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Scotia's top 10 investment themes for 2021 include 'the hunt for yield intensifies' – The Globe and Mail

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Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow

The equity strategy team led by Hugo Ste-Marie at Scotia Capital published 10 Themes for 2021 – Unleashing Excess Cash Tuesday morning.

The top themes are,

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“1. Piles of stacked cash could soon turn into hot money. 2. Synchronized downturn, synchronized upturn 3. The road to US$200 EPS 4. Income scarcity: The hunt for yield intensifies 5. Bond yields: The great normalization 6. Go Global 7. Small could be big in 2021 8. Hard assets shining, CAD roaring 9. Sector rotation favors cyclicals 10. No Value left behind [and]11. Bonus – Capital markets spring back to life”

Here’s an excerpt from the section on yield scarcity,

“Interest rates on cash deposits and government bond yields should remain quite anemic next year. As traditional sources of income can’t fulfill their role anymore, the hunt for yield will likely intensify and investors will have to look for alternatives. Equities appear an obvious choice. After a challenging year, dividend growth should resume in 2021 on the back of improving profitability trends. Moreover, dividend yields have rarely been this attractive versus government bonds in over half a century”’

” @SBarlow_ROB Scotia: “10 Themes for 2021 – Unleashing Excess Cash” – (research excerpt) Twitter

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Morgan Stanley has updated its “Fresh Money Buy List” of top U.S. stocks picks, removing S&P Global Inc. because of “regulatory and/or policy restrictions”.

The remaining list consists of Ally Financial, Citizens Financial Group Inc., Walt Disney Co., Humana Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Linde PLC, Mastercard Inc., PVH Corp., and T-Mobile U.S. Inc.

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“@SBarlow_ROB MS drops S&P Global from its Fresh Money Buy List of U.S. picks” – (table, including performance) Twitter

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Also from Morgan Stanley, the technology and telecom research team led by Katy Huberty published a report outlining the bright outlook for 5G-related stocks and provided a list of stock ideas (my emphasis),

“We are buyers of stocks exposed to stronger than expected consumer 5G demand. Consumer smartphone purchase intentions are the strongest in recent history according to our AlphaWise survey of nearly 3,500 consumers in the US and China. The main driver is demand for 5G, which is now the primary reason consumers are upgrading in the US and China – a comparatively bigger catalyst than any other recent technology upgrade and a more bullish signal relative to investors’ more cautious stance. We highlight key takeaways across our global technology and telco services teams and recommend owning a group of stocks that we view best positioned for 5G infrastructure investment and smartphone demand upside.”

The top 10 5G-related stock ideas are Apple Inc., T-Mobile US Inc., Qualcomm Inc., Delta Electronics Inc., Samsung Electronics Co Ltd., Sunny Optical Technology Company Ltd., China Mobile Ltd., Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd., Murata Manufacturing Co. Ltd. and Ericsson.

“@SBarlow_ROB MS: Top 10 5G-related stock picks” – (table) Twitter

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New column from me: “What investors can learn from the top performing U.S. value stocks” – Inside the Market

Diversion: The Ringer’s panel rewatches and discusses the 1980s movie Wall Street – The Ringer (podcast)

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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