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Slumping retail sales could keep Bank of Canada interest rate on hold

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Retail sales flatlined in the second quarter while sales volume dropped 0.8 per cent, Statistics Canada said on Aug. 23, signs that economic activity is weakening as the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes take a deeper hold.

Sales increased 0.1 per cent  to $65.9 million in June, led by spending at auto and parts dealers, which grew 2.5 per cent. Excluding those sales and those at gas stations, core retail sales decreased 0.9 per cent in June and 0.2 per cent in volume terms.

“The latest data continues to point to weaker economic growth going forward, which is in line with what the Bank of Canada is expecting,” Desjardins economist Tiago Figueiredo said in a note. “As such, the latest data will probably leave central bankers comfortable keeping rates on hold for the remainder of the year.”Annualized retail sales in the second quarter dropped 0.1 per cent, a “notable step down” from the 2.6 per cent recorded in the first quarter, Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Maria Solovieva said in a note.

Policymakers will be scrutinizing retail data for signs of excess demand when they meet for the Sept. 6 interest rate decision. The Bank of Canada has raised interest rates 10 times since early 2022 to bring supply and demand back in balance, but a resurgence in inflation in July has added a layer of uncertainty to the central bank’s next move.

Still, economists are calling for another pause in September as unemployment has increased by half a percentage point since April to 5.5 per cent in July, suggesting people’s spending power is dwindling, although Statistics Canada’s advance estimate of retail sales for July shows a 0.4 per cent increase.

In June, sales at gas stations rose 0.3 per cent due to higher prices, but dropped 1.4 per cent in volume terms. Food and beverage purchases also declined in the final month of the second quarter, dropping 0.9 per cent at grocery stores, while alcohol sales declined 2.8 per cent. General merchandise store sales dropped 1.4 per cent.E-commerce sales grew 1.1 per cent to $3.7 billion in June on a seasonally adjusted basis, accounting for 5.7 per cent of retail trade, compared to 5.6 per cent in May.

The Canadian Chamber of Commerce tracks its own set of consumer spending data and July’s figures show that nominal spending was up more than two per cent on an annual basis.

Chief economist Stephen Tapp said the chamber’s numbers shows that strong population growth fuelled by immigration and higher inflation have kept the economy chugging along. But high-frequency data shows that consumer spending pulled back by mid-June and into July, as people began to feel squeezed by interest rates, which are now at five per cent.

Tapp advised businesses to keep an eye on costs as sales are likely to come under pressure if the economy continues to slow.

“The Bank of Canada should be patient, and cautious about additional rate hikes. Although underlying inflation pressures remain problematic, we don’t need more medicine,” he said in a statement. “We just need more time for the earlier medicine to work its way through the economy.”TD’s spending data shows Canadians remained resilient in July and the effects of federal grocery rebates could cause spending to rebound, said Solovieva.

“However, by demonstrating more resilience, (consumers will) pay the price of higher cost of future borrowing (and spending),” she said, adding that mortgages and their renewals will eat into discretionary budgets. “This means that retail sales could be the next in line to roll over.”

• Email: bbharti@postmedia.com

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Cineplex reports $24.7M Q3 loss on Competition Tribunal penalty

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TORONTO – Cineplex Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year ago as it was hit by a fine for deceptive marketing practices imposed by the Competition Tribunal.

The movie theatre company says it lost $24.7 million or 39 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $29.7 million or 40 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The results in the most recent quarter included a $39.2-million provision related to the Competition Tribunal decision, which Cineplex is appealing.

The Competition Bureau accused the company of misleading theatregoers by not immediately presenting them with the full price of a movie ticket when they purchased seats online, a view the company has rejected.

Revenue for the quarter totalled $395.6 million, down from $414.5 million in the same quarter last year, while theatre attendance totalled 13.3 million for the quarter compared with nearly 15.7 million a year earlier.

Box office revenue per patron in the quarter climbed to $13.19 compared with $12 in the same quarter last year, while concession revenue per patron amounted to $9.85, up from $8.44 a year ago.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CGX)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Restaurant Brands reports US$357M Q3 net income, down from US$364M a year ago

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TORONTO – Restaurant Brands International Inc. reported net income of US$357 million for its third quarter, down from US$364 million in the same quarter last year.

The company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, says its profit amounted to 79 cents US per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with 79 cents US per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue for the parent company of Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs, totalled US$2.29 billion, up from US$1.84 billion in the same quarter last year.

Consolidated comparable sales were up 0.3 per cent.

On an adjusted basis, Restaurant Brands says it earned 93 cents US per diluted share in its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of 90 cents US per diluted share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents US per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:QSR)

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Electric and gas utility Fortis reports $420M Q3 profit, up from $394M a year ago

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Fortis Inc. reported a third-quarter profit of $420 million, up from $394 million in the same quarter last year.

The electric and gas utility says the profit amounted to 85 cents per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30, up from 81 cents per share a year earlier.

Fortis says the increase was driven by rate base growth across its utilities, and strong earnings in Arizona largely reflecting new customer rates at Tucson Electric Power.

Revenue in the quarter totalled $2.77 billion, up from $2.72 billion in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Fortis says it earned 85 cents per share in its latest quarter, up from an adjusted profit of 84 cents per share in the third quarter of 2023.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 82 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:FTS)

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