in the quarter as it shifts from “just a monoline mortgage opportunity” to an increased emphasis on product cross-selling.

Source: Q4 Conference Call


Featured image by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Note: Transcripts are provided as-is from the companies and/or third-party sources, and their accuracy cannot be 100% assured.

 

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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