Economy

Sinking U.S. economy hasn’t hit bottom yet – MarketWatch

Published

4 years ago

April 25, 2020

The coronavirus capsized what had been the longest expansion in U.S. history. Now the wait is on to see how far the economy sinks before it finds bottom.

A few dimly hopeful signs emerged last week as a pair of reports showed consumer confidence stabilizing toward the end of the April, largely on the flickering hope that the economy will start to rebound during the summer. Another poll found that Americans think four of five jobs lost due the coronavirus will return.

Even just a month ago, many economists might have agreed, but now they see a longer slog ahead. The era of social distancing spawned by the COVID-19 pandemic will reshape economies, they say, and leave many industries that rely on large crowds gasping for economic breath. They include retailers, restaurants, hotels, airlines, resorts, casinos and sports venues.

“I think there is going to be a longer adjustment process during the summer,” said Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer of CIBC Private Wealth Management. “The bigger question is, when those businesses reopen do their customers show up. And do workers want to come back.”

Read: Why the U.S. economy’s recovery from the coronavirus is likely to be long and painful

But that’s in the future. The immediate present still shows the economy descending to depths it hasn’t experienced at least since the 1930s Great Depression.

Read: 26 million Americans and counting have lost their jobs to the coronavirus

The initial look at first-quarter gross domestic product, for example, is expected to show a 3.3% decline in economic growth, according to a MarketWatch survey. Such a drop would be the deepest since 2009 during the Great Recession, but it pales in comparison to a predicted plunge of 25% or more in the second quarter.

See:MarketWatch Economic Calendar

Next week will bring the most up-to-date readings on the U.S. economy’s performance in the second quarter.

Auto sales, manufacturing activity and consumer confidence are all expected to sink in April and another several million people likely applied for unemployment benefits, bringing job losses during the pandemic to almost 30 million.

Read:26 million Americans and counting have lost their jobs to the coronavirus

Also:Millions of workers who’ve applied for jobless benefits still not getting money

The Federal Reserve is also slated to hold one of its regular policy meetings and Chairman Jerome Powell will brief the public afterward. The central bank has already unleashed a blizzard of strategies to keep the economy afloat, putting potentially trillions of dollars at work.

Read:Durable-goods orders plunge 14% in March as the coronavirus starts to bite

Powell is unlikely to pull out any other weapons from the Fed’s growing arsenal on Wednesday, but Wall Street
DJIA,
+1.10%
is eager to hear what he has to say about a potential recovery later in the year. So far he’s adopted a cautiously optimistic tone, but it’s no longer a widely shared view.

See: Here’s a breakdown of the Fed’s rescue programs to keep credit flowing during the coronavirus pandemic

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

Source link

Economy

S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

Published

4 days ago

October 11, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

Source link

Economy

Economy adds 47,000 jobs in September, unemployment rate falls to 6.5 per cent

Published

4 days ago

October 11, 2024

Anne Joseph

OTTAWA – The economy added 47,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate declined for the first time since January to 6.5 per cent, Statistics Canada reported on Friday.

The agency says youth and women aged 25 to 54 drove employment gains last month, while full-time employment saw its largest gain since May 2022.

The overall job gains followed four consecutive months of little change, the agency said.

The unemployment rate has been steadily climbing over the past year and a half, hitting 6.6 per cent in August.

Inflation that month was two per cent, the lowest level in more than three years as lower gas prices helped it hit the Bank of Canada’s inflation target.

The central bank has cut its key interest rate three times this year, and is widely expected to keep cutting as inflation has subsided and the broader trend points to a weakening in the labour market.

Despite the job gains in September, the employment rate was lower in the month, reflecting continued growth in Canada’s population.

Statistics Canada said since the employment rate saw its most recent peak at 62.4 per cent in January and February 2023, it’s been following a downward trend as population growth has outpaced employment growth.

On a year-over-year basis, employment was up by 1.5 per cent in September, while the population aged 15 and older in the Labour Force Survey grew 3.6 per cent.

The information, culture and recreation industry saw employment rise 2.6 per cent between August and September, after seven months of little change, Statistics Canada said, with the increase concentrated in Quebec.

The wholesale and retail trade industry saw its first increase since January at 0.8 per cent, while employment in professional, scientific and technical services was up 1.1 per cent.

Average hourly wages among employees rose 4.6 per cent year-over-year to $35.59, a slowdown from the five-per-cent increase in August.

The unemployment rate among Black and South Asian Canadians between 25 and 54 rose year-over-year in September and was significantly higher than the unemployment rate for people who were not racialized and not Indigenous.

Black Canadians in that age group saw their unemployment rate rise to 11 per cent last month while for South Asian Canadians it was 7.3 per cent. For non-racialized, non-Indigenous people, it rose to 4.4 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Source link

Economy

S&P/TSX composite little changed in late-morning trading, U.S. stock markets down

Published

5 days ago

October 10, 2024

Anne Joseph

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was little changed in late-morning trading as the financial sector fell, but energy and base metal stocks moved higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.05 of a point at 24,224.95.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 94.31 points at 42,417.69. The S&P 500 index was down 10.91 points at 5,781.13, while the Nasdaq composite was down 29.59 points at 18,262.03.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.71 cents US compared with 73.05 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was up US$1.69 at US$74.93 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up a penny at US$2.67 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$14.70 at US$2,640.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up two cents at US$4.42 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 10, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

Source link