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Shaken by Team Exodus, Brazil Economy Chief Will Stay in Job – Yahoo Canada Finance

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Shaken by Team Exodus, Brazil Economy Chief Will Stay in Job

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(Bloomberg) — A series of high-profile resignations from Brazil’s economic team have left Economy Minister Paulo Guedes shaken but committed to keep pushing for reforms in the government, according to two people close to him.

The losses are also the most visible sign yet that Guedes’ ambitious economic agenda is suffering a downgrade in size and scope, although his austerity drive received a crucial backing from President Jair Bolsonaro and congressional leaders.

In a joint statement to the press late on Wednesday, Bolsonaro, Lower House Speaker Rodrigo Maia and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre pledged to uphold Guedes’ fiscal plans, and in particular a spending cap law that freezes public expenditures for two decades. It was a rare show of support for the minister, nearly 24 hours after news of an exodus from his team raised questions about the future of his reforms.

On Tuesday night Guedes lost both the secretary responsible for his privatization plans and another in charge of overhauling Brazil’s costly public sector. The two quit saying they were unhappy with the pace of reforms, some of which have ground to a halt after the pandemic forced the government to shift resources to protect vulnerable workers and companies. Their departure comes after three other losses suffered by the economic team over the past three months.

Guedes, a University of Chicago-trained economist who became a market darling by promising to restore discipline to Brazil’s public finances, has no intention of leaving his job, according to the people close to him.

Instead, the minister will remain focused on the most urgent task at hand — an overhaul of Brazil’s tax system he deems essential to boost the post-pandemic economic recovery, said the people, who requested anonymity because they’re not allowed to discuss the topic in public.

Read More: Brazil’s Economic Team in Disarray After Two High Profile Losses

The resignations of Privatizations Secretary Salim Mattar and Paulo Uebel, the special secretary of de-bureaucratization, could, in fact, make privatizations and a reform of the public sector more realistic and easy to move forward, although not as bold as Guedes had envisaged them, the people added. Both men made their careers in private companies and struggled to understand the political timing and bureaucracy inherent in public administration.

“The government had an agenda and chose the people to implement it,” said Rafael Cortez, a political scientist with Tendencias consultancy. “The change of key names represents a break in expectations about the agenda, as well as the timing of its implementation.”

Shaken, Steadfast

Guedes’s dampened mood was visible late on Tuesday when he announced the departure of his teammates, including his close friend Mattar. The minister said the successive resignations felt like a “stampede” and added that he understood Mattar’s discomfort in the government.

Yet he promised to fight back by pushing forward his reform agenda and made a strong defense of his plan to reimpose financial austerity to government finances in 2021, following a year of record budget deficits needed to fight the coronavirus crisis.

Read More: The World’s Most Reluctant Keynesian Spends Big in Brazil

Bolsonaro has been suffering strong pressure from lawmakers and even some cabinet members who want him to boost public investment to the detriment of a law that freezes government expenditures for two decades.

Guedes’s priority, according to the two people close to him, is to defend that law, known as the spending cap, which is considered by investors as the country’s last line of defense against runaway budget deficits.

Earlier on Wednesday, Bolsonaro had already said his government remains committed to fiscal responsibility and the spending cap, even at a moment when a tighter budget leads ministers to seek more funds for their projects.

(Updates with statements from Bolsonaro and heads of both houses of Congress in second paragraph.)

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

September merchandise trade deficit narrows to $1.3 billion: Statistics Canada

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the country’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in September as imports fell more than exports.

The result compared with a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for August. The initial estimate for August released last month had shown a deficit of $1.1 billion.

Statistics Canada says the results for September came as total exports edged down 0.1 per cent to $63.9 billion.

Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.4 per cent as exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, decreased 15.4 per cent. Exports of energy products dropped 2.6 per cent as lower prices weighed on crude oil exports.

Meanwhile, imports for September fell 0.4 per cent to $65.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped 12.7 per cent.

In volume terms, total exports rose 1.4 per cent in September while total imports were essentially unchanged in September.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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